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Old 02-02-2018, 11:56 AM
 
25,539 posts, read 21,068,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronxguyanese View Post
The Feds did a good job on not raising interest rates. Why? The economy is still on shaky ground and we are only a decade out of the crash of 2008. Even though jobs have grown, and people are working again, wages are still down, for many Americans. Economic recovery takes time. I'm also waiting for the crash so I can reinvest in the economy. The stock market is too high to invest at the moment for many. When the crash happened a decade ago, NYC real estate weathered the storm and prices only dropped minimally and prices shot right back up a year or two later. While most of America real estate prices were down. Places like Vegas can get a home in a mid range neighborhood for 100k, while in Detroit and Milwaukee homes were going for 30k to 60k.
Detroit and Milwaukee were essentially dead places no one wanted to move to.
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Old 02-02-2018, 12:45 PM
 
Location: Bronx
16,217 posts, read 21,057,326 times
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Stock market just fell by 500 points.
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Old 02-02-2018, 01:01 PM
 
Location: Northeast states
12,764 posts, read 10,891,039 times
Reputation: 3906
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeventhFloor View Post
You ever been to London? I've been twice. Don't worry about me, I will find my way.
London have housing crisis, Brexit, problems with immigration, some Britishs might come off as reserved
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Old 02-02-2018, 04:41 PM
 
1,721 posts, read 998,286 times
Reputation: 1035
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronxguyanese View Post
Stock market just fell by 500 points.
Yeah, I’m waiting can’t afford a renovated three family even in east New York right now. Can’t believe they want over a million dollars. Was looking into the Bronx but don’t want to deal with section 8 tenants.

And I don’t think the tax reform will do anything for the economy when everything continues to go up in price as well (healthcare, housing, college education etc).
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Old 02-02-2018, 04:42 PM
 
92,513 posts, read 90,110,842 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronxguyanese View Post
Stock market just fell by 500 points.
almost 700 . but since the election i think we are up about 6000 or 7000 . .
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Old 02-02-2018, 07:49 PM
 
3,327 posts, read 3,951,442 times
Reputation: 2880
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kefir King View Post
Perhaps your hearing aids aren't working well?
NYC housing isn't in a bubble. Maybe the top end is ($10MM+) but as for the rest, there's simply a HUGE supply-demand imbalance. Unless you believe that this will be corrected anytime soon, there's no way that NYC housing prices will crash. During the 2008 financial crisis, most "average joe" NYC real estate took a 10-15% dip. That's it.

As for buying put options. How are you going to go about that when most major developers in NYC are privately owned. Unless you're an important client of an investment bank and they're willing to write custom CDS for you. I'm guessing that you're not?

You just talk out of your ass.
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Old 02-03-2018, 04:57 AM
 
92,513 posts, read 90,110,842 times
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we sold two central park co-ops in 2008 -2009 .

they went for 10% or so below the highs at that time .

what was tough was banks were reneging at closing and saying sorry ,we have no money to loan .

that happened 2x , once with each co-op . closing took about 3 or 4 months ... but prices wre not down much
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Old 02-03-2018, 10:07 AM
 
25,539 posts, read 21,068,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wawaweewa View Post
NYC housing isn't in a bubble. Maybe the top end is ($10MM+) but as for the rest, there's simply a HUGE supply-demand imbalance. Unless you believe that this will be corrected anytime soon, there's no way that NYC housing prices will crash. During the 2008 financial crisis, most "average joe" NYC real estate took a 10-15% dip. That's it.

As for buying put options. How are you going to go about that when most major developers in NYC are privately owned. Unless you're an important client of an investment bank and they're willing to write custom CDS for you. I'm guessing that you're not?

You just talk out of your ass.
Institutional investors took advantage of the 2008 crisis. Columbia expanded more aggressively, as did NYU. The 2008 crisis ultimately made a lot of foreclosed properties available in Williamsburg, LIC, Harlem etc available to developers.

So any price dip NYC might have in the next few years will just be exploited by those who have money. It's not becoming cheap as Kefir fantasizes, due to the supply-demand imbalance you mention.
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Old 02-03-2018, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Between the Bays
10,780 posts, read 10,030,631 times
Reputation: 5250
Quote:
Originally Posted by wawaweewa View Post
As for buying put options. How are you going to go about that when most major developers in NYC are privately owned.
Short the lenders and/or the debt they produce. Also building materials. Maybe even the Mexican peso.
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Old 02-03-2018, 08:38 PM
 
3,327 posts, read 3,951,442 times
Reputation: 2880
Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Dale View Post
Short the lenders and/or the debt they produce. Also building materials. Maybe even the Mexican peso.
He mentioned NYC specifically. How would you know what proportion of loans a particular lender has in NYC? Some lenders are known for being concentrated in particular regions but you'd never know the quality of a region specific loan book until it's too late.

As for building materials and the Mexican peso. For an NYC specific downturn?
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