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well despite what your political views are here is a tip . spend more time learning to better yourself and growing financially than you do trying to cure the ills of the world . it is okay to have a cause but not at the expenses of taking control of the things you personally can control and making things happen for yourself .
except for being drafted and Vietnam no political party ever changed my daily life , not in almost 50 years of working . i ultimately was responsible for everything good or bad in my life and if you never told me who was in power i would never know anything changed .
i have near zero interest in politics and always did for this reason .
democrat's are moron's with no ideas, and republicans are moron's with bad ideas . that sums up my political views .
as you guys know i grew up in a nyc housing project . i totally spent my life committed to never going back to raise my family in one . that has been my lifelong focus , not whether the fed is the good guys or the bad guys or trying to predict what interest rates are going to do because you can't predict .
i rather learn how to best double team my efforts so while i work for my money , my money works for me , taking the little bits i do manage to save and through the best compounding i can learn to get ,compound that money in to more money . as you get more the deals and investments can get bigger .
no one can predict markets and when to bail or get in . just look at morningstars investor return vs the actual fund return . investors as a group always get less as they pick the wrong points to get in and out .
typically it take a nervous nellie type to bail out in a bull market . on the other hand it takes nerves of steel to buy back in when markets are plunging to hell . rarely does one person have both qualities .
usually those who bail out wait for the all clear sign to get back in . the markets turn fast well before there are any signs anything changed in the economy .
so they wait for the sucker rally to fall back . instead it goes up more .so they wait and wait and eventually buy back in higher than they bailed .
the numbers show this to be true in fund after fund .
just investing and letting things flow with the tide ends up growing much more money than thinking you will time things .
i leave the timing to my fun money and quite a few things i made a profit it in would have done better if i just stayed put , rather than me darting in and out anyway . but i like the fun so i consider my trading entertainment . the fact i may profit is a bonus .
the best use of your time is to learn about retirement planning early on because the building blocks for the best tax structure has to be put in place early on .
by the time you are close the opportunity to structure things is gone .
we discuss all the steps in the c-d financial and retirement forums all the time .
Last edited by mathjak107; 10-02-2017 at 03:56 AM..
you are right , but it was dragged off in that direction because of mis-beliefs about rates and markets ..
but you know what ? most of the public is financially ignorant and have no clue about things . the more education someone who can benefit picks up by accident perhaps the better for them .
never forget , we only know what we know and we can't do a thing about getting educated if we don't know we don't know something .
so yeah , it drifted off topic but if anyone gives their personal situation a thought about some things that were said or stated about rates then it is a good thing .
you are right , but it was dragged off in that direction .
but you know what ? most of the public is financially ignorant and have no clue about things . the more education someone who can benefit picks up by accident perhaps the better for them .
never forget , we only know what we know and we can't do a thing about getting educated if we don't know we don't know something .
And I don't disagree with anything you mention of in this thread other than I do think we can use empirical evidence from central banking outcomes on past financial crisis to dictate future decision making (in the aggregate). While understanding that there will always be many unknown changing variables.
that pretty much sums it up . no one knows how anything will play out .for anyone to make statements like the fed raising short term rates will deflate assets is just showing they know very little about markets and asset pricing .
the real answer is each case is different and all the other factors come in to play and ultimately it is what investors think , not the fed . home prices soared with 6-7% mortgages in 2006-2007 . in the 1980's prices soared with 8% mortgages as well as stock markets were breaking new highs .
right now raising short term rates has been a positive thing for bonds and stocks . it is believed inflationary pressures will be kept in check . from the looks of the futures markets , today may be new highs for the major index's.
bull markets in anything have never ended with so many being as pessimistic as they are now .
Last edited by mathjak107; 10-02-2017 at 07:41 AM..
I believe there are deflationary pressures in the economy and that the fed is keeping rates low to counteract this. Outside of real estate and health care, most things are dropping in price. Oil in particular has fallen which tends to cause everything else to fall. Deflation is considered a serious problem in the economy (I won't get into why). But the fed tries to keep a modest inflation rate (around 3%) and I believe they honestly aim for this. Whether or not you agree that 3% inflation is ideal, the fed is aiming for that and not to make the rich richer, real estate rise or some other agenda, imo.
rents are a big cost and they have been escalating as well as healthcare so those have been offsetting a lot of drops in energy costs .
one thing i did notice is fidelity's planner was using they had a 7.50% inflation adjustment on healthcare costs and 5.50% on long term care costs . the numbers have now come down and they are both 5.50% now . of course with healthcare it seems we pay the same or close in premium each year but have less coverage .
The reason for extreme real estate costs in NYC is, as usual, supply and demand.
There is a lot of demand to live in NYC; lots of jobs, lots of all kinds of amenities, walkability, low crime, etc. Yet, the supply side is a battle between developers and various anti-development community groups/politicians, and ancient legacy NYC zoning,
democrat's are moron's with no ideas, and republicans are moron's with bad ideas . that sums up my political views .
I LIKE that. We seemingly have a good base on which to build.
Quote:
The reason for extreme real estate costs in NYC is, as usual, supply and demand.
There are WAYS to influence supply and demand: they are not sacrosanct concepts, except maybe in the antiquated mind of Adam Smith.
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