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Immigrated to NYC when I was three (late 1980s). Basically "born" and raised. I love this city and it's sad seeing it on the decline for the first time in my life. Our leaders are full blown clowns and it's sad they're ruining lives for no good reason at all
However, my wife and I are in the market for an apartment. Everytime I hear about a shooting, my next thought is, "prices just edged a bit lower".
I'm literally having brokers respond 5 minutes after inquiring about a listing and constantly following up. Prices already down ~10% listings innth $500-700k range in "premium" neighborhoods. That's unheard of. At the height of the financial crisis in 2008, they were down around 10%.
Never thought I'd say this but certain neighborhoods ( those who were in the process of gentrifying) are overbuilt with condos. Who's buying a 600aq ft $600K condo in Bed Study or Bushwick?
I think it'll get worse before it gets better. People still aren't panicking yet. I think they will be early next year when there's still no vaccine , flu cases will be lumped in with COVID, and Manhattan is still devoid of workers and tourists.
I think it'll get worse before it gets better. People still aren't panicking yet. I think they will be early next year when there's still no vaccine , flu cases will be lumped in with COVID, and Manhattan is still devoid of workers and tourists.
I see a lot of people wearing masks. This time with the flu many people will be wearing masks and that is a big difference form last year. They will take more flu shots and there is less population density so there will be potentially significantly less flu.
One scientists had a recent article suggesting that NY may have already hit herd immunity on COVID but it is uncertain.
Many commercial space rents remain high and landlords are willing to wait long stretches, years even without even collecting rent. There will be a lot of retail business closures
but I think there is a lot of complexity and a mixed bag of unpredictable consequences.
Also Trump has the gas pedal on the vaccine aiming for late October early November.
However even if that does happen it will take a long time for it to be distributed and many of the people who are anti-mask now may be a part of the anti-vax crowd.
Then there could be a political problem if schools say their kid can't go to school without the vaccine
-- but I'm not sure when the timing of that might be because kids will already be in school at that point.
Keep an eye on the schools through October. Since kids over 10 can spread COVID as much as adults if they don't cause a significant upsurge that may lead to more of a population return
- but it could go the other way also
For now it will be a combination of online classes and outdoor but that may evolve to indoor as the weather gets cold
If you think you have a very secure job in NY it could be worth the gamble to get one of those lowered leases or wait one more month to see if there are further reductions. Note the Trump eviction moratorium applies through December 31, 2020. It will remain to be seen if what happens after that, theoretically after that people will be also responsible for back rent under the moratorium. Obviously they won't be able to pay it. But evictions served don't happen instantly. You may get a cheap rent but by the time you move in a big homeless crisis in the neighborhood. New York could start to bounce back in 2022, if not 2030. It's very hard to predict. It all depends what your role is
I see a lot of people wearing masks. This time with the flu many people will be wearing masks and that is a big difference form last year. They will take more flu shots and there is less population density so there will be potentially significantly less flu.
One scientists had a recent article suggesting that NY may have already hit herd immunity on COVID but it is uncertain.
Many commercial space rents remain high and landlords are willing to wait long stretches, years even without even collecting rent. There will be a lot of retail business closures
but I think there is a lot of complexity and a mixed bag of unpredictable consequences.
Also Trump has the gas pedal on the vaccine aiming for late October early November.
However even if that does happen it will take a long time for it to be distributed and many of the people who are anti-mask now may be a part of the anti-vax crowd.
Then there could be a political problem if schools say their kid can't go to school without the vaccine
-- but I'm not sure when the timing of that might be because kids will already be in school at that point.
Keep an eye on the schools through October. Since kids over 10 can spread COVID as much as adults if they don't cause a significant upsurge that may lead to more of a population return
- but it could go the other way also
For now it will be a combination of online classes and outdoor but that may evolve to indoor as the weather gets cold
If you think you have a very secure job in NY it could be worth the gamble to get one of those lowered leases or wait one more month to see if there are further reductions. Note the Trump eviction moratorium applies through December 31, 2020. It will remain to be seen if what happens after that, theoretically after that people will be also responsible for back rent under the moratorium. Obviously they won't be able to pay it. But evictions served don't happen instantly. You may get a cheap rent but by the time you move in a big homeless crisis in the neighborhood. New York could start to bounce back in 2022, if not 2030. It's very hard to predict. It all depends what your role is
I think there'll be a RE massacre in 6-12 months. IMO, there's a virtually 0% chance things get back to normal in the next 6 months.
The game in NYC was multifaceted. Plenty of tourists. Plenty of people who replaced those moving out. Millions of commuters from out of NYC. We've lost all of that.
It's bad..I don't think many realize just how bad yet.
You are the same guy posting on how COVID is not a big deal and the offices should be open.
Your reckless attitude now has you looking at apartments where people are getting shot, killed or paralyzed. All for a 10% discount?
Re-evaluate your life priorities. If you even want to live.
I'm not looking those neighborhoods. I'm not about that life. However, overall crime has an.effect on the ENTIRE city. Increased crime depresses demand. Especially amongst outsiders who've lived sheltered lives . Simple as that.
10% is just the start. I'm targeting 20-25% when all.is said and done.
I guess it's the one scientist Hitting the Bong too much.
You can't have herd immunity when antibodies only last 3 months.
Meanwhile there's no antibodies for lead bullets piercing internal organs.
We most likely already have enough immunity in NYC to lower the R0 substantially. There have been numerous papers that have posited that previous beliefs about here immunity may be wrong. The level at which herd immunity may be reached will vary from subgroup to subgroup based on a variety of factors. The thesis is that herd immunity thresholds may be as low as 20% among some subgroups and 40% for cities such as NYC. From all.od the data that we have, we are very near 40% if not already past it.
You are the same guy posting on how COVID is not a big deal and the offices should be open.
Your reckless attitude now has you looking at apartments where people are getting shot, killed or paralyzed. All for a 10% discount?
Re-evaluate your life priorities. If you even want to live.
You can get some great deals on apartment where everybody there gets shot if you call the landlord the next day " I don't care about the blood stains and bullet holes, I want this place ASAP, can we say 25% off since three people were killed, 10% for the adults, 5% for the child? "
Immigrated to NYC when I was three (late 1980s). Basically "born" and raised. I love this city and it's sad seeing it on the decline for the first time in my life. Our leaders are full blown clowns and it's sad they're ruining lives for no good reason at all
However, my wife and I are in the market for an apartment. Everytime I hear about a shooting, my next thought is, "prices just edged a bit lower".
I'm literally having brokers respond 5 minutes after inquiring about a listing and constantly following up. Prices already down ~10% listings innth $500-700k range in "premium" neighborhoods. That's unheard of. At the height of the financial crisis in 2008, they were down around 10%.
Never thought I'd say this but certain neighborhoods ( those who were in the process of gentrifying) are overbuilt with condos. Who's buying a 600aq ft $600K condo in Bed Study or Bushwick?
I think it'll get worse before it gets better. People still aren't panicking yet. I think they will be early next year when there's still no vaccine , flu cases will be lumped in with COVID, and Manhattan is still devoid of workers and tourists.
Response:
Yet on the flip side of the coin some solid neighborhoods have suddenly jumped
in price as the demand for a " SAFER " environment is now becoming as rare as
hen's teeth and those who can afford it are willing to pay any amount for securing
a " SAFE "place to live.
Yet on the flip side of the coin some solid neighborhoods have suddenly jumped
in price as the demand for a " SAFER " environment is now becoming as rare as
hen's teeth and those who can afford it are willing to pay any amount for securing
a " SAFE "place to live.
That's not true. I'm seeing ALL neighborhoods taking a hit.
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