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Bryant Park Grill is in prime tourist and commuter territory, and it's also really hard to get anything close to 1,000 outdoor dining seats where it is. It's likely the majority of restaurants in such areas are going to have a very difficult time surviving this year especially if there's not much change in regards to their rental expenses. There was once the foot traffic to support many, many restaurants, but that's certainly changed so there's going to be some pretty drastic "right-sizing" for the consumer base and a lot of that would probably entail places that either can negotiate a much lower rent or own their property outright.
With the vacancies, it's possible that, for many, closing up shop and terminating their leases in pursuit of restaurant spaces where the landlord has adjusted their prices to reflect the new lower level of foot traffic would also be enticing though of course there are some additional upfront costs to doing such. I also wouldn't be surprised if there were more than a few landlords who overleveraged themselves in order to acquire their properties with the expectation that the rental rates will simply keep increasing even as it became more and more apparent, even prior to the pandemic, that it's been hitting into territory where even large chains have difficulty justifying such. I've actually seen this happening with residential in terms of rent, with friends in NYC either not renewing or terminating their leases for new digs within NYC because the deals available now are just that much better to justify the hassle and cost of moving or even forfeiting parts of their security deposits.
I think that while the pull factor of NYC has arguably diminished for many, there’s still quite a bit of pull that the city has. Meanwhile, at least some of NYC population turnover can probably be attributed to the push factor of its increasingly high real estate costs which is oftentimes the single greatest expense for a person or businesses and has in recent years really crossed into a threshold where if one doesn’t already have an extremely sizable war chest already and/or in one of the fields that pay extremely well, then you essentially get pushed out. If the basic principles of economics work anything like the theories, then real estate costs will adjust to a point where things are tenable again.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 08-13-2020 at 11:00 AM..
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