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Yes, those are some pretty pathetic numbers. Although, of course, even with a paltry 1% increase there are still well over 3,000,000 private sector jobs in NYC. Since no other city anywhere in the state even has close to three million residents, that's not too shabby.
"While Syracuse's economy is suspect, it actually has probably the best job market out of the major cities in NY state."
Upstate NY has serious problems. The economy was based on blue collar manufacturing, which has left the country. Lots of people out of work and few jobs. High NY tax rates and a bad reputation for harsh winters keep job growth low. There is no comparison between upstate NY and NYC - they are entirely different worlds.
We have had a dramatic gasoline price spike, and everyone is now predicting the end of the world. People are poring money into oil and commody stocks chasing past high returns, and driving prices higher. Is it the end of the world - hardly. Plenty of oil still available, and prices will stabilize. Hopefully, we will develop a better energy policy to conserve instead of subsidizing waste - most inefficient autos. But let's not pretend that everyone is going to leave the suburbs for the city, except the poor who are going to be tenant farmers on the front lawns of nice suburban homes. That's a bunch of nonsense. Even with high energy prices, the cost of living in NYC is much higher than in the suburbs. In Syracuse, you can buy a 3 BR house for $80,000. What can $80,000 buy you in Manhattan?
I have friends in upstate NY who won't even visit NYC - some upstate NYers have never even been to NYC. You can't attribute your own preferences to the rest of the world.
There are no doubt advantages to living in a 3 bedroom house in Syracuse for $80,000, and in the past this is what drove people away from cities and into places like Syracuse. However, the dynamics have changed....the house may be $80,000 now, but not because it is a place to live! The job sector is anemic, public transportation is abysmal, driving for everything is required, winters are brutal, as is the heating and maintenance bills.
By that logic, we should all move to South America, you can get a house for $5,000 there...why don't we? Because when you consider ALL factors, especially today, that $5,000 house is cheap, but that is all there is...a cheap house. People have to live to..and places like Syracuse have nothing other than cheap housing...how is that desirable? It isn't..and the costs for that cheap house is not so cheap anymore, with heating and gas prices taking a HUGE chunk of your money..and with few to no high paying jobs...where is that money coming from? There are no options..but hey...you got a cheap house! Good luck with that.
But before you pack up your life and move to that cheap house in Syracuse, you should know what you're going to deal with when wintertime comes around. There's the phenomenon of "lake effect snow." Cold air blowing south from Canada picks up moisture over the Great Lakes...and dumps huge quantities of snow over western and central New York State. My sister used to live in Syracuse, and she gave me descriptions of eight and ten-foot high snowdrifts...two and three-foot snowfalls at a time (more than once a week!)
So in addition to a sluggish economy, you're going to find yourself face to face with winter weather like you may never have seen it before. Just keep that in mind.
So far NYC has weathered the storm pretty well. But Los Angeles has seen its foreclosure rate quadruple and Miami's has doubled. LA's losses are estimated at 5 BILLION DOLLARS!!!
Foreclosures create many of the same problems in both the burbs and cities--empty houses that fall into disrepair, occupation by squatters or worse, drug dealers.
Corporate bankruptcies are up 33%. The financial services sevtor keeps taking losses and laying off workers. That is where NYC's vulnerabitlity lies, in the faltering financial and banking sectors. Not only is unemployment going up in those areas, but the ever important year-end bonus is about to get a lot smaller, and those bonuses are important to the city.
Don't forget the shifting demographics of the Baby Boomers, the largest generation to have such influence over cities and commerce. The first wave are now in their 60s and many are trading car dependent suburbs where they raised their children for urban locales with walkable services. This generation is used to making things work for them, and are more active than previous generations such that these moves to closer-in, dense suburbs and urban centers is likely to continue to influence suburbs. That said, it's the far out suburbs that are most vulnerable.
Don't forget the shifting demographics of the Baby Boomers, the largest generation to have such influence over cities and commerce. The first wave are now in their 60s and many are trading car dependent suburbs where they raised their children for urban locales with walkable services. This generation is used to making things work for them, and are more active than previous generations such that these moves to closer-in, dense suburbs and urban centers is likely to continue to influence suburbs. That said, it's the far out suburbs that are most vulnerable.
Ultimately, companies have to go where the workers are. If the Boomers buy up the housing in the cities, then the companies may re-locate office space closer to where there workers can afford to live (and where it's cheaper) Telecommuting becomes more and more an option with every increase in computer technology. There are 20 million people living in the NYC area, they aren't all moving back to Queens and Hoboken LOL
As soon as the economy gets a grip again I'm sure the suburbs will come back.
You mean, like athlete's foot?
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