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If people are honest with themselves they will admit we have no clue. However, the world emerged from WW1 the Spanish Flu in 1918 and had the Russian Civil War, Spanish Civil War, WW2 in short order and bounced back. We will recover but telling people that it's business as usual and buy stocks and make a killing soon might be magically thinking
Bounced back in short order? The world upheaval following the Spanish Flu and WW1 continued pretty much until the end of World War 2 . So it was 30 years of misery for most of the world including the Great Depression. After WW 2 we had one of the longest periods of relative stability in history but I am afraid that could be over.
Speaking of wars, ever thought about the fact that breakdowns of the world economic order are usually followed by major wars?
You are right that none of us knows what’s going to happen but a major world wide depression followed by a major war isn’t out of the question at all and is probably more likely than a sharp v shaped recovery everyone seems to think is in the card. In the middle range is a protracted ,painful rearrangement of things.....almost everything and don’t be surprised if when the dust settles the US is not on top.
[quote=bluedog2;57630486]Bounced back in short order? The world upheaval following the Spanish Flu and WW1 continued pretty much until the end of World War 2 . So it was 30 years of misery for most of the world including the Great Depression. After WW 2 we had one of the longest periods of relative stability in history but I am afraid that could be over.
Speaking of wars, ever thought about the fact that breakdowns of the world economic order are usually followed by major wars?
You are right that none of us knows what’s going to happen but a major world wide depression followed by a major war isn’t out of the question at all and is probably more likely than a sharp v shaped recovery everyone seems to think is in the card. In the middle range is a protracted ,painful rearrangement of things.....almost everything and don’t be surprised if when the dust settles the US is not on top.[/QU I think our nation is just as likely as any nation to remain on top but the top may not be as it was before. Americans will have to reevaluate everything we still have the best military. It's a brave new world. Or this dark conversation is all for nothing and the world goes back to normal. Oh, short order, that was my point it took like a generation. But people out there are telling people to buy stocks and you will soon make a killing as if it's business as usual.
In 3 days my wife’s employment went from full time, part time, laid off, part time now back to laid off. This is nuts. Her company should weather this fine as they are the #2 in her industry nationwide, but they will take a big hit depending on how long this goes on.
I really don’t think this can continue for months. It’s not sustainable. The economy at some point is more important than trying to stop ALL deaths. If we collapse the economy, especially with China working again, we’d have to go to war to correct this. Better off starting things up again knowing that some people will die because of it.
Sucks, but that’s reality.
The economic damage ( especially to NYC) is already going to be so severe I’m not sure even calling it off in a few more weeks will mean that much. And there is really almost no reason to believe that the parts of the country relatively unaffected so far aren’t just a few weeks behind NY. Would you be totally surprised if in 2 or 3 weeks more states aren’t shutdown rather than less?
And where in the name of god is all the money for these bailouts going to come from? They are going to have to devalue the dollar and hundreds of municipalities are going to go bankrupt.
How safe do you feel your NYC pension is now because I don’t think I feel sure about mine at all.
Bounced back in short order? The world upheaval following the Spanish Flu and WW1 continued pretty much until the end of World War 2 . So it was 30 years of misery for most of the world including the Great Depression. After WW 2 we had one of the longest periods of relative stability in history but I am afraid that could be over.
Speaking of wars, ever thought about the fact that breakdowns of the world economic order are usually followed by major wars?
You are right that none of us knows what’s going to happen but a major world wide depression followed by a major war isn’t out of the question at all and is probably more likely than a sharp v shaped recovery everyone seems to think is in the card. In the middle range is a protracted ,painful rearrangement of things.....almost everything and don’t be surprised if when the dust settles the US is not on top.
Or there could be other disease epidemics soon after this. Cheap airfare and certain other things rapidly facilitate the spread of disease.
No amount of macho war talk will change that. Public health and responses to newly emerging will have to be dealt with.
At least some forms of travel may have to be curtailed long term.
A lot more money will have to be spent on diseases. SARS and Ebola did not spread as far, but obviously they are out there. And so are diseases whose names we don’t know.
You can see how unhealthy states are having higher death rates now. LA and GA now 16 a piece, meanwhile Colorado has only 5. Those states are on reverse ends of the health spectrum. Numerous deaths in LA/GA in their 40s with underlying conditions, I'm assuming diabetes.
What can help the economy is if landlords, businesses, and companies change their profit expectations and work together with consumers to fix new price points. Does a landlord have to charge 2,000 for a one bedroom ? Does a cable channel have to charge 200 for a set of channels. Does a company have to cut employees to keep a particular profit margin ? At one time it was different and not as greedy.
These things will all sort out on their own when nobody has the money to pay the rents and prices.
It’s not “macho war talk”. It’s history, and precedent. If you don’t understand that collapsing major economies leads to war, I can only conclude that you’ve never opened a history book. Ever. Not even the first page.
The economic damage ( especially to NYC) is already going to be so severe I’m not sure even calling it off in a few more weeks will mean that much. And there is really almost no reason to believe that the parts of the country relatively unaffected so far aren’t just a few weeks behind NY. Would you be totally surprised if in 2 or 3 weeks more states aren’t shutdown rather than less?
And where in the name of god is all the money for these bailouts going to come from? They are going to have to devalue the dollar and hundreds of municipalities are going to go bankrupt.
How safe do you feel your NYC pension is now because I don’t think I feel sure about mine at all.
I always think about the tax cut a few years ago as a great folly. Had the US cut taxes by a lesser amount then what actually was cut and instead infrastructure and investments in other US spending we might have to borrow less and our country would be in a better place to deal with emergencies. Anyway... sometimes when you have money you budget it and save for rainy days.
It’s not “macho war talk”. It’s history, and precedent. If you don’t understand that collapsing major economies leads to war, I can only conclude that you’ve never opened a history book. Ever. Not even the first page.
My bachelors degree is in history.
And I recognize macho tough guy talk when I see it.
This is already a war, except it’s a war against a virus. The virus is doing pretty good so far. We’ve got to do better for when the next epidemic from whatever other new diseases come out.
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