North Carolina, red and blue

[rnc2mbfl]

Originally Posted by Mutiny77

It must be kept in mind that until very recently, it was those educated suburban transplants in Cobb, north Fulton, south Cherokee, Gwinnett, Fayette, Columbia, etc counties that kept Georgia in the Republican column. Newt Gingrich represented the one of those northern suburban Atlanta Congressional districts in the 90s after all. However, the counties that were getting most of Georgia's Black transplants over the decades either became a deeper shade of blue or were flipped from red to blue. When looking at Georgia's population growth over the past half-century and how its politics have been impacted, one cannot deny the role that particular demographic shifts among transplants have had.

There's no denial of the impact of new black transplants/voters at all, but it's also true that the suburbs in general have been trending blue regardless. This is likely especially true for fast growing burbs in Southern knowledge economies in places like Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, etc. This fundamental shift is partly due to generational change, the fact that suburbs are more diverse than they used to be, and even more educated than they used to be. Many new suburban residents in these sorts of places are also coming from more 'blue" metros than the traditional South.

Cabarrus Co., a statistically more 'white" suburban county (than Mecklenburg) in the Charlotte metro, moved 11 points to the left in this past election. If it moves 11 more in the next pres. election, it's a blue county. I don't have the data, but I doubt Cabarrus Co.'s black population moved 11 points in the last 4 years.

According to the Census, Georgia is 32.6% black, while NC is 22.2%. With similar total population, one would expect a greater delta between the two states' voting patterns this past election, yet the two states were within <2% points of each other: D/R. With the 500,000+ more votes coming out of NC than GA in 2020, I think that it deserves to be further explored how voter suppression might play a role in that delta of Georgia's existing electorate. Stacey made inroads within the state that flipped the state, but there's much more room to run those numbers higher, and it's not up to new black transplants; the numbers are already there.

@10.62M people, the black population in GA represents ~3.46M residents
@10.49M people, the black population in NC represents ~2.33M residents

Georgia has more than a million more black residents, while NC had 500,000 more voters. Hmm????

[Mutiny77]

Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl

There's no denial of the impact of new black transplants/voters at all, but it's also true that the suburbs in general have been trending blue regardless. This is likely especially true for fast growing burbs in Southern knowledge economies in places like Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, etc. This fundamental shift is partly due to generational change, the fact that suburbs are more diverse than they used to be, and even more educated than they used to be. Many new suburban residents in these sorts of places are also coming from more 'blue" metros than the traditional South.

Cabarrus Co., a statistically more 'white" suburban county (than Mecklenburg) in the Charlotte metro, moved 11 points to the left in this past election. If it moves 11 more in the next pres. election, it's a blue county. I don't have the data, but I doubt Cabarrus Co.'s black population moved 11 points in the last 4 years.

According to the Census, Georgia is 32.6% black, while NC is 22.2%. With similar total population, one would expect a greater delta between the two states' voting patterns this past election, yet the two states were within <2% points of each other: D/R. With the 500,000+ more votes coming out of NC than GA in 2020, I think that it deserves to be further explored how voter suppression might play a role in that delta of Georgia's existing electorate. Stacey made inroads within the state that flipped the state, but there's much more room to run those numbers higher, and it's not up to new black transplants; the numbers are already there.

@10.62M people, the black population in GA represents ~3.46M residents
@10.49M people, the black population in NC represents ~2.33M residents

Georgia has more than a million more black residents, while NC had 500,000 more voters. Hmm????

My point concerning demographics is that it's a mistake to think that a Republican-dominated place is destined to (permanently) flip simply because it's growing rapidly with more educated, affluent residents; that used to be considered safe territory for Republicans but not anymore. This sort of thing can ebb and flow, and the last two presidential elections have demonstrated that. Even if Trump is considered an aberration, aberrations do happen more regularly in politics than we might care to admit.

When it comes to suburban counties like Cabarrus, I think the 2018 midterms results would be very telling. It was obvious that Trump was pushing many suburbs more to the left in 2016, but the midterms seemed to be somewhat more accurate for gauging the local electorate ideologically since Trump wasn't on the ballot. That election was prescient for Georgia for sure.