Trump: "I can win New York." (Buffalo, Rochester: credit, go bankrupt)
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No. He could possibly win the primary though, especially if there continue to be multiple candidates appealing to the more moderate portion of Republican voters and splitting the vote on that basis.
No. He could possibly win the primary though, especially if there continue to be multiple candidates appealing to the more moderate portion of Republican voters and splitting the vote on that basis.
Well, now we all know how Trump managed to go bankrupt in the casino industry: math ain't his strong suit. The population of all of New York State outside of the NYC metro is only 40% of the state's total population. Winning Downstate is the real key to winning the entire state. Moreover, the Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany metros have about 35% of the Upstate population, and they are heavily Democratic. Polls show that Trump might get 20% cross over from the Dems but he's going to lose at least that percentage from the many Republicans and Independents who won't vote for him because he's a buffoon.
I think that Trump will probably win the Republican primary because I don't think that Cruz is going to do well in New York; most NY Republican voters -- and most local Republican pols -- aren't nearly the wingnuts Cruz appeals to. I don't know if Rubio will still be in the race by the time the NY primary rolls around. If he is, he might pull off an upset because many NY Republicans won't vote for Trump or Cruz ... if they vote at all.
I think absolutely he will win the primary and I would say even the presidency if he's running against Hillary. Remember those 200,000 jobs she promised to upstate? In fact she USED us as a stepping stone to get to the presidential race and helped create zero jobs. Trump has created thousands of jobs for people from all walks of life, as well as business opportunities for many others. Compare his accomplishments to anyone else in the race.
I think absolutely he will win the primary and I would say even the presidency if he's running against Hillary. Remember those 200,000 jobs she promised to upstate? In fact she USED us as a stepping stone to get to the presidential race and helped create zero jobs. Trump has created thousands of jobs for people from all walks of life, as well as business opportunities for many others. Compare his accomplishments to anyone else in the race.
It is not the conventional wisdom around here but I think Trump can beat Clinton too.
A lot depends on how Trump behaves in the general election. I think he is actually a lot smarter then people give him credit for right now.
Another unknown is how bad it gets for Clinton with the email scandal. And finally where will Independents like myself go if Bernie Sanders looses to what looks like a rigged system to elect another corporate establishment politician like Clinton (such as this super delegate bs). More then a few will go to Trump.
As for New York, it is rare but Republicans can win the state if they find the right candidate. Reagan, Eisenhower, Teddy Roosevelt and Lincoln all won New York twice in a row. But to win New York the Republicans need a reformer/outsider like Reagan or a Teddy, not another lackluster second-rate establishment candidate like a Bush or Romney that they usually put up.
It is not the conventional wisdom around here but I think Trump can beat Clinton too.
A lot depends on how Trump behaves in the general election. I think he is actually a lot smarter then people give him credit for right now.
Another unknown is how bad it gets for Clinton with the email scandal. And finally where will Independents like myself go if Bernie Sanders looses to what looks like a rigged system to elect another corporate establishment politician like Clinton (such as this super delegate bs). More then a few will go to Trump.
As for New York, it is rare but Republicans can win the state if they find the right candidate. Reagan, Eisenhower, Teddy Roosevelt and Lincoln all won New York twice in a row. But to win New York the Republicans need a reformer/outsider like Reagan or a Teddy, not another lackluster second-rate establishment candidate like a Bush or Romney that they usually put up.
How is Trump fundamentally different from Carl Paladino? Two rich, narcissistic buffoons who think insults and threats win elections. Paladino got his butt whipped by Cuomo. Trump will get his butt whipped by whomever the Dems nominate, most likely Hillary.
As for New York, it is rare but Republicans can win the state if they find the right candidate. Reagan, Eisenhower, Teddy Roosevelt and Lincoln all won New York twice in a row. But to win New York the Republicans need a reformer/outsider like Reagan or a Teddy, not another lackluster second-rate establishment candidate like a Bush or Romney that they usually put up.
Teddy Roosevelt only won NY State once, in 1904. (But he did defeat another York Stater running as Democrat.)
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