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I would imagine they won't be building these on spec. They usually only start construction of big office towers when they have an anchor tenant. This is why, for example, 2 WTC is still just a foundation. Also remember, most of these will come on line in 2040, by that time, there will be a new generation of people who never even worked during the pandemic. The revenue is for the next 45 years after, which puts us at the year 2085+... People would talk about COVID like people today talk about Spanish flu.
The way we work has shifted though, the more we dive into VR the fewer people will have to show up to things like conferences in person. I myself have attended many talks/work conferences virtually. Zoom & teams is just the start of what can be done. By 2040 we will have even more virtual options.
Who wants to go into an office after the technology we are creating
The way we work has shifted though, the more we dive into VR the fewer people will have to show up to things like conferences in person. I myself have attended many talks/work conferences virtually. Zoom & teams is just the start of what can be done. By 2040 we will have even more virtual options.
Who wants to go into an office after the technology we are creating
Nobody constructs buildings based on some future technology use that MAAAYBE pans out. If what you say you actually believe in, and you can indeed predict the future of technology and use cases, I will assume you already went all in on META stock, quit your job, and expect to be a millionaire by 2040... At the very least, you are some kind of big time billionaire VC. Meanwhile, rational people with actual money are building office towers, just like back in the 1950s rational people were not building private airports in Manhattan expecting flying cars by year 2000, which it was common knowledge of obviously happening.
I believe technology is changing and will continue to change how we do a lot in the world. For example a few years ago kids were still doing homework on paper etc, now a lot of homework is given via iPads/computers.
I would be ignorant to think technology will not have an impact on how my day to day work life goes (it already has) and I only expect it to grow as the years go by.
I believe technology is changing and will continue to change how we do a lot in the world. For example a few years ago kids were still doing homework on paper etc, now a lot of homework is given via iPads/computers.
I would be ignorant to think technology will not have an impact on how my day to day work life goes (it already has) and I only expect it to grow as the years go by.
That has nothing to do about predicting specific future use cases of technology and the second order effects. Even the people who actually work on these future technologies and the venture capitalists, who have all the data, current knowledge of all cutting edge research, access to prototypes that won't be on the mass market 5 years from now, on average, get it about 90% of the time wrong. If you can actually predict specific use cases decades from now with any kind of relative certainty, you can leverage that knowledge to make millions.
Technology advancing in VR means less need to go into an office for work, that is the point I was trying to make......
I guess we can talk in 5 years but Hudson Yards is showing this has a high chance of also failing...
What do you mean of "also failing"? Hudson Yards, despite its poor layout and poor master plan, didn't fail.
Just to do some accounting:
Hudson Yards cost the city about $3.3 billion in total - including 7 train extension, cost overruns, interest payments, parks, etc. The city has already received over $660 million in payments back. At this rate, all the money that was spent on the "failing" Hudson yards will be paid off in about 10 more years, and after that it will be pure surplus.
The article I attached in my original post speaks to what I mentioned about Hudson Yards failing
The NYT article author has no idea what they are talking about. It is a poorly researched article that omits facts. It is a bunch of scaremongering for clicks and outrage porn for NIMBYs. Most of the article is pure speculation and author's own imagination.
Even Vornado, the developer themselves, doesn't know in detail what the buildings will look like, but this NYT journo already knows the building heights! This will certainly be news to the actual project developers.
"KPMG’s move is another blow to New York City’s office market, [...] Amazon and Meta announced they would slow their expansion plans and Yelp said it would close its Flatiron District offices as it shifts to a remote work model. "
Height of buildings in NYC is driven by zoning and economics, not "male preoccupation with size". These types of projects involve billions of dollars, years of planning and engineering, and hundreds of people, some of whom don't even have a penis...
Also, the buildings would not be as tall as NYT reports. The reporter has no idea what he is talking about.
You know I'm being sarcastic, right?
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