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Old 05-05-2020, 11:43 PM
 
Location: Honolulu/DMV Area/NYC
30,612 posts, read 18,192,641 times
Reputation: 34463

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I'd take a good, long look at who is leaving and where they are going to. If poorer renters are leaving for cheaper suburbs and states--and taking the problems of poverty to violent crime with them--stay clear away from those areas. I feel bad for those people who fled the City for safer neighboring suburbs 25-30 years ago to escape the crime, only to have the same kind they hoped to avoid slowly make their way out there as property values and rents in the city became unconscionably high.

Note, my parents and family do not plan to leave the City, despite the ongoing pandemic. They live in Prospect Heights by the Barclays Center and own their home, which could be sold for a very nice profit today.
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Old 05-05-2020, 11:46 PM
 
Location: Honolulu/DMV Area/NYC
30,612 posts, read 18,192,641 times
Reputation: 34463
Quote:
Originally Posted by Checkmarkblue View Post
I predicted such scenario. My thing is this. For the Millennial generation. Covid-19 outbreak is a nail in the coffin for NYC and Millennials. Employers will have not to push jobs in suburban office parks just tp keep thier talented millennial work force. With Covid-19 I see real estate in NYC declining. What NYC needs to do is now reimagine itself for Gen Z in the next few years ahead as Gen Z population begins to transition from college to work force life.
I don't see that happening, at least not in any significant way. Many Millennial types will still want to live and work in the heart of the city. Now, those who have families may want out, but even then that's not a given. Who knows, I could be wrong, though.
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Old 05-06-2020, 10:40 AM
 
15,822 posts, read 14,463,105 times
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Most suburbs don't have housing affordable to lower income renters. Most have actively fought any attempt to build such. Suburban towns that have it are already slummy. And if anything until the recent pandemic, gentrification has been squeezing the poor out of anything affordable and convenient to NYC, as those properties get bought up by investors and renovated upscale.

If anything, unless they get subsidized or otherwise below market rate housing, the poor are going to be increasingly squeezed out of the NY metro area entirely

Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident View Post
I'd take a good, long look at who is leaving and where they are going to. If poorer renters are leaving for cheaper suburbs and states--and taking the problems of poverty to violent crime with them--stay clear away from those areas. I feel bad for those people who fled the City for safer neighboring suburbs 25-30 years ago to escape the crime, only to have the same kind they hoped to avoid slowly make their way out there as property values and rents in the city became unconscionably high.

Note, my parents and family do not plan to leave the City, despite the ongoing pandemic. They live in Prospect Heights by the Barclays Center and own their home, which could be sold for a very nice profit today.

Last edited by BBMW; 05-06-2020 at 10:55 AM..
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Old 05-06-2020, 11:02 AM
 
3,743 posts, read 1,440,675 times
Reputation: 1895
Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident View Post
I don't see that happening, at least not in any significant way. Many Millennial types will still want to live and work in the heart of the city. Now, those who have families may want out, but even then that's not a given. Who knows, I could be wrong, though.
Covid 19 outbreak will be the nail in the coffin for millinnials just how 9/11 was a nail in the coffin for Gen x 20 years ago. I remember Genx moving out of NYC after the attacks of 9/11.
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Old 05-06-2020, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Manhattan, NYC
1,274 posts, read 978,310 times
Reputation: 1250
Quote:
Originally Posted by reppin_the_847 View Post
As wonderful as the city is, you can't deny that even a lot of wealthy folks fled the city (at least temporarily) to areas where they may have 2nd homes such as the Hamptons, Hudson Valley, Nantucket (MA), Jersey Shore NJ, etc.

If now was truly a wonderful time to stay in NYC, why didn't they decide to stick it out in Manhattan?
It's not an economic crisis per se, it's a health issue. There is a virus going on so I think it plays into people's mind.

I don't get out often and unlike others I don't have the feeling my place is small in Manhattan, and furthermore, the places we would go usually are abroad (Paris, Jeju island), so right now, we stayed.

But I can understand people willing to maybe to "safer" areas and potentially worry less about a virus.
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Old 05-06-2020, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Queens, NY
4,525 posts, read 3,403,693 times
Reputation: 6030
Quote:
Originally Posted by Checkmarkblue View Post
Covid 19 outbreak will be the nail in the coffin for millinnials just how 9/11 was a nail in the coffin for Gen x 20 years ago. I remember Genx moving out of NYC after the attacks of 9/11.
Nah, I'm a millennial that still wants to work and live in NYC.
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Old 05-06-2020, 11:17 AM
 
Location: On a Long Island in NY
7,800 posts, read 10,102,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Checkmarkblue View Post
I predicted such scenario. My thing is this. For the Millennial generation. Covid-19 outbreak is a nail in the coffin for NYC and Millennials. Employers will have not to push jobs in suburban office parks just tp keep thier talented millennial work force. With Covid-19 I see real estate in NYC declining. What NYC needs to do is now reimagine itself for Gen Z in the next few years ahead as Gen Z population begins to transition from college to work force life.
About a year ago Newsday had this whole big study which determined that no matter what we do we will lose about 30% of a generation. People will always go away to college and settle down in that area, they will join the military, there's always those that will want to get away from their hometown, etc. Nonetheless (and very surprisingly) they estimated that Long Island has been able to retain about 60% of it's Millennial population which is what basically fits in with my personal circle of friends.

The problem? The study called for more (and cheaper) apartments, more density, and better transit options .... all of which has now been rendered moot by COVID-19. People will now want traditional suburbia now, we'll have to go back to the drawing board. How do we deliver suburbia without houses that cost $400,000 and have $10,000 a year property tax bills (the Suffolk County average)? We've got maybe 5 years before the bulk of Generation Z enters adulthood to come up with solutions. The biggest factor behind the high property taxes are the public schools and I think one option to fix that is consolidation but those proposals have been hugely controversial out here.
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Old 05-06-2020, 11:50 AM
 
1,772 posts, read 3,234,362 times
Reputation: 1621
Quote:
Originally Posted by WIHS2006 View Post
The biggest factor behind the high property taxes are the public schools and I think one option to fix that is consolidation but those proposals have been hugely controversial out here.
reason for this - Long Islanders believe the value of their home is directly proportional to the reputation of their school district.
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Old 05-06-2020, 12:02 PM
 
15,822 posts, read 14,463,105 times
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A lot of current/previous urban dwellers, especially millennials will end up hating suburbia, and will want to move back to urban environments as soon as the pandemic passes. They've been indoctrinated since birth by the education-welfare complex to think that everything that suburbia represents (sprawl, autocentrism, lack of diversity, etc.) is morally abhorrent. That indoctrination won't be erased simple because some of them, and probably only a minority of them at that, were chased out of the city by the virus.

The ones that might not come back are the parents with children. They may discover what generations of parents have known. Space and good public schools work better for families with children than the cramped confines and bad schools of the cities. Of course, as a group, the Millennial generation has been delaying or just skipping having kid.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WIHS2006 View Post
About a year ago Newsday had this whole big study which determined that no matter what we do we will lose about 30% of a generation. People will always go away to college and settle down in that area, they will join the military, there's always those that will want to get away from their hometown, etc. Nonetheless (and very surprisingly) they estimated that Long Island has been able to retain about 60% of it's Millennial population which is what basically fits in with my personal circle of friends.

The problem? The study called for more (and cheaper) apartments, more density, and better transit options .... all of which has now been rendered moot by COVID-19. People will now want traditional suburbia now, we'll have to go back to the drawing board. How do we deliver suburbia without houses that cost $400,000 and have $10,000 a year property tax bills (the Suffolk County average)? We've got maybe 5 years before the bulk of Generation Z enters adulthood to come up with solutions. The biggest factor behind the high property taxes are the public schools and I think one option to fix that is consolidation but those proposals have been hugely controversial out here.
I grew up on LI. The current generation of suburban dwells don't want to do what you're talking about.

There's always been a convection between the city and suburbs. Young college graduation who grew up in the 'burbs go to work in the city and build careers. After screwing around for a while, they find someone to marry and start having kids. They discover trying to raise kids in the city is problematic and expensive, and move out the 'burbs for space and better schools. Their kids grow up and go to college, starting the process over again. The empty nesters may also decide that they don't need the big house in the 'burbs. If they're still working, they may downsize into the city. If they've hit retirement, and don't need access to the city, and also decide they don't want Northeastern cold winter, may move to a cheaper, warmer more retirement friendly location (think Florida or similar.)

It's pretty much been this way since the end of WWII.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WIHS2006 View Post
About a year ago Newsday had this whole big study which determined that no matter what we do we will lose about 30% of a generation. People will always go away to college and settle down in that area, they will join the military, there's always those that will want to get away from their hometown, etc. Nonetheless (and very surprisingly) they estimated that Long Island has been able to retain about 60% of it's Millennial population which is what basically fits in with my personal circle of friends.

The problem? The study called for more (and cheaper) apartments, more density, and better transit options .... all of which has now been rendered moot by COVID-19. People will now want traditional suburbia now, we'll have to go back to the drawing board. How do we deliver suburbia without houses that cost $400,000 and have $10,000 a year property tax bills (the Suffolk County average)? We've got maybe 5 years before the bulk of Generation Z enters adulthood to come up with solutions. The biggest factor behind the high property taxes are the public schools and I think one option to fix that is consolidation but those proposals have been hugely controversial out here.
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Old 05-06-2020, 12:25 PM
 
7,934 posts, read 8,587,137 times
Reputation: 5889
In reality people have been leaving New York for quite some time now and it easily pre-dates the Covid-19(84) scamdemic.

https://nypost.com/2019/04/20/the-re...eing-the-city/

First it happens very slowly and nobody notices, then not-so-slowly when something like this past few months happens. I would say "Peak NYC" happened somewhere around the early-mid 2010's culminating in a mob of post-collegiate millennials descending on the place in droves seeking the urbane lifestyle. But that has worn off some and sentiment has shifted perceptibly.
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