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New poll confirms that North Carolina is a tossup, and Obama has slight advantage in Florida:
In North Carolina, the CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll indicates a dead heat, with 48% of likely voters supporting Romney and 47% backing Obama. Among independent voters, Romney has a 13 point lead.
"In North Carolina, it's an east-west split, rather than the north-south division we see in Florida," Holland notes. "Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the central and western parts of the state."
Just over eight in ten likely voters said their minds were made up, with 16% saying they could still change their minds.
Obama is up by 2 percent among all registered voters in NC.
President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in North Carolina, according to a new poll out Monday.
The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of High Point University, shows Obama and Romney each earning the support of 43 percent of registered voters in the Tar Heel State.
New poll confirms that North Carolina is a tossup, and Obama has slight advantage in Florida:
In North Carolina, the CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll indicates a dead heat, with 48% of likely voters supporting Romney and 47% backing Obama. Among independent voters, Romney has a 13 point lead.
"In North Carolina, it's an east-west split, rather than the north-south division we see in Florida," Holland notes. "Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the central and western parts of the state."
Just over eight in ten likely voters said their minds were made up, with 16% saying they could still change their minds.
Obama is up by 2 percent among all registered voters in NC.
I don't know that it is that simple, Romney is going to get pwned in Guilford County, Meckenburg County, and Buncombe County, he will also likely lose Forsyth County. Those are big counties and I think Guilford and Forsyth can counter balance all the rest of 336 if they come out strong enough. It is just that almost all of the other counties west of the Triangle are very conservative. There are also going to be places in the East and East of the triangle where Obama goes down badly like Carteret County, Brunswick County, Johnston County, etc. I think it is going to be a case of having a Bunch of Blue Islands in archipelago sitting in a sea of red extending from a blue mass in Northeastern NC which is predominantly AA and will possibly be connected to the triangle.
There are also several problems for Romney here.
1. He failed to win a single competitive race in a southern state in the GOP primary. SC and GA went to Newt and Santorum won LA, TN, MS, AL and OK.
2. Romney and for that matter the entire GOP ticket is disconnected from the South in a way I have only seen once before and that was 1996 Dole/Kemp and that was not a pretty election for them.
3. The GOP is very much reliant of evangelical church based turnout in NC, and Mitt Romney is a Mormon. I imagine there are at least some pastors out there that are at the very least reluctant to rally the troops for a Mormon especially given that if they do so they may have him for 2 election cycles instead of 1.
Last edited by Randomstudent; 08-27-2012 at 07:49 PM..
IN NC and VA, the high and growing Black, well-educated, college student, Latino, and urban populations are the key to victory for Obama. Blacks are even more pro-Obama this year than they were in 2008. Yet another poll finds that Romney's support is almost non-existent among Blacks. Likewise, Latinos are giving Romney a thumbs down by a huge margin.
BET News Poll reveals the G.O.P. is on track for the worst showing with black voters in modern history
--Only 2% Say They Will Support the Romney/Ryan Ticket --Data Say GOP Leaders "Seem Hostile to Minorities" --African-American Registered Voters Are Poised for High Level of Turnout and Optimistic About Economic Recovery Under President Obama --Chief Economic Concern is Cost of Living, Not Jobs
In Western NC, Boone, Asheville, Obama, Charlotte, Obama, Research Triangle, Obama.... That's my guess going by the amendment one vote.
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