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Looking at other numbers, trends and growth rates:
It looks as though both Georgia and North Carolina (in that order) will overtake Michigan as the 8th and 9th largest states by population within 4-6 years, and by 2010 both will be very close (as in 400,000-500,000 people) to overtaking Ohio, currently #7.
This assumes that present growth trends sustain over a decade: growth of about 1.45 million per decade in both North Carolina and Georgia, a continued slow decline in Michigan (as battered as Michigan's economy is, I would still be very surprised to see ten continual years of slow population loss), alongside Ohio's growth rates over the last 20 years of around 300,000 per decade.
#6 - Pennsylvania's growth rate was around 600,000 over the last decade; Georgia and North Carolina would (by 2020) only slightly over 1,000,000 away from overtaking them as well.
Those are some interesting stats. Seeing as how GA estimates were overstated and its only slightly ahead of NC in terms of growth, I see NC overtaking GA by 2020 and MI as well. Ohio is a different story. I also don't see NC adding too much more than 1 million by 2020 but you never know.
Wake would be a county of 720,000 if it were the same size as Meck (basically Wake would lose 180,000 people if it lost 306 sq/mi of land). At 526 sq/mi and a population of 720,000, that's smaller than Charlotte's 300 sq/mi population of 735,000 isn't it? In fact, Wake was a county of 832 sq/mi with a population of 625,000 back in 2000. Charlotte was 242 sq/mi with a population of 540,000 back in 2000. 11 years ago, Wake had nearly 600 more sq/miles than Charlotte and only 85,000 extra people to show for it!!!???
Thanks for clarifying that Wake County is less than 10 years behind Mecklenburg in Population. In 2000, Mecklenburg was under 700K.
Raleigh will never be developed in the model of Charlotte. For me, that's long been understood and settled.
Raleigh will certainly benchmark cities for its future but Charlotte isn't the only one it studies. Frankly, I don't think Charlotte is the model for Raleigh's future. There are simply too many dissimilarities.
I have come to realize that I am having a different conversation than those from Charlotte are having. So, I agree, let's just drop it. It's not worth it.
I think a city's real-feel size should be determined by its Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) population, not just its corporate city limits population. On this measure, Charlotte current MSA (6 counties) had about 1,162,000 people in 2000, whereas Raleigh's current three-county MSA currently has about 1,128,000 people. Charlotte's MSA has about 1,758,000 people. Of course, many argue that Durham's MSA (504,357) should not be separated from Raleigh's MSA, but the U.S. Census disagrees. As such, Raleigh is about 20 years behind CLT with respect to the size of its MSA.
I think a city's real-feel size should be determined by its Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) population, not just its corporate city limits population. On this measure, Charlotte current MSA (6 counties) had about 1,162,000 people in 2000, whereas Raleigh's current three-county MSA currently has about 1,128,000 people. Charlotte's MSA has about 1,758,000 people. Of course, many argue that Durham's MSA (504,357) should not be separated from Raleigh's MSA, but the U.S. Census disagrees. As such, Raleigh is about 20 years behind CLT with respect to the size of its MSA.
Raleigh's MSA is a joke especially considering the fact Wake county accounts for over 90% of the metro. What are we supposed to pretend Durham and Chapel Hill don't exist? This area is almost 2 million people, irregardless of what the Census Bureau says.
Of the cities between 100,000 and 200,000, I don't foresee any of them hitting 200,000. Cary would be a long shot, Wilmington and High Point not at all.
Of the cities between 50,000 and 100,000, Greenville, Asheville and Concord are all within striking distance of 100,000 by 2020, present growth rates sustained. Greenville is almost certain to hit it, the other two it will be a close call, though if they don't cross the line, they will be within just a few thousand people.
Burlington, Wilson and Huntersville should easily surpass 50,000 by 2020, and probably within the next year or two. Apex possibly as well.
Goldsboro was the largest city in NC to experience a population decline. Nearby Kinston (21,677) is entering its' 4th decade of population declines, which may be a unique event among large-to-midsized NC cities. Keep in mind, at the 1980 census, Goldsboro, Greenville, Kinston, Rocky Mount, and Wilson were very, very close to the same size.
Just my thoughts about the east. I believe Wilmington and the surrounding areas will continue with tremendous growth. But they need some "new" industry to help out. "Beach bums" and retirees aren't gonna pay the bills.
Greenville will continue to grow at a fast past. All of their growth comes from ECU and PCMH. I don't see either place slowing down anytime soon. They should hit 100k soon enough.
Jacksonville is growing due to the Marines. It is the largest concentration of Marines on the east coast. Between that and the beach, I believe it will continue to grow.
Now with Rocky Mount, Wilson and Goldsboro. I think they will level out if not dip in population. Wilson may be the exception. I was surprised to see RM that high.
Lastly, New Bern will continue to pull in the retirees. I am not sure which town will hit the 25k barrier, but it most likely will be a coastal city.
Just my thoughts about the east. I believe Wilmington and the surrounding areas will continue with tremendous growth. But they need some "new" industry to help out. "Beach bums" and retirees aren't gonna pay the bills.
Greenville will continue to grow at a fast past. All of their growth comes from ECU and PCMH. I don't see either place slowing down anytime soon. They should hit 100k soon enough.
Jacksonville is growing due to the Marines. It is the largest concentration of Marines on the east coast. Between that and the beach, I believe it will continue to grow.
Now with Rocky Mount, Wilson and Goldsboro. I think they will level out if not dip in population. Wilson may be the exception. I was surprised to see RM that high.
Lastly, New Bern will continue to pull in the retirees. I am not sure which town will hit the 25k barrier, but it most likely will be a coastal city.
I appreciate your thoughts about the East. I often wonder if Greenville and Jacksonville will grow into each other. On, paper Greenville seems to be something of a beast over there along Wilmington. I would say out side of the Piedmont, Wilmington is one of the most densest cities in NC. A quick question, the Sandhills region of NC (Raeford, Laurinburg, Lumberton, and Fayetteville et al) are the Piedmont or Coastal plains?
Thanks for clarifying that Wake County is less than 10 years behind Mecklenburg in Population. In 2000, Mecklenburg was under 700K.
Raleigh will never be developed in the model of Charlotte. For me, that's long been understood and settled.
Raleigh will certainly benchmark cities for its future but Charlotte isn't the only one it studies. Frankly, I don't think Charlotte is the model for Raleigh's future. There are simply too many dissimilarities.
I have come to realize that I am having a different conversation than those from Charlotte are having. So, I agree, let's just drop it. It's not worth it.
I don't think Charlotte and Raleigh should look to each other for growth either. Except for Charlotte looking to Raleigh for how to develop higher ed institutions and RTPesque like research parks. Raleigh should look to Charlotte for DT development. And I think they both do. However Raleigh-Durham is multinodal (IMO bi-nodal) and Charlotte is the chief city with satellite cities. As I have said before the Triangle is DFW and Charlotte is Houston. Ironically, I think there metro economies boost each other.
Just my thoughts about the east. I believe Wilmington and the surrounding areas will continue with tremendous growth. But they need some "new" industry to help out. "Beach bums" and retirees aren't gonna pay the bills.
Greenville will continue to grow at a fast past. All of their growth comes from ECU and PCMH. I don't see either place slowing down anytime soon. They should hit 100k soon enough.
Jacksonville is growing due to the Marines. It is the largest concentration of Marines on the east coast. Between that and the beach, I believe it will continue to grow.
Now with Rocky Mount, Wilson and Goldsboro. I think they will level out if not dip in population. Wilson may be the exception. I was surprised to see RM that high.
Lastly, New Bern will continue to pull in the retirees. I am not sure which town will hit the 25k barrier, but it most likely will be a coastal city.
Whatever happened with Global TransPark in Kinston?
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