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kimchee, where have you been in the last 2 years? we have 1 of the worst recession in history due to this huge housing bubble, you sounded like you just came back from Mars
Haha, I actually moved to Hoboken where I bought a condo that cost more than my FH home. The RE market here was also very hot but corrected itself a few years ago so we're almost near the 2004/2005 level.
But price correction didn't appear to happen in FH though?
Will it ever happen or is it possible to see million dollar attached homes on a 20x100 lot in the next few years?
Haha, I actually moved to Hoboken where I bought a condo that cost more than my FH home. The RE market here was also very hot but corrected itself a few years ago so we're almost near the 2004/2005 level.
But price correction didn't appear to happen in FH though?
Will it ever happen or is it possible to see million dollar attached homes on a 20x100 lot in the next few years?
The whole real estate correction was definitely most pronounced in the condo and new construction markets everywhere and outside of NYC in general.There has been a correction in NYC but much less than in most of the country and mostly in new construction condos.
This is nothing new.NYC real estate seems to always weather the downturns faster and with less damage than the country as a whole.
There are neighborhoods in the city,particularly in the outer boroughs that have seen very little correction at all and prices have started going back up in those areas.
My guess is that you will see million dollar prices attached to such homes in the future but whether it's in the next few years is impossible to tell.
The answer is actually incredibly simple. It's GENTRIFICATION.
The price of Real Estate(or rent) in any area actually has nothing to do with the incomes of the people who live in the area.It has to do with the incomes of the people moving into the area.Whenever you have a situation where people are paying much ,much more for something than the people who already live in the area it means only one thing.The people doing the buying and moving in have a lot more money than the people who are already there and it's called GENTRIFICATION no matter where it occurs.
The dynamics are no different than hipsters moving into Williamsburg or Yuppies moving into Harlem.Most of the old time residents in Harlem can't afford million dollar condos .
People don't think about it much but essentially the entire city,almost every nook and cranny has been undergoing a process of GENTRIFICATION for decades.It's not only going on in poorer parts of Harlem,Brooklyn and parts of THE Bronx.It's going on even on the Upper East Side today.How many tens of thousands of people do you think live on the Upper East Side today who could never,ever afford to live there if they hadn't bought their apartments for $50,000 back in 1980 ?
No neighborhods in the city are going to stay the same for long.They are either going to go up or go down.There was a long period from the 60's until
the 90's when almost everything went down.Nobody wanted to live in NY.That has been reversed and now it seems as though everyone wants to live in NY. They are flocking here from everywhere ! Midwesterners bored with life in Iowa,Southerners trying to escape the bible belt,empty nest suburbanites from Westchester and LI ditching their big expensive houses and yards and Europeans with pots of money. They all want to live here now and as long as that goes on there will be gentrification going on everywhere because when people get priced out of one neighborhood they just go price someone else out of a neighborhood they can afford.It's not intentional.You just do what you got to do.
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Forest Hills didn't need to be gentrified. Forest Hills was middle/upper middle class hood for a LONG time. The physical neighborhood did not change, same beautiful hood. It just went along with the increase in rents across all of NYC.
No hipster came into Forest Hills and turned a ugly hood into a nice one.
Forest Hills has been nice since before the late 90s when gentrification began in the city.
I can tell you are not familiar with Forest Hills, Queens.
These are neighborhoods that have and are experiencing gentrification:
Inwood
Washington Heights
Harlem
Williamsburg
Prospect Heights
Bushwick
Astoria...and many more.
The areas you described are desirable because they are full of parks, one or small 2 family houses and have a neighborhood feel. The public schools are also great.
Most importantly, they are a short commute by either bus, train OR subway from NYC (Manhattan).
Lastly... while you can say average people in Queens make 50,000: people in those areas often make more (at their commuting jobs in NYC)... and 2 working people making 75K each... make it possible to pay the mortgage. Don't forget that taxes are much lower than equivalent areas in LI or Westchester.
If you are talking about Forest Hills gardens, that's a whole other conversation.
??????????/
Forest Hills didn't need to be gentrified. Forest Hills was middle/upper middle class hood for a LONG time. The physical neighborhood did not change, same beautiful hood. It just went along with the increase in rents across all of NYC.
No hipster came into Forest Hills and turned a ugly hood into a nice one.
Forest Hills has been nice since before the late 90s when gentrification began in the city.
I can tell you are not familiar with Forest Hills, Queens.
These are neighborhoods that have and are experiencing gentrification:
Inwood
Washington Heights
Harlem
Williamsburg
Prospect Heights
Bushwick
Astoria...and many more.
No,really think about it.What does it mean if ANY neighborhood,not just a poor one ,reaches a point where most of the people living in that neighborhood could not afford to buy into that neighborhood but others are doing so ? It means that people with much higher incomes have taken control of the real estate market in that neighborhood and are displacing the lower income people who are there.Higher can mean people with $150,000 incomes displacing people with $50,000 incomes just as well as people with $60,000 incomes displacing people with $20,000 incomes.
It's a form of gentrification. Gentrification - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Gentrification isn't limited to middle class people moving into and poor areas.If the average income in a neighborhood is $50,000 and houses in that neighborhood are selling for $700,000 it has been gentrified because the average resident could no longer afford to buy there.Gentrification can happen in almost any neighborhood whether it "needs" it or not.
The answer is actually incredibly simple. It's GENTRIFICATION.
The price of Real Estate(or rent) in any area actually has nothing to do with the incomes of the people who live in the area.It has to do with the incomes of the people moving into the area.Whenever you have a situation where people are paying much ,much more for something than the people who already live in the area it means only one thing.The people doing the buying and moving in have a lot more money than the people who are already there and it's called GENTRIFICATION no matter where it occurs.
The dynamics are no different than hipsters moving into Williamsburg or Yuppies moving into Harlem.Most of the old time residents in Harlem can't afford million dollar condos .
People don't think about it much but essentially the entire city,almost every nook and cranny has been undergoing a process of GENTRIFICATION for decades.It's not only going on in poorer parts of Harlem,Brooklyn and parts of THE Bronx.It's going on even on the Upper East Side today.How many tens of thousands of people do you think live on the Upper East Side today who could never,ever afford to live there if they hadn't bought their apartments for $50,000 back in 1980 ?
No neighborhods in the city are going to stay the same for long.They are either going to go up or go down.There was a long period from the 60's until
the 90's when almost everything went down.Nobody wanted to live in NY.That has been reversed and now it seems as though everyone wants to live in NY. They are flocking here from everywhere ! Midwesterners bored with life in Iowa,Southerners trying to escape the bible belt,empty nest suburbanites from Westchester and LI ditching their big expensive houses and yards and Europeans with pots of money. They all want to live here now and as long as that goes on there will be gentrification going on everywhere because when people get priced out of one neighborhood they just go price someone else out of a neighborhood they can afford.It's not intentional.You just do what you got to do.
There is also another, far larger force at work.
Immigration since the 1980s has exploded. Go to Corona and see the Central Americans plie 5 or 6 men into a house, each with a job of their own. Same with the Chinese in Flushing/Sunset Park, the Africans/Dominicans in the Bronx, Indians in Jackson Heights, etc.
Immigration contributes to the rent situation simply becuase if you pack a house with wage earners, then the math becomes distorted. A 1k/month rental in Sunnyside shared with five guys all pulling down basic wages becomes affordable. Just watch what happens to rents in nabes like Woodside or Astoria once the Greeks/Irish start fleeing their collapsing economies.
Immigration since the 1980s has exploded. Go to Corona and see the Central Americans plie 5 or 6 men into a house, each with a job of their own. Same with the Chinese in Flushing/Sunset Park, the Africans/Dominicans in the Bronx, Indians in Jackson Heights, etc.
Immigration contributes to the rent situation simply becuase if you pack a house with wage earners, then the math becomes distorted. A 1k/month rental in Sunnyside shared with five guys all pulling down basic wages becomes affordable. Just watch what happens to rents in nabes like Woodside or Astoria once the Greeks/Irish start fleeing their collapsing economies.
I agree that this is yet another force putting upward pressure on the housing market of the city.Both are happening at the same time.
Immigration since the 1980s has exploded. Go to Corona and see the Central Americans plie 5 or 6 men into a house, each with a job of their own. Same with the Chinese in Flushing/Sunset Park, the Africans/Dominicans in the Bronx, Indians in Jackson Heights, etc.
Immigration contributes to the rent situation simply becuase if you pack a house with wage earners, then the math becomes distorted. A 1k/month rental in Sunnyside shared with five guys all pulling down basic wages becomes affordable. Just watch what happens to rents in nabes like Woodside or Astoria once the Greeks/Irish start fleeing their collapsing economies.
I'm no economist, but I just don't see how this phenomenon affects anything at all besides perhaps making an area LESS desirable and bringing rents down. I believe the reason all the recent immigrants have been pouring into Queens and the Bronx is because prices are lower there than in Manhattan and Brooklyn.
In a place like Corona, rents were low and maybe overcrowded conditions in houses were less likely to be investigated by the city and that is what attracted immigrants with low-wage jobs. So now you have 7 people or 13 people (or whatever it is) in a house that is illegally divided and a fire trap. The house is producing way too much trash for what it is zoned for and is not well kept, with rags hanging in the windows for curtains.
And you're saying this is bringing property values and rents UP?
I know several people who have looked into buying homes in areas of Queens were this practice is rampant and there have been homes with so many illegal partitions built that are in such bad shape inside that the home would have to be gutted. Needless to say, they moved on and made their investment elsewhere.
I'm no economist, but I just don't see how this phenomenon affects anything at all besides perhaps making an area LESS desirable and bringing rents down. I believe the reason all the recent immigrants have been pouring into Queens and the Bronx is because prices are lower there than in Manhattan and Brooklyn.
True, and that's why hoods like the South Bronx, Jackson Heights, Sunset Park, et al are far higher than they should be when you consider standard factors.
Quote:
In a place like Corona, rents were low and maybe overcrowded conditions in houses were less likely to be investigated by the city and that is what attracted immigrants with low-wage jobs. So now you have 7 people or 13 people (or whatever it is) in a house that is illegally divided and a fire trap. The house is producing way too much trash for what it is zoned for and is not well kept, with rags hanging in the windows for curtains.
And you're saying this is bringing property values and rents UP?
Well, no one ever accused NYC landlords of being the most ethical bunch.
Stop and think about this: How come total holes in places like Morrisana still rent for 800/900 a month? Becuase immigrants just damn happy to be in America will pack on in while the landlord will continue to be a bum and let the building, and in turn the neighborhood, rot. The same phenominom occured in Harlem where Blacks denied housing elsewhere were taken in by oppertunistic landlords who knew they could jack prices up due to artifical scarcity. This practice spread to the Bronx where once the city put in rent control, the *** was up and many property owners simply torched the place.
Everything is based off supply and demand. Just becuase a building looks like crap doesn't mean the person who ownes it isn't making money. Heck, one could argue they make more since new arrivals are less likely than, say, hipsters, to put up with such crap and not complain. So therefore the owner saves from having to spend money on the place to keep it livable.
Quote:
I know several people who have looked into buying homes in areas of Queens were this practice is rampant and there have been homes with so many illegal partitions built that are in such bad shape inside that the home would have to be gutted. Needless to say, they moved on and made their investment elsewhere.
But imagine your some guy fresh of the boat from Mexico/Rwanda/Ukirane/etc. Sure, you may not like it, but you know you're only in NY to make some money, stash it, and move on. So they'll take it.
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I actually moved to Hoboken where I bought a condo that cost more than my FH home. The RE market here was also very hot but corrected itself a few years ago so we're almost near the 2004/2005 level. 
