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Wherever commuters into the city live/reside. Beyond that is Upstate.
I consider the "NYC area" and the boundaries between Upstate and Downstate to be two different, and fairly widely separated, lines.
Basically, I consider the NYC area to be defined by contiguous development and sprawl, not merely access to commuter transportation networks, thus NYC and its immediate suburbs, basically an area extending through Westchester county. At the very least the parks of the Middle Hudson: Harriman, Bear, Hudson Highlands, and Fahnstock interrupt the conurbation extending from NYC's formal borders.
Exurban areas and small cities of Downstate, but outside the above defined "NYC Area" would include the Hudson Valley at least as far north as Kingston and Rhinebeck and extending from the Connecticut border in an arc extending across the Shawangunks and southern Catskills to Monticello and Port Jervis.
I wouldn't be so bold as to create a precise line, but as a rule of thumb, you are downstate if you can make a day trip of reasonable to NYC without having to get a hotel.
To reckon it another way, I would say the boundary between upstate and downstate runs somewhere between Delaware, Greene, and Colombia counties while Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess are firmly Downstate.
People who think Upstate begins where the metro area (commuting area) ends are usually either city people or people in the Mid-Hudson who hate NYC. People who live in the outer Downstate area who hate New York City like to deny being anything other than Upstate, but hatred is a poor litmus for geographical boundaries. I prefer physical/topographical features and cultural/population trends.
2 years ago, my wife's friend in Roslyn moved to Putnam because it became too expensive here. Pre-Covid, I use to joke to my wife to spend less money, otherwise "we'll end up in Putnam".
Dutchess, Ulster, Orange, and Sullivan are the outer downstate counties. Past those County lines, you’re upstate. For so many reasons. That’s not to say that the NYC “sphere of influence” doesn’t into Delaware and Greene and Columbia, for sure, but those areas have historically had much closer ties to cities like Albany and Binghamton than NYC.
Very simple. If your county does not border NJ or CT, you are upstate.
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