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Old 10-02-2020, 01:29 PM
 
Location: Fredericksburg, VA
1,262 posts, read 877,605 times
Reputation: 489

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Hey All,

So it appears that North Carolina is going to be a huge state in the elections next month due to Governor, Senate, and Presidential Races taking place. I was wondering, what do you all make of the chances for Trump, Tillis, and Forest to win the state?

I reside in Virginia, and have not been down to NC in a while, so I really want your input on the chances.

First of all, How good of a chance does Trump have to win the state? I always felt that NC was generally a red state when it came to the federal presidential elections. Obama did win it in 2008, but McCain was an extremely weak and terrible candidate. Would you say that Trump has a decent chance of carrying NC again?

What about the Senate Race between Tillis & Cunningham? How popular is Tillis at the moment? I really hope that Tillis can carry it, but Cunningham seems to be ahead in the polls. Is Cunningham liked? Who do you think has the better chance of winning the Senate?

Lastly, Gov. Cooper vs Forest. I really am hoping that Dan Forest can carry this, but Cooper seems to have a huge lead in the polls. With that said I feel the polls must be taken with a grain of salt, but what does it look like in the cities and suburban areas though? Does Dan Forest have any chance? I'm hearing that people are extremely tired of the lockdown and want it to end, which I hope will help Forest. With that said I do not know much about either candidate? How far left is Cooper would you say? Is he a moderate democrat or a more extreme leftist? What about Forest? How popular is he? Is he more moderate or farther right?
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Old 10-02-2020, 02:34 PM
 
775 posts, read 350,369 times
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Here is some poling data, which is far more meaningful that a few random opinions:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orth-carolina/

It shows Biden with a 3 point lead over Trump, Cunningham with a 12 point lead over Tillis and Cooper with a 10 point lead over Forrest. I hope those all come to pass. I'm very surprised by the size of Cunningham's lead, and somewhat surprised by Cooper's lead. I would expect both those races to be closer.

Cooper is pretty moderate. Forrest is extremely far right.
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Old 10-02-2020, 02:57 PM
 
1,776 posts, read 1,474,332 times
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Luckily there is a forum specifically for these types of questions: //www.city-data.com/forum/elections/
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Old 10-02-2020, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Fredericksburg, VA
1,262 posts, read 877,605 times
Reputation: 489
Quote:
Originally Posted by CLT4 View Post
Luckily there is a forum specifically for these types of questions: //www.city-data.com/forum/elections/
Yeah I might repost there. I thought that this might do better here because of more NC residence, but might as well make another post in that forum.
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Old 10-02-2020, 03:25 PM
 
775 posts, read 350,369 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CLT4 View Post
Luckily there is a forum specifically for these types of questions: //www.city-data.com/forum/elections/
The OP' post is focused entirely on NC...why wouldn't it belong here?
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Old 10-02-2020, 03:46 PM
 
Location: Fredericksburg, VA
1,262 posts, read 877,605 times
Reputation: 489
Quote:
Originally Posted by Royal James View Post
Here is some poling data, which is far more meaningful that a few random opinions:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orth-carolina/

It shows Biden with a 3 point lead over Trump, Cunningham with a 12 point lead over Tillis and Cooper with a 10 point lead over Forrest. I hope those all come to pass. I'm very surprised by the size of Cunningham's lead, and somewhat surprised by Cooper's lead. I would expect both those races to be closer.

Cooper is pretty moderate. Forrest is extremely far right.
If Cooper is moderate and Forrest is extremely far right, I guess that explains why Cooper is in a 10 point lead. I assume he is probably the favorite, but I would really like to see Forrest prevail.

What about Cunningham and Tillis? Don't know as much about them either, but from what I am reading, I would expect Cunningham while not extreme is quite further left than Cooper. His lead over Tillis definitely seems inflated especially since Tillis is the incumbent. That really makes me wonder? What are people annoyed at with Tillis?
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Old 10-02-2020, 03:53 PM
 
Location: The Piedmont Triad
597 posts, read 237,129 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CLT4 View Post
Luckily there is a forum specifically for these types of questions: //www.city-data.com/forum/elections/



That place is a cesspool. You will have to take a shower after visiting that area.
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Old 10-02-2020, 04:22 PM
 
619 posts, read 638,784 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny K View Post
If Cooper is moderate and Forrest is extremely far right, I guess that explains why Cooper is in a 10 point lead. I assume he is probably the favorite, but I would really like to see Forrest prevail.

What about Cunningham and Tillis? Don't know as much about them either, but from what I am reading, I would expect Cunningham while not extreme is quite further left than Cooper. His lead over Tillis definitely seems inflated especially since Tillis is the incumbent. That really makes me wonder? What are people annoyed at with Tillis?
I wouldn't call Cunningham "quite further left than Cooper" per se. He was able to win over most Democrats in his primary despite a more liberal challenger, thanks in part to his military background. I think what's helping him now is that the national Democratic Party thought Tillis was vulnerable and has pumped considerable money and influence into the race, and Cunningham has few negatives the Republicans can hang onto him.

Tillis usually is seen more supporting Trump than supporting North Carolina. At the same time, some doctrinaire Republicans have their doubts about how loyal Tillis is to the president. Ask anyone outside of professional politicos what Tillis has done for the Old North State, and you'll be lucky if you get any response at all.

I will say the momentum lately appears to be that of a blue wave not only here but also in South Carolina, where Lindsey Graham is fighting for his life, and even Georgia, where Biden is neck and neck with Trump and the state may get a Democrat as a senator as well. But we won't know that for another month at least.
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Old 10-02-2020, 04:45 PM
Status: "Liberated but watchful" (set 14 days ago)
 
Location: North Carolina
4,952 posts, read 3,004,942 times
Reputation: 8997
I won't answer some of the questions that have already been addressed but would just add that Forest may have gotten more traction had he been about reopening the economy in a way that protects the public, but his anti-mask stance (including in schools, where he wants to send other people's kids back to) makes it hard to take him seriously. Plus, he also filed a lawsuit against Governor Cooper and the way he was handling the pandemic, which got tossed. Before that, the legislation that he championed was against Medicaid expansion and for HB2, both of which have caused problems for NC citizens with our economy and our health. He is very popular among far Right wing types.

Cooper is a moderate, pragmatic Democrat, and while he leads quietly, he isn't afraid to stand up when something is corrupt and when it was politically unpopular for him to do so (i.e. he was a whistleblower in the Duke LaCrosse rape case in which some students behaved reprehensibly but not criminally and a DA in Durham was trying to prosecute them for political reasons). He's had tumultuous events occur during his tenure as Governor, between some Republicans trying to take away Executive functions for political reasons, to managing several disastrous hurricanes, to the current pandemic.

The candidate that hasn't seen much attention in the Lt. Governor race is Democratic candidate Yvonne Holley. All we hear about is Mark Robinson, a political newcomer who seems solely focused on 2A and other cultural war issues, in a divisive way. He is also very popular with far rights people, particularly those against gun control and those afraid that the "leftists are taking of America". However, I'm not sure he would understand what his job would actually entail when it comes to core executive functions that don't involve showboating displays of bravado.

https://www.nc.gov/agency/lieutenant...l%20of%20State.

Yvonne Holley has a solid legislative record, especially regarding education and health care, and seems to get along well with others across the political spectrum from what I've heard and seen of her:

https://ballotpedia.org/Yvonne_Lewis_Holley

Last edited by Jowel; 10-02-2020 at 06:14 PM..
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Old 10-02-2020, 06:18 PM
Status: "Welcome back Hockey!" (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Planet Earth
7,864 posts, read 8,809,771 times
Reputation: 5712
The state will likely go Trump at the presidential level.

The senate/gubernatorial races, well flip a coin.
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