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London's likely to see a drop in rankings, so it's not going to be a contender for number one. London *was* the primary financial center for the EU, but that's eroding, and in my view, their talk of being a kind of "Singapore of Europe" sort of thing doesn't seem to recognize that Singapore has a strong hold on Southeast Asia because its financial instruments and institutions are *much* more developed than those thhe countries surrounding it, the Southeast Asian markets are growing rapidly much faster than the European ones, and that the Singaporean government itself has massive holdings within Southeast Asian and can coordinate some influence over those markets. I don't think Singapore or Hong Kong can do it either. Singapore through Temasek Holdings and their subsidiaries and partial ownership of things abroad in the larger southeast Asian area can coordinate quite a bit of things, but there's been a resurgence of protectionism sometimes geared towards Chinese ethnic groups sometimes geared specifically towards Singaporeans (which is often identified as Chinese) in nearby countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia where Singapore has quite large stakes. Hong Kong is seemingly being purposefully whittled down in importance by the Mainland Chinese government. SF/Bay Area's rise in the GFCI rankings has been meteoric for places in the top level (it's easier to do dramatic changes at the lower level with a lower base of productivity / transactions), but it's still substantially smaller so making up that difference would be quite difficult though perhaps there will be some surprising turns. This makes NYC's continued pole position for at least the next several years pretty likely with Shanghai possibly Beijing after what I think is an inevitable eventual change away from zero covid policies and the settling of uncertainty of a likely third term for Xi in the coming weeks being the most likely contender after that.
I am actually surprised about SF rise, since VC capital is actually moving away from SF. At least compared to the past. What is causing such rise in SF? It is possible not so much the rise, but problems and challenges of other financial capitals.
I also foresee Hong Kong's status declining in the future. There should be no reason to extend its special status after the 2047 date, even if people there want it. That train left the station after the HK protests.
London shot itself with Brexit. Now they're moving things to Belfast, Northern Ireland ( cannot say UK or some people will literally get triggered). Belfast remains affordable because of the HEAVY govt subsidies to promote peace. Not a bad place to do business if you don't mind Iraq levels of military checkpoints.
Overstating things with London, and way, *way* overstating things with Belfast in terms of things moving there as well as military checkpoints.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-30-2022 at 01:03 PM..
GFCI, compiled by Z/Yen, a City of London think tank, and the China Development Institute, rated 119 financial centres using 66,121 assessments from 11,038 financial professionals, and quantitative data.
New York City led by a pretty wide margin over second ranked London.
Top 5:
1 NYC
2 London
3 Singapore
4 Hong Kong
5 San Francisco
Intresting history of all of these. British empire propped up nyc, Hong Kong and Singapore all for trade. London the original global trading up. Ahh you gotta love capitalism.
The British pound is falling. Another thing is that London was the financial hub. Even during America founding during colonial and indepdent era. Nyc was financially tied to London. When America became independent. British empire expanded and made other trading hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong. British empire decline thanks to Kaiser wilhem the 2nd and Adolf hitler for putting strain on Britain during the world Wars. Both wars the United States had to bail out and defend the British. Instead of London making political and financial choices for the world. Now it's NYC and DC that does that.
The big problem for nyc is that the United States will follow the same path of its father nation great Britain. Dubai will end up being the next big global trading hub which brings together Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia at its core. Especially since the Dubai is equidistant to all major parts of the globe except for western hemisphere. That's my two cents on this. Just hope and prey that China Russia and India don't become global hegemons in 20 years. This will allow Dubai to benefit. Another good look is Frankfurt as major center of European commerce instead of London.
I love geopolitics. To bad many Americans especially New Yorkers don't understand geopolitics. Live too much in a bubble.
The British pound is falling. Another thing is that London was the financial hub. Even during America founding during colonial and indepdent era. Nyc was financially tied to London. When America became independent. British empire expanded and made other trading hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong. British empire decline thanks to Kaiser wilhem the 2nd and Adolf hitler for putting strain on Britain during the world Wars. Both wars the United States had to bail out and defend the British. Instead of London making political and financial choices for the world. Now it's NYC and DC that does that.
The big problem for nyc is that the United States will follow the same path of its father nation great Britain. Dubai will end up being the next big global trading hub which brings together Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia at its core. Especially since the Dubai is equidistant to all major parts of the globe except for western hemisphere. That's my two cents on this. Just hope and prey that China Russia and India don't become global hegemons in 20 years. This will allow Dubai to benefit. Another good look is Frankfurt as major center of European commerce instead of London.
I love geopolitics. To bad many Americans especially New Yorkers don't understand geopolitics. Live too much in a bubble.
There is little indication that Dubai will become the leading financial center in the world. They have cultivated a very limited base almost completely dominated by short-term international transplants who have fairly limited desire to stay there for very long, but instead is a constant revolving door where people essentially make their money and then leave. Its oil wealth isn't guaranteed to retain its current high value in the coming decades and there are very limited industries and human capital it can draw from otherwise. It's pretty useless as an entrepot and its global shipping status is almost wholly dependent on oil exports and luxury imports, and even then, it has major contenders even within the same country. I think it's a very long shot for it to place at the top. The way GFCI's methodology works is that it becomes increasingly difficult to make large advancements once you're higher up in the rankings, and I don't think that's about to change unless they change the methodology at which point previous rankings are no longer apple to apple comparisons.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 10-03-2022 at 02:57 PM..
The British pound is falling. Another thing is that London was the financial hub. Even during America founding during colonial and indepdent era. Nyc was financially tied to London. When America became independent. British empire expanded and made other trading hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong. British empire decline thanks to Kaiser wilhem the 2nd and Adolf hitler for putting strain on Britain during the world Wars. Both wars the United States had to bail out and defend the British. Instead of London making political and financial choices for the world. Now it's NYC and DC that does that.
The big problem for nyc is that the United States will follow the same path of its father nation great Britain. Dubai will end up being the next big global trading hub which brings together Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia at its core. Especially since the Dubai is equidistant to all major parts of the globe except for western hemisphere. That's my two cents on this. Just hope and prey that China Russia and India don't become global hegemons in 20 years. This will allow Dubai to benefit. Another good look is Frankfurt as major center of European commerce instead of London.
I love geopolitics. To bad many Americans especially New Yorkers don't understand geopolitics. Live too much in a bubble.
Dubai will end up being the next big global trading hub ?
A dessert ? It's summer all year round for heaven's sake........ No body likes to sweat before going to work.....during or after................
Hate to see someone hike 160 floors ( Burg Khalifa ) up a staircase if the power ever goes down.
Nothing beats 4 seasons......... and you are blessed if your country has them.
The only things that move fast in a dessert are road runners and tumble weeds..............I can never outrun them. Never happen. My 2 cents.
China Russia and India don't become global hegemons in 20 years?
You need an Economy ,Natural Resources and Contributing members of Society all wrapped up in one.
Don't see any of those countries mentioned achieving all three in my life time.
At the rate the U.S. is going ,thank you Democrooks, destroying economy ,infrastructure and family nucleus it is easy to
speculate a weakening of the greatest super power on the planet. Not to be confused with forfeiture.
When Americans are finally tired of all the crap they will come out in droves to better government by voting.
Unless you fully understand the resiliency of real Hard working ,Country loving, God Fearing,Family Focused Americans
and not the clowns you see on T.V. I can only guess you are only living in a plastic bubble. Definitely not this New Yorker.
I see the writing on the wall................
Last edited by Mr.Retired; 10-15-2022 at 05:17 PM..
I am actually surprised about SF rise, since VC capital is actually moving away from SF. At least compared to the past. What is causing such rise in SF? It is possible not so much the rise, but problems and challenges of other financial capitals.
I also foresee Hong Kong's status declining in the future. There should be no reason to extend its special status after the 2047 date, even if people there want it. That train left the station after the HK protests.
San Francisco Bay Area home to Uber, Apple, Google, Adobe, Facebook, Zoom, Airbnb, Intel, PayPal, Lyft, Nvidia graphics cards, AMD graphic cards they are major player in United States and global level.
Greater Seattle is lesser to degree but still major player as well with Microsoft, Amazon, Nintendo.
A "global financial center" can only exist within whoever holds the largest economy in the world. Singapore, Dubai, London? You fools should stop regurgitating YouTube videos and think a little for yourselves.
Any city after the #1 spot are just secondary and tertiary localized nodes which diffuse the #1 spots services in their local regions.
As long as the US remains the largest and most productive economy on earth, a US city (most likely NYC) will occupy the #1 spot.
A "global financial center" can only exist within whoever holds the largest economy in the world. Singapore, Dubai, London? You fools should stop regurgitating YouTube videos and think a little for yourselves.
Any city after the #1 spot are just secondary and tertiary localized nodes which diffuse the #1 spots services in their local regions.
As long as the US remains the largest and most productive economy on earth, a US city (most likely NYC) will occupy the #1 spot.
Singapore is just back offices and banks for American and European companies focus on Asia- Pacific market such as Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, India etc.
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