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Financial industry represents some 10% of jobs but pays ~35-40% of NYC's tax revenue
How many financial industry jobs will be left in Manhattan 1-3yrs from now? What will bonus levels be? Investment banks as companies won't be paying taxes to NY/NYC for next ?2-3yrs b/c of tax loss carryforwards
How many laid-off investment bankers can afford to raise kids in Manhattan, paying $30K/yr/rugrat for pvt schools...vs decent, "free" public schools in cheaper suburbs like Scarsdale?
NY/NYC will likely seek special tax increases on the higher-income people still residing in NYC....
IIRC, Greenwich's inc tax is ~5% vs NYC's ~9%
And many cos. like Pfizer, etc can easily move headquarters out of Manhattan into lower-cost, lower-tax suburbs, like Stamford, closer to where many execs live...or just leave for places like suburban Dallas....just as Exxon, etc did....
Would guess all cities in US will face a drain of profitable companies and affluent taxpayers out of cities and into lower-cost, lower-tax, lower-crime suburbs, w/decent public schools, nr where most executives and middle managers prefer to live anyway....sounds like the '70s repeated....
I do feel some of that is going to happen. But the problem with that like it has been discussed on other threads in this forum is that people in the suburbs generally don't want too many big corporations moving their facilities into their suburbs. The other problem is that often suburbs don't have the infrastructure necessary to accommodate too many companies coming in.
Would guess all cities in US will face a drain of profitable companies and affluent taxpayers out of cities and into lower-cost, lower-tax, lower-crime suburbs, w/decent public schools, nr where most executives and middle managers prefer to live anyway....sounds like the '70s repeated....
Perhaps, but I wonder how much fuel costs will affect things long-term. Yes we have some nice low fuel prices now but petroleum is still a finite resource with rising demand. The market will fluctuate but over time the costs of petroleum and other fossil fuels will go up. I think that as that happens, the burbs won't be the best place to be anymore.
Also, check out this map. Not exactly a ton of info but it shows that while NYC may be in recession or in danger of such, there are still cities that are in growth.
Oh cmon, it isn't possible that NY would go back to the 70s and 80s. There's all these acts and laws about insurance and all that. I don't know specifics about it though, but it prevents selfish people from burning down buildings like they did in the 70s. If anything, NYers will be moving out of state to somewhere cheaper. There won't be rising crime and more filth around the city as a result.
ummm the 70s and 80s was more than some people burning down buildings.
Anyone who thinks that video isn't possible.Just realize it was made in 2005 and many of the things it says has already come to pass. We still have a long way to go.
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Originally Posted by neodorian
Perhaps, but I wonder how much fuel costs will affect things long-term. Yes we have some nice low fuel prices now but petroleum is still a finite resource with rising demand. The market will fluctuate but over time the costs of petroleum and other fossil fuels will go up. I think that as that happens, the burbs won't be the best place to be anymore.
Also, check out this map. Not exactly a ton of info but it shows that while NYC may be in recession or in danger of such, there are still cities that are in growth.
deleveraging means dollar grows stronger. Strong dollar means it takes less dollars to buy a set amount of resources priced in dollars, in this case oil. What happens once the deleveraging is over and inflation kicks in (which it will).
I think NYC should be nervous about a repeat of the 70s..why? Not because the "old" NY was so great as many ridiculously assert..but because it was SO BAD. But as we have seen since that time, the city has learned from its mistakes (the hardway). It has spent tens of billions rebuilding the city (literally), and has concentrated much of tis development in areas that were hit the hardest. In the midst of this financial crisis (globally), NYC along with the rest of the world is taking a hit. But ask yourself this...would you rather be in Podunk, Ohio that has jobs that pay $6 an hour and some manufacturing facilities as the employer base, with people struggling DURING THE BEST OF TIMES...or would you rather be in the wealthiest city in the country, with monumental Tenant protections, with access to TONS of federal, state, and city assistance at your fingertips, cheap/reliable/accessible public transportation and walking distance to most basic staples, a hugely diversified employment base and TONS of opportunities even in the very worst of times, and the epicenter of global tourism in the states, with the wealth and diversified incomes? The answer is clear to me..I am glad to be in the city and I plan to stay. I am confident the city will whether the storm far better than most areas.
And as far as crime..anyone who thinks it is skyrocketing is WRONG. Crime is up MARGINALLY and 2008 is in fact the 2nd lowest crime rate ever recorded (since they started keeping records in 1964 I believe). And what was the lowest on record? Oh thats right...2007....and what was the 3rd lowest...oh yeah...2006. The trend is decidedly downward over the last few years...and although there may be upticks in crime, the longterm trends are what matter.
I think NYC should be nervous about a repeat of the 70s..why? Not because the "old" NY was so great as many ridiculously assert..but because it was SO BAD. But as we have seen since that time, the city has learned from its mistakes (the hardway). It has spent tens of billions rebuilding the city (literally), and has concentrated much of tis development in areas that were hit the hardest. In the midst of this financial crisis (globally), NYC along with the rest of the world is taking a hit. But ask yourself this...would you rather be in Podunk, Ohio that has jobs that pay $6 an hour and some manufacturing facilities as the employer base, with people struggling DURING THE BEST OF TIMES...or would you rather be in the wealthiest city in the country, with monumental Tenant protections, with access to TONS of federal, state, and city assistance at your fingertips, cheap/reliable/accessible public transportation and walking distance to most basic staples, a hugely diversified employment base and TONS of opportunities even in the very worst of times, and the epicenter of global tourism in the states, with the wealth and diversified incomes? The answer is clear to me..I am glad to be in the city and I plan to stay. I am confident the city will whether the storm far better than most areas.
it WAS one of the wealthiest cities and that is ONLY because of wall street which we see now was fake, non existent money. Personally if I couldn't gain employment in a field that wont be hurt by this downturn, I would be on the first plane out of NYC to some where that did have sustainable jobs
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Originally Posted by SobroGuy
And as far as crime..anyone who thinks it is skyrocketing is WRONG. Crime is up MARGINALLY and 2008 is in fact the 2nd lowest crime rate ever recorded (since they started keeping records in 1964 I believe). And what was the lowest on record? Oh thats right...2007....and what was the 3rd lowest...oh yeah...2006. The trend is decidedly downward over the last few years...and although there may be upticks in crime, the longterm trends are what matter.
No it IS one of the wealthiest, and if NYC sinks..expect the rest of the country to sink much further. Only because of Wall street? If you believe that you do not know the economy in NYC. Furthermore...it is all fake nonexistent money...real estate, oil, gold..all of it..as it is all driven by what people PERCEIVE is the value...none of these things have ANY inherent value other than what we give it. That is our world..sorry to break it to you. And you nailed it right on the nose.. IF you could gain employment somewhere else that was better/safer/immune to the downturn you would...but why haven't you left? Because you can't! The best place to weather the storm is NOT in a place with a SMALLER and less Diversified employment base...the best place is where the dollars flow, the tourists ALWAYS swarm, the high end clientele remain, a diverse employment base etc. But hey..if you believe that Joopie, Wymoning with its plethora of $6/hr jobs and manufacturing plant is gonna provide you better job opportunities to whether the storm..go for it. I wonder why you haven't left yet?
And regarding crime..that 7.6% increase is normal, as year-to-year rates fluctuate and do not go down in a straight line..some years are up..some are down..that is normal variations. But when you look at the LONG TERM TREND..what do you see? That's like saying you will always lose money in the stock market because this year is down! Step back..look at the BIGGER picture and the longterm trends of BOTH and then tell me. 2008 is the second lowest crime rate on record...no matter how you look at it. 2007 is THE lowest....and 2006 is the second lowest. Will crime rates go up this year...sure...and maybe next year too..that's normal! What you DONT see is crimes rates going up 500%...THAT would be a problem...7.6% is a normal variation..and we are still at record lows. But I guess to some people the glass is always half empty.
No it IS one of the wealthiest, and if NYC sinks..expect the rest of the country to sink much further. Only because of Wall street? If you believe that you do not know the economy in NYC. Furthermore...it is all fake nonexistent money...real estate, oil, gold..all of it..as it is all driven by what people PERCEIVE is the value...none of these things have ANY inherent value other than what we give it. That is our world..sorry to break it to you. And you nailed it right on the nose.. IF you could gain employment somewhere else that was better/safer/immune to the downturn you would...but why haven't you left? Because you can't! The best place to weather the storm is NOT in a place with a SMALLER and less Diversified employment base...the best place is where the dollars flow, the tourists ALWAYS swarm, the high end clientele remain, a diverse employment base etc. But hey..if you believe that Joopie, Wymoning with its plethora of $6/hr jobs and manufacturing plant is gonna provide you better job opportunities to whether the storm..go for it. I wonder why you haven't left yet?
sigh, okay see you don't understand economics. I have a degree in the field and understand it all to well. Lets first take your statment about perceived value. You are talking about intrinsic value as it relates to a Fiat Montery system. You throwing gold and oil into the mix is a bit mind boggling. Gold = rare or precious metal, not in the same class a paper money which can be printed with no problem. Oil, errr you do realize what oil can do right? Anyway, none of that has ANYTHING to do with my statement. My statement has to do with Wall Street and its over valuation of bad financial vehicles. Now if you want to debate montery systems, we can do that, but it has nothing to do with this subject.
As for me not understanding NYC's economy. I think you need to do a bit more research. 3% of employment in NYC is wall street yet it makes up 20% of the income in the city (link). For the state, wall street accounts for 1/5th of NY states income (link). Your assertion about NYC ability to weather a downturn is on the side of silly. What determines better economic oppurtunities for people will depend on what they do for a living. For example, as people start to pour out of NYC, you will have less kids, and the school board will take a hit. So the smart thing to do is for teachers to go to places that young families are relocating too. That is one example, but you take that formula and apply it to any field. Some places will have a greater need for a particular job type. The smart thing is for people to stay nimble and have the ability to leave should the need/time arise. As for tourism, you must have absolutly no clue whats going on right now. Tourism is down and will continue to go down. People are not traveling as much, are not spending as much and the same goes for global tourismy. This is a global mess and as things get worse (they will) tourism too will take a greater hit. Nothing NYC has to offer right now will make it very reseleant. It has become over priced, and overly reliant on a industry which produces nothing and is on its way down the tubes. I won't debat this fact though, instead I leave you with the advice of doing more research. Educate yourself on Fiat monetary system as opposed to a commodity based one (this will teach you about intrisic value as opposed to non intrisic value), deleveraging, reserve currency, fractional reserve banking. Then you may have a better understanding of the subject matter. Some places are going to feel this downturn far worse than others. I assure you, NYC will not be among the ones that come out of this rosey, not by a long shot.
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Originally Posted by SobroGuy
And regarding crime..that 7.6% increase is normal, as year-to-year rates fluctuate and do not go down in a straight line..some years are up..some are down..that is normal variations. But when you look at the LONG TERM TREND..what do you see? That's like saying you will always lose money in the stock market because this year is down! Step back..look at the BIGGER picture and the longterm trends of BOTH and then tell me. 2008 is the second lowest crime rate on record...no matter how you look at it. 2007 is THE lowest....and 2006 is the second lowest. Will crime rates go up this year...sure...and maybe next year too..that's normal! What you DONT see is crimes rates going up 500%...THAT would be a problem...7.6% is a normal variation..and we are still at record lows. But I guess to some people the glass is always half empty.
Your assertion is ridiculous. Lets leave wall street and the stock market out of the conversation as you don't seem to understand it much. You need to research economic conditions and its correlation to crime, then get back to me.
I wouldn't say wall street is gone completely. New York has always been a major financial center, both when our currency was tied to gold and we were a production based economy and today, with the fiat and a consumption based economy. Yes, when the deleveraging is through, there will be inflation. While that will drive up commodity prices, this is not going to have nearly the same effect in NYC as it will, say Houston, Los Angeles, or Phoenix. Our transport system here in new york primarily runs on the energy generated from domestic commodities. As for the fiat, its not tied to a commodity but what currencies are tied to a commodity? That doesn't change the law of supply and demand as it applies to the dollar. The quantative easing is bringing more dollar supply that will eventually be brought into the market as soon as banks start to lend, and this will cause inflation, and yes, the inflation may be heavy. But this should be welcomed by you in particular if you think we don't produce enough, as this will make it more competive for domestic production. It will also drive investment in a number of sectors as high oil prices will force the market to change the way it consumes energy.
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You need to research economic conditions and its correlation to crime, then get back to me.
Hmmm.... research would actually show there is no direct correlation between economic downturns and crime. I don't expect crime to be anything like it was.
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sigh, okay see you don't understand economics. I have a degree in the field and understand it all to well. Lets first take your statment about perceived value. You are talking about intrinsic value as it relates to a Fiat Montery system. You throwing gold and oil into the mix is a bit mind boggling. Gold = rare or precious metal, not in the same class a paper money which can be printed with no problem. Oil, errr you do realize what oil can do right?
the fact that you say you know it all too well is pretty discrediting. Anybody who really knows economics knows that there are way to many macro economic variable inputs to make elaborate predictions. Of course, anybody with their eyes open can see that our banks were set to collapse. But while you are obviously entitled to your views, I am not convinced that NYC is in a weak position for the same reasons I discussed before: sustainable food and water supply, and a low energy usage system of transportation. And like i also said, if rents do fall in manhattan, other firms will move in. But it seems that you only listen to your own opinion as you haven't provided any response to this. show me otherwise. And sobroguy was right... gold is perceived value as well. What I can I do with gold? I can't eat it. I cant use it to take me anywhere. Like he said, the value is perceived (although oil has much more utility) other than certain industrial applications (its a good conductor). What makes its value steady is primarily the supply, as it is finite. But so are dollars. Same thing. yes, the value of the dollar drops when there is greater supply. But if we found a huge amount of gold mines, and lots of new gold were put on the market just like we're printing dollars, its value would drop too. Obivously, if we continued quantative easing in non-deflationary periods, we'd be in huge trouble, and that needs to be kept in check.
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