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meh--- once this clears up my guess is business as usual ....what markets see and what main street sees are two very different things . location more than anything will determine real estate outcomes .
i would never attempt to call this outcome ... it can be all over the map . no different than 2008 was ... at its worst we sold our 2 manhattan co-ops at 10% below the all time high ... things were worse in kew gardens where we had another one .
New York has gone through the '87, 9/11 and the 2008 market collapses. Like those times, short term, it will take a hit. But, as always, don't be surprised to see a long-term bounce back! And that long-term bounce back might be shorter than people think! New York, as opposed to the rest of the country, is a different animal, when it comes to markets!
New York has gone through the '87, 9/11 and the 2008 market collapses. Like those times, short term, it will take a hit. But, as always, don't be surprised to see a long-term bounce back! And that long-term bounce back might be shorter than people think! New York, as opposed to the rest of the country, is a different animal, when it comes to markets!
people think they can call this stuff all the time ...
no one can ... markets not only are very forward looking and tend to already discount what we all see , but events not even on the radar yet tend to alter the outcomes we all think are eminent.
what is very eye opening is in the now famous book a random walk down wall street .
markets and growth and corporate profits have never been linked .
as much as we think higher profits lead to higher stock prices which lead to higher real estate prices BECAUSE the economy is doing well , it really does not work like that .
markets are based on greed ,fear and perception not the here and now .
gains and corporate profits don't flow together more often than not.
in the book a random walk down wall street 548 NYSE issues were tracked and analyzed over 5 year periods and the results were the performance had no relationship between the technical and fundamental signals and the actual stock performance ..
ned davis research took another look at the relationship and going as far back as 1927 they found when profits rose more than:
20% the s&p returned a mere 1.3% in gains
10 to 20% saw 5.8% in gains
(-10% to + 10% in profits saw a 9.3% jump in gains
(-10%) to (-25%) drop in profits saw 28.6% gains
(-25%) and lower saw a -28% drop in share price.
so just because the economy looks crappy to our eyes , may not be the way markets of any type see it panning out .
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-06-2020 at 04:33 AM..
meh--- once this clears up my guess is business as usual ....what markets see and what main street sees are two very different things . location more than anything will determine real estate outcomes .
i would never attempt to call this outcome ... it can be all over the map . no different than 2008 was ... at its worst we sold our 2 manhattan co-ops at 10% below the all time high ... things were worse in kew gardens where we had another one .
2008 did not see people due or get out under martial law/house arrest.
It really feels how comfortable people feel in dealing with future Coronavirus outbreaks and potentially other new disease out grams, if the city is able to set up proper responses, etc. de Blasio really screwed up in not shutting things down earlier.
New York has gone through the '87, 9/11 and the 2008 market collapses. Like those times, short term, it will take a hit. But, as always, don't be surprised to see a long-term bounce back! And that long-term bounce back might be shorter than people think! New York, as opposed to the rest of the country, is a different animal, when it comes to markets!
Every ten years or so there’s a market collapse, yes.
Of course if corporations bail out of the city, that is a gane change and that’s why the writer thinks this epidemic is a game changer. Of course Bloomberg employees likely have far greater access to what CEOs are thinking. Remote work options mean they don’t need NYC as much.
If companies bail, employees bail, nyc salaries bail, tax money bails. The economic destruction after corona will last a couple of years. St.Louis fed predicting 34% unemployment. Watch out for subprime car loans to fail. Housing and credit are dominos to follow. I've said it before and I'll say it again this is our great depression. Throw in a war with Venezuela into the mix as the cherry on top.
meh--- once this clears up my guess is business as usual .... .
That's what I think. The idea that this virus has instilled a permanent fear in residents is nonsensical when you look a the people still out there today.
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