Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
That assumes the shutdown is tight enough to be effective. There's some evidence that it isn't. As I said we'll know shortly. If it isn't dropping by 4/15, it's likely the peak is unpredictable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by antinimby
It is bound to slow down and even drop here in the city. With so much shutdown and isolating going on, the virus is going to have a hard time finding large numbers of new people to infect.
It's scientifically impossible to last that long. All of these outbreaks follow a bell curve, proven over and over. We are near the top of it and will drop down the other side.
Knowledge is power, lack of knowledge leads to fear and uncertainty.
We'll see if any of this is true, I'm skeptical. The point of everything the government has been doing is to stretch out an (hopefully flatten) the infection curve. I fear they may be half correct. They may stretch out the length of the curve, but not reduce the height. We'll know in about two weeks if what they're saying has any validity.
Yea, but your predictions aren't based on anything in particular--no modeling, no numbers, no experience. Surprisingly, somehow many of your previous posts on this topic don't seem to hold up very well.
If anyone's interested in the history and relatively current state of research, the wikipedia page has been extremely up-to-date as there are a number of editors in the field and from different languages translating and updating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_drug_development
Also, if any of you have gaming PCs or workstations with decent GPUs that are sitting idle sometimes, consider doing folding@home which is doing protein folding simulations with COVID-19 in order to help understand and potentially find ways to counteract it: https://foldingathome.org/
They always have a choice. Get a bike. Walk. Whatever. They’re making a choice to get on the subway regardless of how strongly it appears to be their ONLY choice.
They always have a choice. Get a bike. Walk. Whatever. They’re making a choice to get on the subway regardless of how strongly it appears to be their ONLY choice.
It's a pretty good point you're making in that a lot of people probably aren't even considering biking or long walks as options when they very well could do that. Perhaps there should be a program that tries to hand out donated bikes to any essential workers who still need to commute to their jobs. Edit: found one for the NYC area: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...-Pgng/viewform
If anyone knows of someone else who is an essential worker with a commute that's just too long for walking, then point them to that ^ However, some of the biking distances would be extremely long given how a lot of people have essential jobs in Manhattan, but lives far out. Plus, NYC's biking infrastructure still needs some work.
I'd also say that some people are physically unable to bike, but really, then maybe they should be staying at home though perhaps they're traveling for those medical conditions.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 04-04-2020 at 02:27 PM..
They always have a choice. Get a bike. Walk. Whatever. They’re making a choice to get on the subway regardless of how strongly it appears to be their ONLY choice.
It's not good to limit the choices of hospital workers at this point, or make it appear to them that the costs outweigh the benefits.
That assumes the shutdown is tight enough to be effective. There's some evidence that it isn't. As I said we'll know shortly. If it isn't dropping by 4/15, it's likely the peak is unpredictable.
The model does not assume a complete 100% airtight shutdown. There is obviously going to be some additional and ongoing infections but the rapidly rising numbers that we are seeing cannot be sustained when there is even a moderately tight shutdown, which is what we have.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
