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If we take just 10% of these cars, that's 5k need to be recharged. That's 5k charging spots needed, assuming 50k EVs are out there. There are only 6 supercharging sites in NYC right now, assuming each has 10 charging spots. That's only 600 spots max. These numbers are inflated. Because that's a lot of space needed and there aren't that many space available in NYC. They would need to greatly reduce bike path and bus lanes in order to create that many charging spots.
The #1 problem with EVs right now is the charging speeds are still too slow. You can't simply charge within 5 mins and leave like gas cars.
I don't know why we are debating about EVs when someone needs to do the math and process the possibility of mandating something that is mathematically impossible unless there's some major breakthrough by 2030 where as the charging stations are installed and the electrical grid is upgraded substantially.
For 40 years+ NYC is fixing that small stretch of the BQE and haven't finished or done anything major. I doubt in 40 years we will have the charging stations available throughout NYC.
It's a gridlock nightmare to have that many EVs occupy NYC without expansion of charging stations all across nyc. Right now there are very few parking spots for cars let alone charging stations.
The best idea I can think of is build some type of off the water extension to allow EVs park all along west side highway but given the amount of electricity needed. It will never happen. The electrical supply necessary is impossible.
If we take just 10% of these cars, that's 5k need to be recharged. That's 5k charging spots needed, assuming 50k EVs are out there. There are only 6 supercharging sites in NYC right now, assuming each has 10 charging spots. That's only 600 spots max. These numbers are inflated. Because that's a lot of space needed and there aren't that many space available in NYC. They would need to greatly reduce bike path and bus lanes in order to create that many charging spots.
The #1 problem with EVs right now is the charging speeds are still too slow. You can't simply charge within 5 mins and leave like gas cars.
It's a gridlock nightmare to have that many EVs occupy NYC without expansion of charging stations all across nyc. Right now there are very few parking spots for cars let alone charging stations.
The best idea I can think of is build some type of off the water extension to allow EVs park all along west side highway but given the amount of electricity needed. It will never happen. The electrical supply necessary is impossible.
It's foolish to do the math using conditions that are extremely unlikely to hold more than six years from now. This goes up and down from number of charging locations, to the range of vehicles when fully charged, to the speed at which the vehicles charge. That is an incredibly wrong way to look at this, even odder given the vast improvements from the previous six years, and you need to acknowledge that first.
Then you need to acknowledge your other faulty assumptions such as why exactly you need a public charger for every vehicle. Instead, you're now introducing even more faulty assumptions. Why, if you're talking about fast chargers, would there be a need for anything close to a ten-to-one number of fast charging spots per vehicle? And for what reason do bike paths and bus lanes need to be removed for charging spots if charging can be where parking spots are?
There are actually reasonable bases for some level of concern here, and there will need to be more fast charging stations as EV uptake increases, but to pretend that the conditions stay the same even as EV adoption increases seems completely unreasonable. Gantz has a reasonable attribute to factor in which would be that a tiny fraction of the vehicles in 2030 doing rideshare in 2030 will be MY2030, and that's something to be factored in, but he's not assuming that virtually all EVs in 2030 are going to be the EVs that are on the streets today, and certainly no one's dumb enough to think that the EV chargers in place today, which are *not* in place of bike lanes or bus lanes or even in place of on-street parking, are going to be the extent of public chargers in NYC in 2030. The ~180 or so DC fast charging public stalls in NYC proper are pretty much all within the last few years and the install rates are *increasing* save for the pandemic hiccup in 2020 and 2021. It makes no sense to think that this will stop given increases in EV adoption rates, and would make a lot of sense for the pace of install to increase. These aren't taking up bike lanes or bus lanes--they're mostly installed on private property that is publicly accessible for charging. Why you think this would change to cannibalizing bus lanes and bike lanes is a head scratcher.
Also, keep in mind, irrespective of what NYC legislates, Uber has already announced that drivers will need to be using electric vehicles on their platform by 2030.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-07-2023 at 03:02 PM..
New Laws = new powers ,new ways to hold unto power via giving out handouts to your supporters and punishing your opponents. It's a game as old as time.
I think it's doubtful that even without the law, there'd be anything more than a handful of internal combustion engine uber and lyfts in NYC by 2030 given how quickly EVs have improved and look likely to continue to improve in at least the near term.
Yea, $15K Camry is insanely out of touch with car prices.
I do think officials and most of NYC vehicle fleet should move to EVs and that has been happening. The Prius and the Volt are actually both hybrids and the Volt has been discontinued for a few years. There are quite a few options for Suburban / Yukon EV equivalents that do not have tailpipe emissions while idling and that's a great use case for EVs, and that would make sense, though I agree that smaller cars would be better. I have seen some parks department Chevrolet Bolts going around.
NY should definitely work on improving and hardening the electrical grid regardless of what powertrain is used for ridershare services. It certainly has the transmission and distribution infrastructure since it's built meant for peak demand which has high daily variations and EVs can be charged during off-peak times, but you still need it to be hardened so that it's less likely to have blackouts.
"Heavy metal" mining as you put it, is generally controversial when people are talking about labor conditions surrounding cobalt. This has been a long running issue as cobalt is used in the refining of oil, but has become a larger talking point once it became a target due to being used in some EV battery chemistries. The good thing is that not all EV battery chemistries need to use cobalt, and for the ones that do, the amount of cobalt needed per kWh of capacity has decreased by a massive amount. LFP batteries which do not use cobalt, have over the last year finally had some of its core patents expire so it's expected to surge in use in the US, as it has in China for the last few years, over the next few years.
An interesting tidbit is that the improvements in battery technology mostly geared towards EVs, are also what made utility scale battery electric storage systems viable, and that's a component for why California last summer, despite having record peak electricity consumption during a record summer heat wave, was able to not have rolling blackouts in 2022, despite having them just two years earlier at a significantly lower peak electrical consumption. Unfortunately, NYS has been far slower at rolling out large utility scale battery electric storage systems, but they are at least planned.
Do you want to put your money where your mouth is? You constantly make patently incorrect assertions that are borderline asinine.
I can see 80%+ of ride share vehicles in NYC being hybrids but not EV's. If you think 80%+ of rideshare vehicles in NYC will be EV's by 2030, put some money on it.
We don't have the electrical generation capacity for adding hundreds of thousands of EVs to the grid. Even if we could, transmission infrastructure couldn't handle the extra demand. And peak electrical use hours are from 7am - 11pm, encompassing a lot of hours during which vehicles would have to be charged, particularly ones being used all day to transport people around the city.
The average electric vehicle requires 30 kilowatt-hours to travel 100 miles — the same amount of electricity an average American single-family home uses each day to run appliances, computers, lights and heating and air conditioning. The average cabbie drives 180 per day, more if the car is being used in multiple shifts. A quick search shows that there are about 80k people driving cabs and ride sharing vehicles in the city. By napkin math then we would be adding the equivalent of ~150,000 private homes to the grid. Good luck with that.
The "solutions" to cobalt and other heavy metals, while promising, are mostly just in the lab at this point. I'm not aware of any of these products making it to market at all, none the less at large scale. It will take a lot of time to get there. We are also running short on easily accessible lithium, and the process of mining it is extremely nasty.
As for California, it didn't just build batteries, it re-opened shuttered fossil fuel plants, added new ones, and bought power from neighboring states. And despite that the state is still on track to face more rolling blackouts in the future.
Regardless, the power itself has to be generated before it can be stored in a battery. I don't see any plans for new nuclear plants around here, do you? The latest crackpot scheme is to close the city's largest natural gas plant and replace it with windmills. FFS.
Don't be naive. This isn't a play to cut car use. The politicians couldn't give a rat's ass about that.
This is a newfound way to extend and maintain power. The best defense is a good offense. The scumbag politicians know that layering on new laws is better for maintaining the status quo than fighting battles about old ones.
The US median fleet age is 12 years old and EVs were at about 5% new vehicle market share last year though not equally distributed in the US.
You don't see much in 12 year old Ubers and Lyfts in NYC though. I seldom have encountered any vehicles remotely near the median age and these services encourage newer vehicles such as Uber encouraging 6 years or newer vehicles via eligibility for higher rate UberBlack service. There's also good reason to shift towards EVs as they get more efficient and more charging spots work because the kind of slow moving and stop-and-go traffic means you generally hit towards the top bits of rated range for EVs, so that's high efficiency and up time and the charging is much cheaper and the maintenance costs usually lower which is part of what Revel has been banking on with their Model Y vehicles.
Complete clownshow.
You ever thought that NYC, a city which hasn't had any notable infrastructure improvements in the past ~50 years (and can't repair/improve existing infrastructure at normal pace/cost), will not build out the necessary charging infrastructure by 2030? It's already a major impediment to EV adoption in NYC.
If we take just 10% of these cars, that's 5k need to be recharged. That's 5k charging spots needed, assuming 50k EVs are out there. There are only 6 supercharging sites in NYC right now, assuming each has 10 charging spots. That's only 600 spots max. These numbers are inflated. Because that's a lot of space needed and there aren't that many space available in NYC. They would need to greatly reduce bike path and bus lanes in order to create that many charging spots.
The #1 problem with EVs right now is the charging speeds are still too slow. You can't simply charge within 5 mins and leave like gas cars.
I don't know why we are debating about EVs when someone needs to do the math and process the possibility of mandating something that is mathematically impossible unless there's some major breakthrough by 2030 where as the charging stations are installed and the electrical grid is upgraded substantially.
For 40 years+ NYC is fixing that small stretch of the BQE and haven't finished or done anything major. I doubt in 40 years we will have the charging stations available throughout NYC.
It's a gridlock nightmare to have that many EVs occupy NYC without expansion of charging stations all across nyc. Right now there are very few parking spots for cars let alone charging stations.
The best idea I can think of is build some type of off the water extension to allow EVs park all along west side highway but given the amount of electricity needed. It will never happen. The electrical supply necessary is impossible.
He's a total clown. He/she just regurgitates whatever they read from their favorite online spots with zero analysis or thought. This is the same person that claimed that the MTA was a "world class organization" and that heat pumps are more "efficient" than gas furnaces (at heating homes in NYC).
One thing that'd probably be good for figuring out feasibility of this, the likely best allocation of level 2 to DC fast charging, the likely lowered emissions, and the estimated additional electricity consumption in lieu of gasoline consumption is to figure out on average what has been the number of miles driven per vehicle per day for rideshare in NYC (and it'd be nice to get the variance as well). I think we can probably work back from that and see what reasonable allocations of level 2 charging vs DC fast charging would be. Regardless of what the spread is though, there's a profit motive involved in dispensing electricity, and as mentioned before, like with gas stations and refueling, recharging stations will likely have a profit attached to them and so there will be a market incentive for installing them as EV adoption rates get higher. However, as stated before, just as it makes no sense to assume the number of charging stations available today will be what's available six years from now, it also makes little sense to build out all the charging stations projected to be needed six year from now today.
I mentioned before in responding to Gantz that Uber is pushing for vehicles six years or younger, so that would put things at Model Year 2024 for qualifying for Uber Black in 2030. It's not yet Model Year 2024 and there are a large slate of updates or new entries for MY2024 (and basically every year for the near future) when it comes to EVs, but we can take as a basis the median EV range today as a bare minimum. That median range is the current Model 3 Standard Range, Model 3 Long Range or the Model Y--it'll have to be one of these as Tesla owns an outright majority of EV market share in the US and those are its big sellers. If we take the lowest range of these, the Model 3 Standard Range, that gets you 272 miles of EPA rated range. The EPA rated range has issues as you can opt for one of two testing results that would yield different numbers and automakers are allowed to arbitrarily lower the result of their *official* rating, so they're pretty bad for comparing among vehicles. The EPA cycle also has a fairly low speed and weighting for its highway cycle, so most people find their Teslas not reaching close to their EPA range as most real world highway driving is well above 65 mph, and until recently, Teslas did not have heat pumps so winter range can see some serious drops. However, those arguably don't apply here as NYC driving is very seldom long stretches of uninterrupted 75+ mph driving and all Teslas now come with heat pumps. The 272 miles of EPA rated range is part of the combined city/highway cycle and the city part of it is generally higher than the highway, so 272 miles is probably in pretty comfortable territory for NYC driving. There's also the fact that no one wants to drive their vehicle down to 0% (though Teslas and most perhaps all EVs have an under 0% buffer). There's also the general recommendation to only charge to 80% or 90% for increasing battery life, but that doesn't apply to the Model 3 Standard Range because it uses a LFP battery, cheaper because it doesn't use expensive minerals like cobalt or nickel, and LFP batteries do like going up to 100%. So, let's take that 10% out to about 244 miles of range and drop it down to a nice even 240 miles. Is that within the average number of miles a NYC rideshare vehicle does a day? What proportion are going above that and what proportion are going below?
I'll also point out that there's a sizable and growing livery company operating in NYC that uses exclusively electric vehicles, and they thus far seem to be doing well.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 02-07-2023 at 05:24 PM..
The average weekly mileage for ride share in NYC is readily available with a few minutes of searching and some simply math. Average miles per week hover around 400 and that's not counting commute times for drivers since most live in the outer boroughs. Figure 500 miles per week. That's at least 2 charge cycles minimum and during the winter most likely 3 per week.
Also, Characterizing Revel as "sizable" is a lie.There are over 150,000 ride share cars in NYC and Revel has a whopping fleet of how many Tesla's? They started out with 50 vehicles in 2021 and their business model is floundering. All they managed to do in 2 years is expand from 72nd to 96th street. I'm not even joking.
Can you explain to us how you came to the conclusion that one half of one-tenth of one percent is "sizable"?
If the Whartons, the Biddles, the Coopers, and the Koch's were forced to take subways, the trains would become safe and comfortable in the blink of an eye.
How to do it? Set a tax rate for taxis, ubers, and lyfts at $500 for the first tenth of a mile, the proceeds of which go to the MTA. Eventually these outmoded, inefficient ways of ferrying the rich around will disappear.
Last edited by Kefir King; 02-08-2023 at 06:05 AM..
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