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Looking at the areas that most on this board are looking to move to, the numbers aren’t all that impressive.
Taking into account the 1 and 5-year numbers most people are moving from areas that have enjoyed much greater appreciation.
Even the areas that have gone down, the loss is less that 1% for the areas that most here are moving from.
Still little comfort for those sitting on a home that hasn’t sold, but at least the area you are moving to isn't going up much.
Location: Charlotte,NC, US, North America, Earth, Alpha Quadrant,Milky Way Galaxy
3,770 posts, read 7,545,926 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedNC
Looking at the areas that most on this board are looking to move to, the numbers aren’t all that impressive.
Taking into account the 1 and 5-year numbers most people are moving from areas that have enjoyed much greater appreciation.
Even the areas that have gone down, the loss is less that 1% for the areas that most here are moving from.
Still little comfort for those sitting on a home that hasn’t sold, but at least the area you are moving to isn't going up much.
Well the house across the street from me is now on the market by the builder. It was originally under contract by a FL couple who couldn't sell their house. The FL couple dropped their home about $100K and still couldn't move it- I don't know all the details, but I guess it was bad enough that they forfeited their earnest money (normally $5K-$10K). I think it was $10K as they built the most expensive plan on a desireable lot.
We are considering moving from NJ in the summer. This is kind of depressing because who knows what housing prices will be in the Charlotte area by the summer as compared to now. Plus, who knows how long it will take our house to sell.
Location: Charlotte,NC, US, North America, Earth, Alpha Quadrant,Milky Way Galaxy
3,770 posts, read 7,545,926 times
Reputation: 2118
Quote:
Originally Posted by nremondelli
We are considering moving from NJ in the summer. This is kind of depressing because who knows what housing prices will be in the Charlotte area by the summer as compared to now. Plus, who knows how long it will take our house to sell.
Hopefully you don't get to depressed. Maybe you can pull the search in to the late winter time (like Feb?). You should still see good pricing- which is good about NC in that there doesn't seem to be a bubble which would cause a 25% swing in 9 months.
Incidentally, even though I commented on the FL couple dropping their home $100K and still not selling, I still spotted many FL car plates in my neighborhood- so there are those who are making it out!
Well the house across the street from me is now on the market by the builder. It was originally under contract by a FL couple who couldn't sell their house. The FL couple dropped their home about $100K and still couldn't move it- I don't know all the details, but I guess it was bad enough that they forfeited their earnest money (normally $5K-$10K). I think it was $10K as they built the most expensive plan on a desireable lot.
As you said you don’t know all the details.
You don’t know the value of their FL home. Dropping the selling price by $100k tells me nothing. I have seen homes priced well below market (yes there still is such a thing) and they don’t move. The problem is there are no buyers even at drastically reduced prices.
The ripple effect is that the NC builder has to now find another buyer. If the home had some upgrades that the FL buyer wanted then they would have to either find a buyer that wants the same things or eat the costs. Most likely they will have to eat the costs and lower the price.
Until the housing market stabilizes NC is going to continue to see this problem because the majority of people buying new homes have to sell their existing home first. Some are taking a risk and hoping that they sell before their new home is built, but if not two mortgages will get old real fast.
The only way NC will not be negatively effected by the housing down turn is if the bottom is found real soon. If not the prices will begin to drop as people will not be purchasing homes until their home sells. The supply of new unsold homes will increase and the price reductions and incentives will be the only to sell them.
We are considering moving from NJ in the summer. This is kind of depressing because who knows what housing prices will be in the Charlotte area by the summer as compared to now. Plus, who knows how long it will take our house to sell.
Whats depressing? It shows Charlotte up 8%, and Raleigh 6% in 1 year - nothing crazy. Even the "slowing" down areas such as booming Allentown NJ or Alantic City (I just picked 2 random cities from NJ since half of NJ seems to be moving to NC), are up mid teens in a year... double the appreciation of that in NC. So you are still making out twice as good by the home appreciation where many people are coming FROM versus where they are going too.
If anyone has a right to complain its ME. Michigan was cited as the worst state with 13 of 16 regions down?? Try that on for size. Any market in the US is better than yours... you are losing ground each and every day. You guys are worried because your markets are slowing down from 25% annual price growth down to 12% .... gosh I wish I had such problems. My house is appraised at 7% higher than I bought it for in 2001. That is not 7% a year, that is 7% total. A whopping 1.4% annual return. Take out the real estate commission of 6% and I make zilch for 5 years of "sitting". Many people in Florida complaining are complaining because they didnt get out at the top in 2005, but still made 40-50% on the house in 5 years... instead of 70% they could of made last year... let me go get my kleenex.
As you said you don’t know all the details.
You don’t know the value of their FL home. Dropping the selling price by $100k tells me nothing. I have seen homes priced well below market (yes there still is such a thing) and they don’t move. The problem is there are no buyers even at drastically reduced prices.
The ripple effect is that the NC builder has to now find another buyer. If the home had some upgrades that the FL buyer wanted then they would have to either find a buyer that wants the same things or eat the costs. Most likely they will have to eat the costs and lower the price.
Until the housing market stabilizes NC is going to continue to see this problem because the majority of people buying new homes have to sell their existing home first. Some are taking a risk and hoping that they sell before their new home is built, but if not two mortgages will get old real fast.
The only way NC will not be negatively effected by the housing down turn is if the bottom is found real soon. If not the prices will begin to drop as people will not be purchasing homes until their home sells. The supply of new unsold homes will increase and the price reductions and incentives will be the only to sell them.
That is a good point. However, for people who did not draw down their equity through Heloc's etc, they still made a good money on their homes over past 5 years in these high appreciation areas (which seem to be where majority of new NC's are coming from) - one day they need to see the light and sell their homes lower than what their neighbors sold in 2005 or even early 2006, and they will get less than their neighbors... but still far greater than what they bought for in 99, 01 or 03. So they will feel ratty and cheated but then come to NC and still have a lot of equity to put towards houses that are "relatively" affordable (relative to where they came from).
That said, I agree with you that the process happening in other states - this readjustment will slow down sales in NC. This is why I don't get the "I better get in NC before everything takes off syndrome" - people are having hard time selling their homes in their home states, so until this happens most (80%) won't be moving to NC. The other 20% might be 1st time home buyers (hence don't have a home to sell) but those guys aren;t buying the 350-450K type of homes most of the message board posters from high cost states on this board seem to be targeting. So at the top end I don't think there is much to worry about - because that is also where almost all the new supply of housing is coming in at - so as more supply comes online you will get more deals. The lower end (sub $250K homes) might get bid up more quickly but still 6% appreciation shouldn't scare anyone, especially for those who made a killing the past 5 years.
It is very much like the stock market bubble in late 90s - people refused to sell because they thought their stocks that returned 100%s were still undervalued and could not find sellers, so they held on as prices dropped and dropped. Now homes are much more illiquid than stocks, and if you are unhappy with the price I guess you can still live in the home (as opposed to a stock certificate) but in both cases, there is an unrealistic "owner". In the late 90s it was all these people who thought stocks went up 30% a year forevever, and in some of these housing markets its the home owner who thinks houses go up 25% a year forever. This message forum is the exact reason to show that this cannot happen. Too many people are simply priced out so your pool of buyers is essentially dried up at these price levels... prices have to fall in these excessive markets so that a bigger pool of buyers can enter, and it needs to have some correlation with incomes. People cannot devote 75% of their income to a mortgage.
Yep, that is true. It's gradually becoming a buyer's market not a seller's market. But, sadly the buyer's are the sellers who can't sell their existing homes in a heartbeat like they could before, therefore at some point its a market for no one. The prices will drop everywhere, it is the trickle down effect plain and simple. Anyone who was smart took their money from their homes they sold a year ago and held tight waiting for the drop in prices that is sure to come.
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