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Now that NC's data is out, I thought I'd compile an easy-to-get-to ordered list of NC's largest cities, with 25,000 as the bottom cutoff. Some speculative discussion follows the list.
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Some off-the-cuff discussion, random speculation, irresponsible prognostication, and improvised analysis:
Charlotte is currently 18th largest city in the US. Look for it to move into the top 15 by 2020 - I expect Charlotte, Fort Worth and Austin will very likely displace Detroit, and overtake Indianapolis and Jacksonville FL as well, present growth rates sustained. Charlotte will be (or will be close to) out of annexable land sometime around the same time. It will be over 900,000 in the city, perhaps well over.
Raleigh is #45 in the national rankings. By 2020, present growth rates sustained, I expect to see it move upwards to at least #35. It will be well past 500,000.
Greensboro I expect to pass 300,000 by 2020, but barely. I don't see Winston-Salem or Durham hitting 300,000, but they will be close. With Fayetteville, as all of its' growth came through very large annexations, I expect it's 'growth' rate to fall very dramatically (instead of the 65% for the city, something closer to the 3% seen in the county), though ending overseas wars might boost those numbers.
Of the cities between 100,000 and 200,000, I don't foresee any of them hitting 200,000. Cary would be a long shot, Wilmington and High Point not at all.
Of the cities between 50,000 and 100,000, Greenville, Asheville and Concord are all within striking distance of 100,000 by 2020, present growth rates sustained. Greenville is almost certain to hit it, the other two it will be a close call, though if they don't cross the line, they will be within just a few thousand people.
Burlington, Wilson and Huntersville should easily surpass 50,000 by 2020, and probably within the next year or two. Apex possibly as well.
Goldsboro was the largest city in NC to experience a population decline. Nearby Kinston (21,677) is entering its' 4th decade of population declines, which may be a unique event among large-to-midsized NC cities. Keep in mind, at the 1980 census, Goldsboro, Greenville, Kinston, Rocky Mount, and Wilson were very, very close to the same size.
Now that NC's data is out, I thought I'd compile an easy-to-get-to ordered list of NC's largest cities, with 25,000 as the bottom cutoff. Some speculative discussion follows the list.
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Some off-the-cuff discussion, random speculation, irresponsible prognostication, and improvised analysis:
Charlotte is currently 18th largest city in the US. Look for it to move into the top 15 by 2020 - I expect Charlotte, Fort Worth and Austin will very likely displace Detroit, and overtake Indianapolis and Jacksonville FL as well, present growth rates sustained. Charlotte will be (or will be close to) out of annexable land sometime around the same time. It will be over 900,000 in the city, perhaps well over.
Raleigh is #45 in the national rankings. By 2020, present growth rates sustained, I expect to see it move upwards to at least #35. It will be well past 500,000.
Greensboro I expect to pass 300,000 by 2020, but barely. I don't see Winston-Salem or Durham hitting 300,000, but they will be close. With Fayetteville, as all of its' growth came through very large annexations, I expect it's 'growth' rate to fall very dramatically (instead of the 65% for the city, something closer to the 3% seen in the county), though ending overseas wars might boost those numbers.
Of the cities between 100,000 and 200,000, I don't foresee any of them hitting 200,000. Cary would be a long shot, Wilmington and High Point not at all.
Of the cities between 50,000 and 100,000, Greenville, Asheville and Concord are all within striking distance of 100,000 by 2020, present growth rates sustained. Greenville is almost certain to hit it, the other two it will be a close call, though if they don't cross the line, they will be within just a few thousand people.
Burlington, Wilson and Huntersville should easily surpass 50,000 by 2020, and probably within the next year or two. Apex possibly as well.
Goldsboro was the largest city in NC to experience a population decline. Nearby Kinston (21,677) is entering its' 4th decade of population declines, which may be a unique event among large-to-midsized NC cities. Keep in mind, at the 1980 census, Goldsboro, Greenville, Kinston, Rocky Mount, and Wilson were very, very close to the same size.
5 in Wake County. In another couple of years, you'll be able to add Holly Springs, Morrisville and Fuquay-Varina to the list of "over 25k".
Depending on the outcome of the legislature's pending anti-annexation law, I would expect the following:
Raleigh at 500K by 2018
Apex and Wake Forest over 50K by 2020
Cary at 175K by 2020
Holly Springs, Morrisville and Fuquay Varina at 30K each by 2020. Holly Springs and Morrisville might even be higher.
Garner at 35K in 2020 if it's not absorbed by Raleigh
Knightdale might be a wild horse here. It could go either way.
In total, I suspect that Wake could add 250K and settle in the 2020 census at 1.15 million.
Wilmington will reach the 200,000 mark very soon. New Hanover County already has a population over 200,000 and it's just a matter of time before the city annexes the rest of it.
Wilmington will reach the 200,000 mark very soon. New Hanover County already has a population over 200,000 and it's just a matter of time before the city annexes the rest of it.
I think that's the only way it will reach 200k. I don't see Wilmington doubling its population in 10years.
I think that's the only way it will reach 200k. I don't see Wilmington doubling its population in 10years.
Yeah, I agree. 200K in Wilmington is something I would hold my breath to see. I am not saying that it won't happen but I can't imagine it happening soon. Of course, Wilmington could go the route of Fayetteville and just find a way to annex a #%&!-load of people in one fell swoop.
Yeah, I agree. 200K in Wilmington is something I would hold my breath to see. I am not saying that it won't happen but I can't imagine it happening soon. Of course, Wilmington could go the route of Fayetteville and just find a way to annex a #%&!-load of people in one fell swoop.
Indeed. On another note. If Union County continues to grow, Indian Trail could be the Cary of Charlotte. This place is going to be interesting to watch. It is now the largest city/town in Union. With Union at 62% growth, Indian Trail reminds me of Cary in the early 90s. At that time Cary was the size of present day Apex. Now look at it. Indian trail could hit 50-75k come 2020. I expect Concord and Gastonia to be at at least 80k. Concord if it doesn't hit 100k, will be in the 90s.
And in the perrenial pissing match we have with Charlotte and Raleigh, Mecklenburg has 3 cities.
Indeed. On another note. If Union County continues to grow, Indian Trail could be the Cary of Charlotte. This place is going to be interesting to watch. It is now the largest city/town in Union. With Union at 62% growth, Indian Trail reminds me of Cary in the early 90s. At that time Cary was the size of present day Apex. Now look at it. Indian trail could hit 50-75k come 2020. I expect Concord and Gastonia to be at at least 80k. Concord if it doesn't hit 100k, will be in the 90s.
And in the perrenial pissing match we have with Charlotte and Raleigh, Mecklenburg has 3 cities.
How large is Indian Trail today? Cary in 1990 was about 44,000.
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