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Old 12-14-2007, 01:01 PM
 
944 posts, read 3,859,835 times
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I thought I would start a thread where we could have an ongoing discussion of the convergence of all of these issues. Many other threads have devolved from the original topic to debates about these issues. I'll get it started with some random thoughts:

- I think a lot of people have found that the NYS exodus zones (Florida and Arizona, for example) are not pleasant.

- NYS has a physical and geographical advantage in that tradelines, agriculture, and development mostly occurred prior to the advent of the automobile.

- I think the U.S. will tire of crappy, poisonous Chinese junk and *hopefully* reintroduce some manufacturing back unto the U.S.

- I will be very upset if there is a mass exodus from bubbly areas (namely CA and FL) into Western NY, I say this because I view it as a likely event.

- NYS is water-rich and accessible through many ports of entry. This will be a huge advantage in the future, in my opinion.

- I think boomers will stay put despite the weather. Healthcare will be a major component of this choice (anyone that's sat in an ER in Flooreeduh knows what the frick I'm talkin' about).

- The resistance to globalization will be strong throughout NYS where there are already efforts to inhibit WalMart in some communities. Most New Yorkers know or remember localized shops and restaurants and understand the benefits economically, socially and psychologically to "keeping it local."
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Old 12-14-2007, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Buffalo, NY
253 posts, read 1,278,558 times
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A lot of these reasons are a lot of the reason I decided in just staying around Buffalo. We are already used to a decline in the economy and I think a lot of the US isnt and its going to be a larger shock when we eventually go in large recession.

And as for just the very long term, I just don't see the current way we do everything working out. Cramming lots of our population into really illogical environments (i.e the desert southwest). Importing absolutely everything we use from halfway around the globe while we do meaningless service sector work.

In a world where energy will continue to get more and more expensive, we might have to once again look to transporting things by rail and over water and thats the way the whole Great Lakes/Rust Belt region is already set up. Even if its in disrepair , at least its largely still there and can be restored/expanded upon.

Edit:
Also the Great Lakes represents 25% of the entire planet's fresh water.
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Old 12-14-2007, 02:06 PM
 
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Default Headed upstate

We chose to head upstate rather than south when we retire. We prefer the cold and snow to the heat, humidity and palmetto bugs. From a financial standpoint, upstate NY suits are needs. We love the friendly and helpful people, uncrowded shopping, reasonable housing costs, many activities and beautiful countryside. Many of our friends are retiring north versus the south too. Besides who wants to fight to get to early bird specials?
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Old 12-14-2007, 04:20 PM
 
Location: NY
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I think there is far too much uncertainty as far as climate change, potential major weather events, the peak oil timeline, etc. to definitively say upstate NY will be a good place to be, but that said, I'm banking on it. Most of the state is a poor place for mega-factory-farm monocropping, but it isn't bad for small-scale, diverse, intensive agriculture. Nearly all of the state is in what Jane Jacobs would call New York City's 'city region,' which is good if there is a move away from globalism and back to some kind of localism or regionalism. Wood and water are two renewable resources that, managed properly, the state could have a present and future abundance in (though there ought to be a major movement toward diverse hardwood reforestation). The manufacturing only makes sense if the raw material resources are also from the region.... again, wood looks ideal for that. The 'localism' push is crucial, and not just 'made in the USA'- the trick will be getting the residents of NY to want 'made in NY' and develop a regional market before looking at distant markets. Its going to be an interesting time in the next few decades....
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Old 12-14-2007, 04:55 PM
 
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by honeychrome View Post
I think there is far too much uncertainty as far as climate change, potential major weather events, the peak oil timeline,
The climate change stuff I dont think is it at all uncertain, but I would agree the timeframe for it might be... peak oil maybe not. There are already some reports suggesting that we may already be on a plateau or past a peak as of 2005.. its starting to look that way. There was just a report they are thinking of some way of getting more oil out of old wells -- http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5372417.html (broken link)

Not only will this type of thing probably not be a usable technology right away it kind of ignores the large underlying problem of exponential growth against a finite resource. We've based our economy on steady growth of energy (the entire world has, actually)..and anything that isn't this steady (exponential) growth is going to be a major problem. I just don't see how thats ever gonna be sustainable.

edit:
But aside form all this stuff.. there all kinds of reasons to be more locally focused. I think thats good for everyone. Id love to see more regional economies appear again. I mean we are a little bit here, with lots Canadians coming across to buy stuff. But I would love to see more variety in business and would rather put my money into a local economy than have my money go to some city far off (if not out of the country) when we got problems right here

Last edited by aka_mouse; 12-14-2007 at 04:57 PM.. Reason: addition
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Old 12-14-2007, 08:33 PM
 
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Muggy, the only thing I don't agree with you on is a large inclux of FL and CA residents into wny. I agree that that is NOT what we want to happen, but I'm not worried about it. Most of the people who live there are scared to death of temps below 60 degrees and weather that isn't the same sunny and "un-northeastern" 365 days a year.
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Old 12-15-2007, 05:09 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I'minformed2 View Post
Muggy, the only thing I don't agree with you on is a large inclux of FL and CA residents into wny. I agree that that is NOT what we want to happen, but I'm not worried about it. Most of the people who live there are scared to death of temps below 60 degrees and weather that isn't the same sunny and "un-northeastern" 365 days a year.
I would have agreed with you two years ago, but something is happening in Florida and I think it's amazing to witness (since you're into planning to some degree maybe you know this is called). It's a "begetting" whereby the peoples' beliefs are totally misaligned to reality, something then causes the two to connect, and bam! the perception changes overnight. For example, Florida has always been hot, crimey, and sprawled, but, when home prices were increasing and people felt that Florida was a paying them it was "paradise." Now that the economy is faltering, Florida is too hot, crimey and sprawled. People somehow connect the dots, but for all of the wrong reasons. I understand the flight or fight instinct, it's just crazy to see what activates it in other people.

I am in a unique position to view direct outmigration due to my position at work. Seriously, the sheer number of people with plans to leave Florida is astounding. The number of people that have already left is also high. Our economy is so volatile, transient and "on-time" that we've become this weird swarm that overwhelms every opportunity (like Bentonville, AK).

I simply see Western New York as one of the new "Promised Lands," if for no other reason than cheap housing. Millions of people have already proved they are willing to swarm to awful environments just for a shot at the "American Dream." I don't think snow is enough of a deterrent, especially those from areas with crushing traffic. Everyone that visits Rochester is always blown away by how fast they can get around. For sure snow/temps are minuses (-) in WNY, but there are many pluses (+) as well. I think people view their lives as a "sum," and will migrate toward areas swinging towards good. For Florida, there is currently only one way to go, likewise for Western New York.

I wasn't so sure myself, but when I saw the story about illegals working on the Cheesecake Factory in Pittsford Plaza, I couldn't believe it.

By the way, I have no agenda other than the prevention of the locusting of WNY; it's something I think about often.

Last edited by Muggy; 12-15-2007 at 05:17 AM..
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Old 12-17-2007, 06:46 AM
 
Location: NY
417 posts, read 1,897,762 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aka_mouse View Post
The climate change stuff I dont think is it at all uncertain, but I would agree the timeframe for it might be...
I wasn't implying that the reality of climate change was uncertain, but rather that how exactly it will affect different regions is uncertain. For example, while the global climate in average is warming, there are regions that will in fact see average temperatures decline. The inherent uncertainty in global climate change is what makes it such a dangerous issue- agriculture is entirely dependent on climate predictability. If a farmer can't count on the weather to behave within a fairly narrow range over time he/she can't know what and when to plant, when to harvest, etc. I fear that for the vast majority of our population the experience of food has been so decoupled from nature (it all comes in boxes at the store!) they can't see any connection between climate and what is on the dinner plate, and climate change is seen as a likely inconvenience rather than an issue of potential starvation.
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