Northeastern Megapolis Population Growth : Lower Hudson Valley - NYC - Long Island (New York: living)

[DarkWolf]

Reasons for the Increases are the lack of data from the current census , alot of Households were left uncounted i factored those into the numbers. That accounts for anywhere between 15-50,000 households , Jersey City reported over 20,000 uncounted households....with the recently density booms in Queens and Brooklyn and yet only 1-5,000 added it doesn't make sense. So I factored that into the 2030 population. New and Improved Transit lines are also factored into the growth. Past growth rates over a 20 year period are also factored into the 2030 Population....Most of the growth over the next 20-40 years will be downstate.

Northeastern Megapolis - Southern NY , NJ , DE , Southern NH , Coastal Maine , MA , RI , CT , Eastern PA , Eastern MD , Northern Virginia

1990 Population : 43 Million
2000 Population : 49 Million
2010 Population : 53 Million
2025 Population : 60 Million
2030 Population : 66 Million
2040 Population : 75 Million
2050 Population : 80 Million

2010 Transit Daily Usage : 20.4 Million
2020 Transit Daily Usage : 35 Million
2050 Transit Daily Usage : 50 Million

Counties by 2030 in the Northeastern Megapolis....state by state

New York - Lower Hudson Valley & NYC / Long Island

Kings County : 2.5 Million (2010) > 2.8 Million (2030)

Queens County : 2.2 Million (2010) > 2.4 Million (2030)

Manhattan County : 1.5 Million (2010) > 1.7 Million (2030)

Suffolk County : 1.4 Million (2010) > 1.6 Million (2030)

Bronx County : 1.3 Million (2010) > 1.6 Million (2030)

Nassau County : 1.3 Million (2010) > 1.5 Million (2030)

Westchester County : 949,113 (2010) > 1.2 Million (2030) Largest City : Yonkers : 195,976 (2010) > 210,000 (2030)

Richmond County : 468,730 (2010) > 595,000 (2030)

Orange County : 372,813 (2010) > 425,000 (2030)

Rockland County : 311,687 (2010) > 360,000 (2030)

Dutchess County : 297,488 (2010) > 315,000 (2030)

Ulster County : 182,493 (2010) > 202,000 (2030)

Putnam County : 99,710 (2010) > 124,000 (2030)

Sullivan County : 77,547 (2010) > 85,000 (2030)


Total Population in 2010 : 11.7 Million
Total Population in 2030 : 14.9 Million

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2040

[LINative]

The saddest thing for me is that sprawl of NYC is now moving up the Hudson Valley. For years, it seems to have been slowed down by the low lying mountains in the lower valley; the Ramapos and the Hudson Highlands. The mountains acted as sort of a greenbelt, in particular the huge Harriman State park on the Rockland-Orange County border. Long Island in contrast enjoys no such greenbelt, the result is sprawl all the way out to the Pine Barrens.

Anyway, the sprawl seems to have leapfrogged into southern Dutchess County and parts of Ulster and Orange. I actually think that the results are going to even worse in the future than your maps show. Especially if we continue to push mass commuter rail into still rural areas of Dutchess County.

[DarkWolf]

Originally Posted by LINative

The saddest thing for me is that sprawl of NYC is now moving up the Hudson Valley. For years, it seems to have been slowed down by the low lying mountains in the lower valley; the Ramapos and the Hudson Highlands. The mountains acted as sort of a greenbelt, in particular the huge Harriman State park on the Rockland-Orange County border. Long Island in contrast enjoys no such greenbelt, the result is sprawl all the way out to the Pine Barrens.

Anyway, the sprawl seems to have leapfrogged into southern Dutchess County and parts of Ulster and Orange. I actually think that the results are going to even worse in the future than your maps show. Especially if we continue to push mass commuter rail into still rural areas of Dutchess County.

Dutchess isn't pushing for Rail , only Rockland , Orange , Putnam , Westchester , and Ulster Counties are and will get theres 2 lines at a time. Hopefully the Market trend of inward growth will slow the sprawl enough to preserve some open space and farming land. Recently Tea Party groups have been trying to change some rules that protects open space and farm lands because they think its part of a UN agenda. They've already gotten there way in some parts the US which has accelerated sprawl in those regions. Hopefully this blows over in a few years so it doesn't damage this region. But regardless of these groups the region will still grow outward , and your right these maps are probably half of what will happen.....they were being conservative about the growth and so was I.

[NYisontop]

Hmm, don't quite agree with these projections, which do seem to take off for 2020 onward, at least in the Hudson Valley. I think they assume the mass development of open spaces continues as it has prior to the recession, and seems to pick up dramatically here. I think we have to re-evaluate the effects of the recession on developers and consider open space will trend at a premium in this mature corner of the country. Family sizes are feeling downward pressures and urban living is a preference for many - at some point redevelopment of parts of the urban core will be as attractive and cost-effective as developing outward. Yes the Hudson Valley will see additional rail lines but it doesn't equate to loss of greenery. Small towns can grow without sprawl.

Just a curiosity, but why isn't Saranac Lake (5 000) color-coded while smaller Pulaski, Le Roy and Liberty are?