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According to an analysis of early voting in North Carolina’s top 10 most populous counties, conducted by Michael McDonald, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Florida, ballot requests are up 17 percent from 2012 among registered Democrats and down 27 percent among Republicans. This suggests that Mr. Trump’s weakness in urban and suburban areas may be hurting him badly among Republicans, as many expected.
If Trump loses North Carolina, should it be blamed solely on him as a candidate, or that demographics have shifted in this state to favor Democrats on the presidential level? Because interestingly enough, Hillary is polling worst than Obama did in Iowa and Ohio, and is at a higher risk to lose both this November (whereas Obama carried both in 2008 and 2012). Are we witnessing a shift in American politics where parts of the South is becoming more Democratic, whereas parts of the Midwest is becoming more Republican?
If Trump loses North Carolina, should it be blamed solely on him as a candidate, or that demographics have shifted in this state to favor Democrats on the presidential level? Because interestingly enough, Hillary is polling worst than Obama did in Iowa and Ohio, and is at a higher risk to lose both this November (whereas Obama carried both in 2008 and 2012). Are we witnessing a shift in American politics where parts of the South is becoming more Democratic, whereas parts of the Midwest is becoming more Republican?
For a variety of reasons, I think its going to be unwise to use the 2016 election as a data point for determining political trends.
Although virtually all post debate polls show Clinton ahead in North Carolina now, I find it fascinating that SOME of them show her outperforming Ross and Cooper. Who are these people supporting Clinton, but not Ross and Cooper?
Republicans (especially women) who can't stomach the idea of Trump.
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If Trump loses North Carolina, should it be blamed solely on him as a candidate, or that demographics have shifted in this state to favor Democrats on the presidential level? Because interestingly enough, Hillary is polling worst than Obama did in Iowa and Ohio, and is at a higher risk to lose both this November (whereas Obama carried both in 2008 and 2012). Are we witnessing a shift in American politics where parts of the South is becoming more Democratic, whereas parts of the Midwest is becoming more Republican?
Don't forget, NC went to Obama in 2008 and then back to Red. We are still in the knife-edge status as far as most Presidential candidates, but you're correct that Trump should not be the basis for any "trends".
Ohio and Iowa apparently reflect a general trend in the Midwest towards Republicans, as the old once-solid Democratic Union population becomes disenchanted. Of course Ohio is a perpetual swing state, but Iowa has been Blue for a long time--even went for Dukakis, for goodness' sake! Michigan and Wisconsin could come into play as well.
Meanwhile, NC and Georgia (and even SC) are in fact becoming more Democratic--both are states with growing urban and shrinking rural populations, which is one of the biggest tests for Democrat/Republican. Both also have significant minority populations.
I wish I could find that map that had every county colored by its R->D or D->R trend. Both of these trends are pretty stark on it.
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