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There is a wealth of data and studies on this including in places that have no real ties to the US political system at all. It is difficult for me to believe that Giuliani was mayor of virtually the entire developed Western World much of which saw their crime rates start dropping before Giuliani became mayor or CompStat was put in place and police departments in that time period were unlikely to have had extensive knowledge-sharing of policy and enforcement in that time period let alone some massive collaborative push on these policies from before Giuliani was even running for mayor. That notion just seems really improbable to me. It’s not to say that Giuliani’s policy had no effect, but it’s pretty evident that anything specific to that administration was almost certainly not the dominant factor.
There is a wealth of data and studies on this including in places that have no real ties to the US political system at all. It is difficult for me to believe that Giuliani was mayor of virtually the entire developed Western World much of which saw their crime rates start dropping before Giuliani became mayor or CompStat was put in place and police departments in that time period were unlikely to have had extensive knowledge-sharing of policy and enforcement in that time period let alone some massive collaborative push on these policies from before Giuliani was even running for mayor. That notion just seems really improbable to me. It’s not to say that Giuliani’s policy had no effect, but it’s pretty evident that anything specific to that administration was almost certainly not the dominant factor.
On a macro basis the only correlating factor to national crime patterns that has been proven is the elimination or reduction of environmental lead, mostly from unleaded gasoline during formative years where lead particles can damage the development of key brain functions including impulse control
I like how many liberals I meet in public says all these problems are because of the failures of the government then proceeds to vote for the same people again and again.
how do you know that's who they're voting for? do they tell you?
that makes no sense they would vote in ineffective govt', unless they purely vote along party lines, which still makes no sense.
say what? we were at historic crime lows until just a few months ago
Excerpt: we were at historic crime lows until just a few months ago
Resonse: May I opine?
In part....only by numbers and never by percentages. Giuliani dropped crime by more than 45% that is a feat
unbeatable to date. Bloomberg kept it fairly status quo for 12 years after Giuliani left office and deBlasio had trouble
keeping in check as it slowly rose to over 3% until the virus struck. Throw in what I consider poor tactic control of rioting and extreme police restrictions and law putting criminals back on the street ( thank you Mr.Mayor ) and the hinges fell off the doors of crime control. It is June 2020 and you can't even have a conversation without getting smacked down.
In what way will the police be able to stop murders that are about to happen, when they are nowhere to be found? The police are not doing their jobs at all... defunding is one thing..... since we can't change their behavior, what do you propose? Blaming DiBlasio is the easiest thing, but the police dept is out of control. NYC is going back to the 70s and 80s, only now there is no CBGB or Studio 54...
I think Lockdown is the reason for the spike in violent crime
i think anarchy is the reason. criminals knowing that they can get away with crime without repercussion has to be a big factor.
On a macro basis the only correlating factor to national crime patterns that has been proven is the elimination or reduction of environmental lead, mostly from unleaded gasoline during formative years where lead particles can damage the development of key brain functions including impulse control
Yes, that’s the lead crime hypothesis and it holds fairly well across different countries and even in different situations like natural experiments where similar cities installed leaded pipes or other pipes due to pricing differences from proximity to lead smelters. There’s even a bit of interesting tidbits today that don’t have a lot of direct data, but potentially interesting implications with the list of countries that have not phased out leaded gasoline being such delights as Afghanistan, Algeria, Myanmar, North Korea, and Yemen. The other potentially dominant factor suggested for that time period is the legalization of abortion. Both of these hypotheses work on the idea that they affect young men which are generally the populace no matter which country the most likely to commit violent crime. The former is about diminished intelligence and lack of ability to empathize and difficulty in controlling impulses due to childhood exposure. The latter is simply not having that large of a cohort of young men in the first place.
There’s another interesting bit which is that Chicago is among the US cities with the largest abundance of leaded pipes and once they start having issues, they start precipitating (literally) quite quickly which might play some role in why Chicago had its massive crime drop along with other US (and developed cities of the Western World), but then had another spike.
Now does this mean that these are the only factors or that a mayoral administration shouldn’t be actively working on understanding the factors behind and reducing crime? No, of course not, but it’s also pretty evident that actions specific to Giuliani’s administration were not the dominant factor in reducing crime. Of course, this doesn’t mean he didn’t do good things. He was a wonderful publicist and booster, not just for himself but the city as well. Even if he wasn’t truly responsible for the drop in crime and was likely not cognizant of that, he did do an incredible job of publicizing to the rest of the public that NYC crime was going down and attracting massive outside investment. I think if some other mayor had been there to take credit for the drop in NYC crime, there’s still a good chance they wouldn’t have trumpeted it nearly as much and the Times Square we have today could have been radically different.
Of course, that’s kind of hard for people to grasp especially people who lived through the bad years through to now because that’s what they kept on hearing the whole time. It makes sense that they would continue to believe Giuliani was really what made the difference despite evidence otherwise. That’s amply evident from the posts in this forum. However, you’d hope that at least people actually crafting policy in the future would be cognizant of this because it’s important to understand when trying to find ways to reduce crime.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 06-18-2020 at 04:30 PM..
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