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People are slowly moving out. If you exclude New York City, the rest of the state combined posted negative population growth again this year. Bigger absolute numbers than Detroit too.
That was said during the last decade and then they found out that some areas outside of NYC actually grew once the official census came out. So, we'll see.
People are slowly moving out. If you exclude New York City, the rest of the state combined posted negative population growth again this year. Bigger absolute numbers than Detroit too.
Between 2010 and 2013, these upstate counties saw population increases:
Albany County +.9%
Erie County +.1%
Monroe County +.7%
Onondaga County +.3%
Rensselaer County +.3%
Saratoga County +1.9%
Schnectady County +.4%
Tompkins County +2%
All of these counties except Tompkins are in the metropolitan areas of the major upstate cities. None of these counties is a suburb of NYC nor in the lower Hudson Valley, so they aren't picking up long distance NYC commuters.
What's happening in NYS is what's happening in most of the US: rural areas and small towns and cities are losing population to bigger metros. Even in "booming" states, the growing areas are primarily within commuting distances of larger metros where there are jobs while more rural areas lose population.
All of these counties except Tompkins are in the metropolitan areas of the major upstate cities. None of these counties is a suburb of NYC nor in the lower Hudson Valley, so they aren't picking up long distance NYC commuters.
What's happening in NYS is what's happening in most of the US: rural areas and small towns and cities are losing population to bigger metros. Even in "booming" states, the growing areas are primarily within commuting distances of larger metros where there are jobs while more rural areas lose population.
Those are just a handful of counties of upstate NY, and even then, they have very little growth. Here are the most recent figures from the census, with upstate cities being some of the worst performers in the nation, performing worse than even Detroit:
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY Metropolitan Statistical Area: + 207 Rochester, NY Metropolitan Statistical Area: -701 Syracuse, NY Metropolitan Statistical Area: -1,383
For reference Detroit, also in the top10 of worst performing metros in the country:
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area: + 1,217
The rural upstate counties are all in the red as well. If you exclude NYC, Long Island, Westchester, and Rockland counties, the rest of the state combined lost net 12,000 people in 1 year.
If upstate New York was its own state it would be the the worst performing state when it comes to population gains. This is despite NY state having positive natural population growth still. For NYS to be posting these numbers, upstate is losing roughly 200,000 people per year in domestic migration.
Those are just a handful of counties of upstate NY, and even then, they have very little growth. Here are the most recent figures from the census, with upstate cities being some of the worst performers in the nation, performing worse than even Detroit:
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY Metropolitan Statistical Area: + 207 Rochester, NY Metropolitan Statistical Area: -701 Syracuse, NY Metropolitan Statistical Area: -1,383
For reference Detroit, also in the top10 of worst performing metros in the country:
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area: + 1,217
The rural upstate counties are all in the red as well. If you exclude NYC, Long Island, Westchester, and Rockland counties, the rest of the state combined lost net 12,000 people in 1 year.
If upstate New York was its own state it would be the the worst performing state when it comes to population gains. This is despite NY state having positive natural population growth still. For NYS to be posting these numbers, upstate is losing roughly 200,000 people per year in domestic migration.
Upstate New York is predominantly is the same kind of place like PA outside of Philadelphia, Ohio, Michigan, most of Illinois outside of Chicago, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, etc: mostly medium and small metros with a handful of top 100 metros (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Detroit) surrounded by rural areas. Whatever growth that happens in any of these states happens in and around the cities while the rural areas continue to lose population.
The pattern is similar but not quite the same in most of the southeast. The coastal areas are growing, especially along the Atlantic Coast and in Florida and in Texas, but get into the interior, and you see the same pattern as further north: a few big urban metros like Atlanta and Nashville getting bigger, some medium/small metros like Louisville and Chattanooga holding their own, and a lot of rural areas losing population.
Upstate New York is predominantly is the same kind of place like PA outside of Philadelphia, Ohio, Michigan, most of Illinois outside of Chicago, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, etc: mostly medium and small metros with a handful of top 100 metros (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Detroit) surrounded by rural areas. Whatever growth that happens in any of these states happens in and around the cities while the rural areas continue to lose population.
The pattern is similar but not quite the same in most of the southeast. The coastal areas are growing, especially along the Atlantic Coast and in Florida and in Texas, but get into the interior, and you see the same pattern as further north: a few big urban metros like Atlanta and Nashville getting bigger, some medium/small metros like Louisville and Chattanooga holding their own, and a lot of rural areas losing population.
This seems to be the case and even the Buffalo, Rochester and Albany metros have positive population growth since 2010. Same for the Ithaca and Watertown areas. With this said and as mentioned before, the same things were said last decade in regard to estimates and once the official census came out, the numbers were different. So, we'll see.
This seems to be the case and even the Buffalo, Rochester and Albany metros have positive population growth since 2010. Same for the Ithaca and Watertown areas. With this said and as mentioned before, the same things were said last decade in regard to estimates and once the official census came out, the numbers were different. So, we'll see.
Again, the numbers being posted, while increases, are desperately small. Upstate is a big region with millions of people, with natural growth in the hundreds of thousands. For these metros and counties to be posting these numbers it means that people are not staying put, they are moving out in droves. If people were not moving out in their thousands, places like Buffalo, Albany, and Rochester should be growing at like 20,000-40,000 people per year even with net 0 domestic migration. The fact that all of upstate is either losing population or static with very low net gains means that thousands of people are moving out of the region each month.
I don't know why you keep referencing 2010 census. 2010 census had NYS total population at 19,378,000, an increase of only ~400k people since 2000. That number is only possible if people were moving out of New York State at a crazy rate, on the order of 100,000 people per year.
Again, the numbers being posted, while increases, are desperately small. Upstate is a big region with millions of people, with natural growth in the hundreds of thousands. For these metros and counties to be posting these numbers it means that people are not staying put, they are moving out in droves. If people were not moving out in their thousands, places like Buffalo should be growing at like 20,000-40,000 people per year even with net 0 domestic migration. The fact that all of upstate is either losing population or static with very low net gains means that thousands of people are moving out of the region each month.
I don't know why you keep referencing 2010 census. 2010 census had NYS total population at 19,378,000, an increase of only ~400k people since 2000. That number is only possible if people were moving out of New York State at a crazy rate, on the order of 100,000 people per year.
Not all of Upstate is losing population and the database I posted stated that. While some parts are losing population some are stagnant or have had small gains.
I referenced 2010 in terms of total population growth since that year in select areas. That is in that database as well.
Not all of Upstate is losing population and the database I posted stated that. While some parts are losing population some are stagnant or have had small gains.
The areas with small population gains are also losing people in their thousands. Those areas have TFRs of 1.6-1.8, while its below replacement level in the long run, that natural growth rate is enough to cover it up and not post net losses on the census.
Quote:
I referenced 2010 in terms of total population growth since that year in select areas. That is in that database as well.
Again, the debate was whether or not people are moving out of the state. The argument of "oh look NYS has population growth, people are staying put!" does not work, because the only way you can even get such small population gains in those "select areas" is for the people to be moving out of the state at a rate of tens of thousands of people per year.
If people "were staying put", and even if nobody was moving into the state, the state should be growing at a rate of 200,000 people per year (2 million people per census) just from natural inertia. The fact that the growth numbers are nowhere close to that means people are moving out in droves, even in areas that post modest population gains on the census. The 2010 census numbers showed that between 2000-2010, in just 10 years, New York state lost the amount of people equivalent to the whole Buffalo metro area. The new estimates are showing that this is not slowing down, and between 2010 census and these new estimates (4 years) the people-equivalent of Syracuse city has moved out already.
People just like to ***** and complain and life sucks for many people. Things won't magically get better because you move to the South and most likely if you are poor in NY you are poor in the South.
In away NY is dumping it's social service costs on states like Florida by sending them lots of poor retirees whose only income is social security. Except just social security isn't a lot of money in the South either and you won't live well on it. Enjoy the nursing home or some other governmental facility.
The areas with small population gains are also losing people in their thousands. Those areas have TFRs of 1.6-1.8, while its below replacement level in the long run, that natural growth rate is enough to cover it up and not post net losses on the census.
Again, the debate was whether or not people are moving out of the state. The argument of "oh look NYS has population growth, people are staying put!" does not work, because the only way you can even get such small population gains in those "select areas" is for the people to be moving out of the state at a rate of tens of thousands of people per year.
If people "were staying put", and even if nobody was moving into the state, the state should be growing at a rate of 200,000 people per year (2 million people per census) just from natural inertia. The fact that the growth numbers are nowhere close to that means people are moving out in droves, even in areas that post modest population gains on the census. The 2010 census numbers showed that between 2000-2010, in just 10 years, New York state lost the amount of people equivalent to the whole Buffalo metro area. The new estimates are showing that this is not slowing down, and between 2010 census and these new estimates (4 years) the people-equivalent of Syracuse city has moved out already.
Even if people leave, in order to get positive growth, people have to be moving into these areas/counties, etc seeing population growth, regardless of how much growth.
Like I said before, the same projections were given during the last decade and you had a range in terms of areas of Upstate seeing population growth or decline once the official numbers came out. That is all I am saying.
Also like Linda said, many states, even if they are seeing higher growth rates, are seeing slow growth or decline in more rural/small town counties. So, this isn't exclusive to just NY State. Sun Belt booming again; rural areas still losing people
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