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Old 05-07-2020, 12:33 AM
 
4,757 posts, read 3,365,054 times
Reputation: 3715

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynJo View Post
I could care less about white upper class yuppies and hipsters leaving in droves and going back to the suburbs if it means minorities and immigrants (white immigrants included before someone calls me racist) can take over the city again and make it turn back to its original glory. Trust and believe many immigrants and minorities are excited about this exodus, especially if its going to bring real estate cost down (Hopefully).

People have been saying that NYC is DONE for the past 50 years now. At this point NYC BEING DONE should be the name of a new Broadway Show in Times Square. My theory is that NYC is always evolving and there will always be a crowd of people who do not like the change and will want out. The same people who claim NYC is done today are the same people who talk highly of the 1970's when NYC lost almost 1 million people between 1970 and 1980.

Once this virus is done and over with people are going to flood the city again and it will all be forgotten and we will all look back and laugh at it. This is not the first or the worst pandemic that has happened in America.
This!
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Old 05-07-2020, 06:50 AM
 
Location: In a rural area
910 posts, read 753,169 times
Reputation: 1432
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynJo View Post
I could care less about white upper class yuppies and hipsters leaving in droves and going back to the suburbs if it means minorities and immigrants (white immigrants included before someone calls me racist) can take over the city again and make it turn back to its original glory. Trust and believe many immigrants and minorities are excited about this exodus, especially if its going to bring real estate cost down (Hopefully).

People have been saying that NYC is DONE for the past 50 years now. At this point NYC BEING DONE should be the name of a new Broadway Show in Times Square. My theory is that NYC is always evolving and there will always be a crowd of people who do not like the change and will want out. The same people who claim NYC is done today are the same people who talk highly of the 1970's when NYC lost almost 1 million people between 1970 and 1980.

Once this virus is done and over with people are going to flood the city again and it will all be forgotten and we will all look back and laugh at it. This is not the first or the worst pandemic that has happened in America.
Ha ha ha. Yeah, right. I can't believe how deluded some of you are. Again, why would anyone in their right mind with any sense of reality think that somehow rents would go down so drastically as to trigger this? Most racial minorities in NYC will still not be able to buy their own homes. Fact. Real Estate would have to go down so drastically as to make it as cheap as some of the states where minority home ownership is higher...so basically maybe a place like Atlanta. Nope, won't happen here.

As for people saying NYC is "done", it's simply a question of logistics and what COVID19 entails. It goes against the very fabric of what makes NYC be, well, NYC. NYC is not "evolving", NYC is devolving into something not attractive for anyone. In the past, it always had a certain appeal depending on your profile, but now? What will be there to like about a city with empty offices and no where to go? Minorities will also be the hardest hit by job losses. There's only so many waiter jobs going around and other unskilled type of jobs. If you add the very real shrinking tax base that will inevitable foster severe budget cuts, then those who don't even work for a living because they live off benefits are in for very, very hard times. NY already approved a brutal austerity budget.

You are free to like or love NYC, but spare us the rosy outlook (unless you are very very rich, which I doubt).
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Old 05-07-2020, 07:43 AM
 
Location: Brooklyn the best borough in NYC!
3,559 posts, read 2,398,714 times
Reputation: 2813
Quote:
Originally Posted by canovas View Post
Ha ha ha. Yeah, right. I can't believe how deluded some of you are. Again, why would anyone in their right mind with any sense of reality think that somehow rents would go down so drastically as to trigger this? Most racial minorities in NYC will still not be able to buy their own homes. Fact. Real Estate would have to go down so drastically as to make it as cheap as some of the states where minority home ownership is higher...so basically maybe a place like Atlanta. Nope, won't happen here.

As for people saying NYC is "done", it's simply a question of logistics and what COVID19 entails. It goes against the very fabric of what makes NYC be, well, NYC. NYC is not "evolving", NYC is devolving into something not attractive for anyone. In the past, it always had a certain appeal depending on your profile, but now? What will be there to like about a city with empty offices and no where to go? Minorities will also be the hardest hit by job losses. There's only so many waiter jobs going around and other unskilled type of jobs. If you add the very real shrinking tax base that will inevitable foster severe budget cuts, then those who don't even work for a living because they live off benefits are in for very, very hard times. NY already approved a brutal austerity budget.

You are free to like or love NYC, but spare us the rosy outlook (unless you are very very rich, which I doubt).

Your entire post is an assumption/prediction/opinion so what makes you less delusional than people who do not agree with you? You have no solid proof of anything you are saying unless you have a time machine and went to the year 2030 and came back to tell us this information.

I'm just going off the history of NYC. It is indeed a fact that this is not the first epidemic that hit NYC or major cities across America and yet NYC and major cities overcame them just fine. Its also a fact that this is not the first time that NYC was predicted to be DONE and again it overcame that and here we are today.

You are free to hate and leave NYC in droves all you want but please spare us the rosy outlook that is more related to your personal beliefs.

My theory is pretty much simple. Once this virus is over society will be right back to normal 2-3 years after the fact and we will all look back and laugh at this and share articles of the next major corporation making its move into the BIG APPLE
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Old 05-07-2020, 09:01 AM
 
Location: New Jersey!!!!
19,041 posts, read 13,955,559 times
Reputation: 21509
As much as I want to leave and hate this city to my core, along with agreeing that this virus has proved that ultra-dense living coupled with terrible health care options (sorry guys, NYC is NOT the best place to get sick like some parrot constantly) have exposed this place for what it is, even I will admit that NYC will likely taken very little of a long-term hit once this is over.

Millenials and below are all in for small living and small families. This places gives them that. Hopefully one wants my house soon!
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Old 05-07-2020, 09:19 AM
 
Location: In a rural area
910 posts, read 753,169 times
Reputation: 1432
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynJo View Post
Your entire post is an assumption/prediction/opinion so what makes you less delusional than people who do not agree with you? You have no solid proof of anything you are saying unless you have a time machine and went to the year 2030 and came back to tell us this information.

I'm just going off the history of NYC. It is indeed a fact that this is not the first epidemic that hit NYC or major cities across America and yet NYC and major cities overcame them just fine. Its also a fact that this is not the first time that NYC was predicted to be DONE and again it overcame that and here we are today.

You are free to hate and leave NYC in droves all you want but please spare us the rosy outlook that is more related to your personal beliefs.

My theory is pretty much simple. Once this virus is over society will be right back to normal 2-3 years after the fact and we will all look back and laugh at this and share articles of the next major corporation making its move into the BIG APPLE
I never said NYC was "done". I said that most of the new people who had been coming into NYC for the past decades came for a series of attractions that will NOT be available for a very long time. You would have to be very idiotic to pay a premium for a place that will be, for a very very long time (no, I cannot predict specific years but look at all the info we have about COVID as of today) just like their suburbs or small towns where they came from. Why would anybody make all the sacrifices that living in NYC entails if they will not enjoy the very reasons they moved here in the first place? So unless a vaccine is developed very soon or something else we do not know happens, I have to go by the info we have as of today's date.

Of course this is not the first time an epidemic hits NYC. So what? It is the first time where a combination of media hysteria along with changes in people's preferences and attitudes, have provoked a massive amount of people leaving. Nobody in their right mind would venture to say what NYC will look like or be in 50 or 100 years, but for the next LONG while? Yes, we can make certain predictions which are already happening.

You yourself say 2 to 3 years (yes, that at a minimum). In the meantime, not everyone has the luxury or the LOVE of NYC to wait those 2 or 3 years without a job. See where I'm going with this? You also do not know if people will be willing to risk coming back and then suffer a new outbreak of something in the future. People's expectations change and fads come and go. People who do not realize that NYC was already on the decline are living under a rock or are very comfortably well off.

I hope, for everyone's sake, that I am dead wrong about everything I've said. All I can say is based on what I know now, what we see now, things are horrific for the immediate future of NYC. I, for one, will not stay long enough to live it.
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Old 05-07-2020, 09:31 AM
 
7,934 posts, read 8,590,031 times
Reputation: 5889
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBMW View Post
People just started getting priced out.
That is undoubtedly part of it but I suspect there are many moving parts.

Just for fun I looked at the population trends of other major NE cities. Baltimore (a city with some serious challenges) is the only other one that has been shedding population steadily...since 2014 actually. DC, Boston, and even Philadelphia are still showing positive population trends. Not explosive obviously, but steady enough. Chicago is another notable one where population growth has turned steadily negative for I think it was 4-5 years now at least. One I noticed still growing fast? Seattle.

NYC lost somewhere around 800,000 people during the 70's and it was not a bright spot in the city's history as anyone who lived it will tell you. The problem is the people who leave tend to be the ones who have the means to do so and are probably the more productive taxpayers. The people who are knee-deep in government subsidies, they ain't going anywhere. No incentive to do so.
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Old 05-07-2020, 09:39 AM
 
7,934 posts, read 8,590,031 times
Reputation: 5889
Quote:
Originally Posted by canovas View Post
I never said NYC was "done". I said that most of the new people who had been coming into NYC for the past decades came for a series of attractions that will NOT be available for a very long time. You would have to be very idiotic to pay a premium for a place that will be, for a very very long time (no, I cannot predict specific years but look at all the info we have about COVID as of today) just like their suburbs or small towns where they came from. Why would anybody make all the sacrifices that living in NYC entails if they will not enjoy the very reasons they moved here in the first place? So unless a vaccine is developed very soon or something else we do not know happens, I have to go by the info we have as of today's date.

Of course this is not the first time an epidemic hits NYC. So what? It is the first time where a combination of media hysteria along with changes in people's preferences and attitudes, have provoked a massive amount of people leaving. Nobody in their right mind would venture to say what NYC will look like or be in 50 or 100 years, but for the next LONG while? Yes, we can make certain predictions which are already happening.

You yourself say 2 to 3 years (yes, that at a minimum). In the meantime, not everyone has the luxury or the LOVE of NYC to wait those 2 or 3 years without a job. See where I'm going with this? You also do not know if people will be willing to risk coming back and then suffer a new outbreak of something in the future. People's expectations change and fads come and go. People who do not realize that NYC was already on the decline are living under a rock or are very comfortably well off.

I hope, for everyone's sake, that I am dead wrong about everything I've said. All I can say is based on what I know now, what we see now, things are horrific for the immediate future of NYC. I, for one, will not stay long enough to live it.
No I think you are pretty close to the mark. NYC will likely slump hard at least for the next 2-3 years and then the rebound will be nothing explosive. Past two decades have been very good to the place and people get lulled into believing that must be the way it will always be from now on. IMO the fundamentals are bad. Taxes too high, too many rules and regulations, traffic sucks, etc. As I said before unless you are very wealthy or part of the entrenched welfare class there is not a very strong business case to put up with such an environment long term. Way too predatory to the working man.
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Old 05-07-2020, 10:01 AM
 
Location: In a rural area
910 posts, read 753,169 times
Reputation: 1432
Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanAdventurer View Post
No I think you are pretty close to the mark. NYC will likely slump hard at least for the next 2-3 years and then the rebound will be nothing explosive. Past two decades have been very good to the place and people get lulled into believing that must be the way it will always be from now on. IMO the fundamentals are bad. Taxes too high, too many rules and regulations, traffic sucks, etc. As I said before unless you are very wealthy or part of the entrenched welfare class there is not a very strong business case to put up with such an environment long term. Way too predatory to the working man.
Absolutely agree. When you take into consideration everything overall, it is a strong motivating factor to leave. I am already in that process (just waiting for end of May/June) and then I am moving to a place that is much more peaceful and cheaper, cleaner. A lot of people have also neglected to mention on this thread that if remote working becomes a more entrenched option, then even less of a reason to come here. Nobody would really want to put up with the commute surrounded by many sketchy/questionable type people in a packed train, plus the expensive midtown lunches and all the other expenses that NYC social life entails. The people clinging to the most hope are obviously home owners who want their real estate to continue being sky high even though they shot themselves in the foot with so much speculation. Taxes, taxes, taxes and with nothing to show for it. No, thanks. I already took my LLC out of NY state, since I got so fed up with paying taxes in exchange for nothing. They literally penalize you if you work more. It is absolutely insane AND on top of this, before COVID19, the city was becoming pretty unsafe. Im definitely not the paranoid type, but I never ever remember seeing the subways in such a bad state during the Giuliani/Bloomberg admins, let alone attacked by a homeless person as recently happened to me for no reason. I was just sitting there minding my own business and a random homeless black guy who was mentally deranged just hit me hard on the head. Luckily he was so deranged that the blow didn't really "hurt" me. Those type of scenes were becoming more and more a thing recently, what with all the softening of bail procedures and a City Council hellbent on propaganda and other BS. I'm sure you can tell by now how much I LOOOOVEEEE being here!
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Old 05-07-2020, 10:08 AM
 
15,841 posts, read 14,472,390 times
Reputation: 11916
I stayed. I had an empty house in the Pocanos available to me (among other bug out locations.) A big part of my reasoning is that, since I live ont he UES of Manhattan, I have some of the best hospitals in the world, and a LOT of hospital capacity, withing walking distance, with my PCP at one of them. If I didn't come down with Covid-19 (or anything else) while bugged out in the middle of nowhere, what kind of health care would I get? And if they have an outbreak out there, what hospital capacity they have it going to be exhausted in a day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Airborneguy View Post
As much as I want to leave and hate this city to my core, along with agreeing that this virus has proved that ultra-dense living coupled with terrible health care options (sorry guys, NYC is NOT the best place to get sick like some parrot constantly) have exposed this place for what it is, even I will admit that NYC will likely taken very little of a long-term hit once this is over.

Millenials and below are all in for small living and small families. This places gives them that. Hopefully one wants my house soon!
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Old 05-07-2020, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
8,936 posts, read 4,765,592 times
Reputation: 5970
Quote:
Originally Posted by DreamerD View Post
This!
Yeah. Oh, NYC will never survive this... Oh, NYC will never recover... Oh, NYC is done, done, done.
Oh, I have to get the he&& outta here.... Oh, I'm leaving now...
Yeah, yeah, yeah....

If you find happiness elsewhere, more power to you. Not being sarcastic.

We shall see. The grass always looks greener on the other side.
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