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If I were going to invest in Smithfield, it would have to be a really long term hold. Johnston County is growing but the western side of the county is feeling the love a lot more than in Smithfield. Essentially, Clayton is sucking the life out of Smithfield.
Smithfield actually lost population in the 2010 Census. It's the only Triangle CSA municipality over 10,000 that did so.
What do you call long term? I think anyone investing in Smithfield will see property values rise in the next ten years. Clayton is feeling up fast and growth will continue toward Smithfield down the 70 corridor. I think the main thing hindering is good public transport. If NC invested in commuter rail starting in Goldsboro going in to the Triangle, that would make the population and property values boom through Wayne and the rest Johnston County along the 70. It would also save Kinston in a way, making it a bedroom community for the Triangle. I do believe the Triangle's growth will reach down to Smithfield sooner than later anyway (10-20 years which is not long in my mind), but a commuter rail would make it happen sooner.
Perhaps a commuter rail would've been better use of funds than the "super 70" (aka let's go to the beach w/o any stop lights) project.
What do you call long term? I think anyone investing in Smithfield will see property values rise in the next ten years. Clayton is feeling up fast and growth will continue toward Smithfield down the 70 corridor. I think the main thing hindering is good public transport. If NC invested in commuter rail starting in Goldsboro going in to the Triangle, that would make the population and property values boom through Wayne and the rest Johnston County along the 70. It would also save Kinston in a way, making it a bedroom community for the Triangle. I do believe the Triangle's growth will reach down to Smithfield sooner than later anyway (10-20 years which is not long in my mind), but a commuter rail would make it happen sooner.
Perhaps a commuter rail would've been better use of funds than the "super 70" (aka let's go to the beach w/o any stop lights) project.
Just checked the numbers for myself at and Smithfield lost 4.7% population which i less than 1k people. It wen from around 11K to around 10.5K. Compare that to Clayton which grew 131% to about 16K. Meaning it was smaller than Smithfield 10 yrs ago. I have no doubt much of the population that Smithfield loss went to Clayton or even deeper in the Triangle. Still the number loss was not huge and I don't see it getting smaller over the next decade. As I said before, rather the opposite.
What do you call long term? I think anyone investing in Smithfield will see property values rise in the next ten years. Clayton is feeling up fast and growth will continue toward Smithfield down the 70 corridor. I think the main thing hindering is good public transport. If NC invested in commuter rail starting in Goldsboro going in to the Triangle, that would make the population and property values boom through Wayne and the rest Johnston County along the 70. It would also save Kinston in a way, making it a bedroom community for the Triangle. I do believe the Triangle's growth will reach down to Smithfield sooner than later anyway (10-20 years which is not long in my mind), but a commuter rail would make it happen sooner.
Perhaps a commuter rail would've been better use of funds than the "super 70" (aka let's go to the beach w/o any stop lights) project.
In our current political climate, we are seeing massive resistance to investments in rail emerging from even our "representatives" in our largest cities. I just don't see this happening anytime soon.
Just checked the numbers for myself at and Smithfield lost 4.7% population which i less than 1k people. It wen from around 11K to around 10.5K. Compare that to Clayton which grew 131% to about 16K. Meaning it was smaller than Smithfield 10 yrs ago. I have no doubt much of the population that Smithfield loss went to Clayton or even deeper in the Triangle. Still the number loss was not huge and I don't see it getting smaller over the next decade. As I said before, rather the opposite.
Let's put this in perspective. Out of all the municipalities in the Triangle CSA with populations over 10K, exactly one of those lost population in the last decade. So, while the decrease isn't at a "Detroit level", it's definitely a signal if a town loses population while its MSA grows wildly.
Despite the best efforts of some on CD to paint a picture of a wildly sprawling Triangle area, the fact is that the Triangle came about because three distinct cities actually grew toward each other for decades to create a metropolitan area. Remember, as late as 1990, one couldn't even pass through the entire Triangle on an Interstate. Frankly, I think that helped shape the fact that the Triangle's cities basically grew inward towards a common center instead of outward away from each other. As the Triangle continues to grow, it will also expand more out from its center(s) too. Clayton's growth is certainly indicative of this pattern. But, remember, what we see in Clayton now is a result of 2 decades of work since I-40 opened that area up to development. What essentially happened to Smithfield is that less traffic moved down US70 through it because a faster route to Eastern NC was now available. That dynamic continues to remain in place today. I think it's going to hurt Smithfield for some time to come. Eventually suburban growth will reach Smithfield but there's still quite a bit of more desirable land to develop nearer Clayton and the rest of the Triangle. That land is simply going to be developed first. That's why I would call Smithfield a very long term hold for an investment.
But do you honestly or see any indicators that Smithfield will continue to lose population over the decade? Has housing values increased, decreased or remain steady over the past decade? Have more businesses opened or closed? I don't know the answers to these questions and my interactions with Smithfield are chiefly restricted to US 70 (all four of them that pass through Smithfield) and the portion with the outlets along I-95. Ventured a little bit deeper into the area when I was car shopping about a year ago. Nothing I saw led me to believe it was adying town. Or even one that wasn't growing.
All I'm saying is population change, especially one that small, is not the only indicator.
In our current political climate, we are seeing massive resistance to investments in rail emerging from even our "representatives" in our largest cities. I just don't see this happening anytime soon.
I've been hearing about that. For NC to have a history of being pro-business and New South, I think this resistance to rail could be the modern day AL and Birmingham in the mid 20th century when Bham could have had the international airport and not Atlanta.
I've been hearing about that. For NC to have a history of being pro-business and New South, I think this resistance to rail could be the modern day AL and Birmingham in the mid 20th century when Bham could have had the international airport and not Atlanta.
Having a stake in both Florida and NC, I have watched Florida's wacky (criminal) governor give back the state's HSR money and now the Republicans in NC want to do the same.
IMO, either the the oil industry is much more powerful that I ever imagined or these politicians are afraid of the future....or both.
Nonetheless and bringing this back to topic, I don't see any sort of commuter rail to Smithfield for a LOOOONG time and I wouldn't invest there with any hopes that I will make any real money in the shorter term. If someone wants to hold onto a good chunk of land in Smithfield for 20 years, it might be a good idea. But, ten years? I just don't know. Despite the growth of Clayton and what sort of signal that might be sending, there's still an awful lot of land in Wake County that remains undeveloped.
Personally, my bet would be on Chatham County to be the next hotspot. Cary has already crossed the Chatham County line (again crossing into Durham's MSAs but I digress). Eastern Chatham is going to look really enticing as NC540 toll road opens in a year. But, then again, it might be too late to gobble up investment land there. I suspect the developers have most of the available land purchased.
Personally, my bet would be on Chatham County to be the next hotspot. Cary has already crossed the Chatham County line (again crossing into Durham's MSAs but I digress). Eastern Chatham is going to look really enticing as NC540 toll road opens in a year. But, then again, it might be too late to gobble up investment land there. I suspect the developers have most of the available land purchased.
The time to invest in really cheap land in Chatham County (especially northeast Chatham) passed several decades ago. I agree with Chatham county being a future boom area since there are already plans under way to create a master planned community with 60,000 residents east of Pittsboro, which would change that area from fairly rural to an area that will seem like "Cary West".
Even if this doesn't come to fruition exactly as envisioned, I think Chatham county is destined for growth because of the available land, proximity to job markets in all of the Triangle cities rather than being close to just one (like Johnston being in close commuting distance to Raleigh but not Durham/Chapel Hill), outdoor recreational opportunities at Jordan Lake and central location in the state in general.
The western part of the county near Siler City is still much more rural and agrarian and has dealt with a tougher blue collar economy, but if Chatham Park comes to be, it will certainly have some impact on that area as well.
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