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Old 10-03-2022, 05:47 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Joe461 View Post
And therein lies the rub.

My last two cars were purchased out-of-state. Considering the sleaze level of dealers on Long Island, I would never buy a car in NYS again (ICE or otherwise).

All my trailers are purchased out-of-state and titled in Maine. This avoids NYS sales tax on the purchase and provides for a much-reduced registration cost. Setting up title/registration of a trailer in Maine without the need to have property there is perfectly legal.

Car dealers in neighboring states will be quick to cash in on these mandates. NJ's government is dumb enough to follow suit, but the car dealer network may have enough political clout to stop it. If not, expect dealers in other states to figure out something. Even if it is something like a "Carvana" solution.

There are likely to be some smart states out there who will find a way to capitalize on this. If there is a way to do for cars what Maine does for trailers, it would be a windfall for that state.
Most likely the state just won’t allow any new registrations of ice vehicles. Whatever 2035 is when my yinhest grads HS and we will move to FL or TN where I will be able to burn gas.
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:34 AM
 
Location: Upstate NY/NJ
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Originally Posted by gx89 View Post
Most likely the state just won’t allow any new registrations of ice vehicles. Whatever 2035 is when my yinhest grads HS and we will move to FL or TN where I will be able to burn gas.
I think it will depend on where we are as a country with the percentage of electric cars making up the total numbers sold.

I think today we are only at 2-3%. So if its 2035, and they're only selling 10% electric cars, NYS will not be able to implement it, and if they try, they will be sued in court and will definitely lose.

However, if 90% of cars are electric by 2035, they might get away with it.

Its simple math though. You can't currently (and foreseeably) get the energy density from batteries without enormous weight, than a gallon of gas has, per mass. The laws of physics will win in the end. Our politicians, who know about as much about physics as an earthworm, will continue to push their ignorant agenda.
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Old 10-04-2022, 12:18 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VintageSunlight View Post

Its simple math though. You can't currently (and foreseeably) get the energy density from batteries without enormous weight, than a gallon of gas has, per mass. The laws of physics will win in the end. Our politicians, who know about as much about physics as an earthworm, will continue to push their ignorant agenda.
Yes, but what is their agenda? From what i can muster so far is, because it won't work, we will all be forced to live in the cities again where it is much easier to control us.
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Old 10-04-2022, 12:19 PM
 
Location: In the heights
37,307 posts, read 39,639,211 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VintageSunlight View Post
I think it will depend on where we are as a country with the percentage of electric cars making up the total numbers sold.

I think today we are only at 2-3%. So if its 2035, and they're only selling 10% electric cars, NYS will not be able to implement it, and if they try, they will be sued in court and will definitely lose.

However, if 90% of cars are electric by 2035, they might get away with it.

Its simple math though. You can't currently (and foreseeably) get the energy density from batteries without enormous weight, than a gallon of gas has, per mass. The laws of physics will win in the end. Our politicians, who know about as much about physics as an earthworm, will continue to push their ignorant agenda.
EVs were 5.6% of US new vehicle market share in Q2 of this year. Q3 data should be out within the next couple of weeks. Sales in the US are uneven with ZEV states (basically west coast, Colorado, and northeastern states) having higher proportions. Note that's for straight BEV. Under this mandate, PHEVs and fuel cell vehicles and possibly more would also be allowable. That being said, PHEVs have generally not sold very well in the US and fuel cells even worse. Fuel cells are for various reasons a very hard sell and not a very reasonable choice, so I don't expect those to really make much of an impact on the light-duty vehicle market. What is important to note though is that every single market that has hit above 5% EV new vehicle market share thus far has then gone on to a S-curve of rapid adoption rates.

It is pretty simple math. For the last several decades, gravimetric energy density of mass produced secondary cells effectively double every 9 to 14 years. We're currently already at the point where premium segments have electric vehicles that are price competitive and in the same weight band as ICE competitors and generally destroy them when it comes to performance. Of course, battery cells aren't the only thing shedding weight in an EV--the motors are also doing so and one of the trade-offs of an EV powertrain is the far greater power density that electric motors have over internal combustion engines so what's gained in battery weight in comparison to its liquid fuel analogues is to some degree offset by motors being lighter than engines, not needing an exhaust system nor a complex transmission. What's more, batteries can be placed low and shifted around, so that battery weight is often placed so that the center of gravity is low and the front/rear weight distribution is even which are both generally great for handling.

You also obviously do not need secondary cells to have the energy density of gasoline because the powertrain is much more efficient since internal combustion engines effectively only use 15-25% of the fuel energy (obviously not including the oxygen you get for "free") into doing useful work. Your politicians might be ignorant, but so is much of the base which is why confidently made but erroneous statements are made by posters here pretty goshdarn often.

Last edited by OyCrumbler; 10-04-2022 at 01:09 PM..
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Old 10-04-2022, 12:21 PM
 
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Originally Posted by gx89 View Post
Most likely the state just won’t allow any new registrations of ice vehicles. Whatever 2035 is when my yinhest grads HS and we will move to FL or TN where I will be able to burn gas.
That brings to mind a question. If states like NY and California go all electric, eventually there would be fewer gas stations. What about out of staters visiting . Where would they buy gas? Would they even be allowed to drive on our roads? I'm sure, at that point, the state would be very happy gouging the customer
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Old 10-04-2022, 12:28 PM
 
Location: In the heights
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Originally Posted by JWRocks View Post
Yes, but what is their agenda? From what i can muster so far is, because it won't work, we will all be forced to live in the cities again where it is much easier to control us.
The agenda is whatever you want. You already assume there's some united conspiratorial force here, so you should live with it and start building a bunker of freedom and recycling your own food.
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Old 10-04-2022, 12:35 PM
 
Location: In the heights
37,307 posts, read 39,639,211 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWRocks View Post
That brings to mind a question. If states like NY and California go all electric, eventually there would be fewer gas stations. What about out of staters visiting . Where would they buy gas? Would they even be allowed to drive on our roads? I'm sure, at that point, the state would be very happy gouging the customer
Well, it's still a long ways away, because as noted before, this is for new vehicle purchases and the US fleet's median age is over twelve years and counting. That being said, it will probably eventually in a couple of decades start seeing a large changeover where gas stations won't be so profitable and therefore won't be as ubiquitous which then puts things into a bit of a cycle. That's essentially what happened with horses as the troughs and feed (or open grazing) became more and more limited and less and less dependably there as people moved more and more to electric and then petroleum automobiles. A nice thing about that though is that since charging can be integrated into parking including basement / multilevel parking, then that means some urban gas stations can yield better, more productive land use.

Anyhow, that's fine as long as there's a place to charge, because then a lot of that profit would actually likely go through more of NYS's economy. Remember, New York State essentially is not and cannot be an effective petroleum producer even if it wanted to. Most of your gas station money goes out of the state so those out of staters are throwing most of their money out of state at those stations. We do however have the potential to generate a lot of electricity in-state and which can be sold to out of towners when they charge up. Not only that, but we have major battery research in Binghamton, fast charger production in Western NY, and other industries we can potentially take part in. What we aren't though is a major petroleum producer or internal combustion engine manufacturer, so on net this can be an economic boon for the state, especially upstate.

Last edited by OyCrumbler; 10-04-2022 at 01:02 PM..
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Old 10-04-2022, 03:10 PM
 
Location: Upstate NY/NJ
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Originally Posted by JWRocks View Post
Yes, but what is their agenda? From what i can muster so far is, because it won't work, we will all be forced to live in the cities again where it is much easier to control us.
Without a doubt. Restricting / controlling freedom is the main goal. I think it gets even more sinister than that, but I'll refrain from posting my thoughts here.
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Old 10-04-2022, 07:28 PM
 
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^ The thing to consider is that higher gas prices can do the same thing in making people move back or closer to cities, similar to what occurred around 2008 and the recession when that became a thing. So, even if you take this electric car aspect off the table, gas prices can and played a part in people considering moving into or closer to cities. Keep in mind that in NY State, city land areas are small. So, living in a first or even second ring suburbs in many cases would be like living within the city in much of the South and some select other cities in other regions.

I also think it the purpose is to offer another option besides gas, given how prices have skewed higher multiple times within the past 15 years. So, it may actually offer more choice in terms of the type of vehicle one can drive. Especially given how far out and gradual a complete change would have to be.

Anyway, this earlier post offers an explanation and even pros/cons of the transition: https://www.city-data.com/forum/64224590-post6.html

Last edited by ckhthankgod; 10-04-2022 at 07:38 PM..
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Old 10-05-2022, 07:48 AM
 
5,769 posts, read 4,148,174 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
^ The thing to consider is that higher gas prices can do the same thing in making people move back or closer to cities, similar to what occurred around 2008 and the recession when that became a thing. So, even if you take this electric car aspect off the table, gas prices can and played a part in people considering moving into or closer to cities. Keep in mind that in NY State, city land areas are small. So, living in a first or even second ring suburbs in many cases would be like living within the city in much of the South and some select other cities in other regions.

I also think it the purpose is to offer another option besides gas, given how prices have skewed higher multiple times within the past 15 years. So, it may actually offer more choice in terms of the type of vehicle one can drive. Especially given how far out and gradual a complete change would have to be.

Anyway, this earlier post offers an explanation and even pros/cons of the transition: https://www.city-data.com/forum/64224590-post6.html
What option? You MUST buy electric isn't an option. Biden told us higher gas prices were intended to persuade people to go electric. So they are artificially high.
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