The economy is in trouble (how much, unemployment rate, prices) - Northeastern Pennsylvania - Pennsylvania (PA) -Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Pocono area - Page 2 - City-Data Forum

mathjak107 · 02-27-2008, 02:43 AM

actually the only thing that has been saving us is the fact that we are out sourcing and doing alot of things overseas with cheap labor. its the cheap labor thats been keeping prices down for us and not letting them rise to where they really should be. with most commodity prices for raw materials and foods up over 100% in a year or 2 we would really have been screwed economically if it wasnt for cheap labor,

my own company has a pump manufacturing facility we just opened in china . its the only place we can afford to manufacture and still hope to be competitive and sell our products. the world is globally connected to each other. each country specializes in what it is they do better and cheaper than anyone else. thats what keeps our standard of living getting better and better and our dollars buying better and better value for our money. no one likes to see someone out of work but the fact is we would still be driving those crappy cars american manufacturers were building for us in the 70,s if it wasnt for the fact japan was doing it better.

brazil had decided to close there country to any products not made in brazil. it was a disaster. there cnc machinary sucked so bad compared to the world class stuff that was available that huge companies packed up and left. ibm found it impossible to manufacture there using brazillian equipment. i wouldnt worry about the outsourcing of certain areas of the economy, we all benefit from it with better value and better standards of living. i would worry about america shifting gears and finding a few more niches that we do better than everyone else.

there is so much outsourcing going on here in new york they routed the suicide hotline to afganastan . i called up and told them i felt suicidal, they were screaming in the background and jumping up and down, THEY ASKED ME IF I COULD DRIVE A TRUCK!. ha ha ha

mathjak107 · 02-27-2008, 04:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by memoriesbre

It is so sad. We are the middle class and we are in trouble. The gas prices are unbelieveable and something has to be done but what? Should we all strike for a day?
I doesn't work...

like i keep reminding everybody. you need to gear some of your long term investments into commodity funds as well. you need to hedge energy costs and food costs. we insure against everything in the world that may happen to us but the basic needs of life we leave to a wing and a prayer.

although i hate paying more and more for stuff i made these funds part of my investment life years ago. i made enough to pay my energy costs for the next few years. i hope i loose a little money in these funds as overall we would all be further ahead with lower costs but if not you just cant leave these rises un-hedged. of course you need the money to do this and unfourtunetly if you have no retirement savings that you can allocate then there isnt much you can do.

i like GSG and DBC for funds that cover the more popular raw material groups. USO for a straight oil play, they own lots of barrels of oil and GLD for owning gold
you wouldnt just buy fire insurance on your house during drought season. you wouldnt just insure your car when its icy out, of course not. you need to insure food and energy costs so you see a little profit too as costs climb because its the only thing you can do to protect against it..

as they say IF YOU CANT BEAT EM, JOIN EM

Stanb999 · 02-28-2008, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mathjak107

like i keep reminding everybody. you need to gear some of your long term investments into commodity funds as well. you need to hedge energy costs and food costs. we insure against everything in the world that may happen to us but the basic needs of life we leave to a wing and a prayer.

although i hate paying more and more for stuff i made these funds part of my investment life years ago. i made enough to pay my energy costs for the next few years. i hope i loose a little money in these funds as overall we would all be further ahead with lower costs but if not you just cant leave these rises un-hedged. of course you need the money to do this and unfourtunetly if you have no retirement savings that you can allocate then there isnt much you can do.

i like GSG and DBC for funds that cover the more popular raw material groups. USO for a straight oil play, they own lots of barrels of oil and GLD for owning gold
you wouldnt just buy fire insurance on your house during drought season. you wouldnt just insure your car when its icy out, of course not. you need to insure food and energy costs so you see a little profit too as costs climb because its the only thing you can do to protect against it..

as they say IF YOU CANT BEAT EM, JOIN EM

Hey!!! Remember the talk about oil prices about 2 months ago? Remember the poor commuters? Remember the oil wont stay near above $90?

I saw your thread about the wheat... The sheeple will be starving in the street before they get it. Those that know.... Know. Those that don't get it wont.

Did you see thet the Dollar is down 2.5% this week on the USD index?

mathjak107 · 02-28-2008, 05:23 PM

remember i was the one who said i didnt see oil dropping ..... it was businezguy who felt it would. i wouldnt count on it. remember even if we slow down they can always cut production to match slower demand.

Stanb999 · 02-28-2008, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mathjak107

remember i was the one who said i didnt see oil dropping ..... it was businezguy who felt it would. i wouldnt count on it. remember even if we slow down they can always cut production to match slower demand.

Yeah, they said they would do as much last week. Did you see where Greenspan told the middle east to uncouple their currencies? This will cause the price to shoot skyward.

businezguy · 02-29-2008, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stanb999

Hey!!! Remember the talk about oil prices about 2 months ago? Remember the poor commuters? Remember the oil wont stay near above $90?

I saw your thread about the wheat... The sheeple will be starving in the street before they get it. Those that know.... Know. Those that don't get it wont.

Did you see thet the Dollar is down 2.5% this week on the USD index?

Stan, it was I who stated that oil prices will decline, and what's more, I still stick to it. It wasn't two months ago, BTW. Since than, oil prices went down, and than, after a major cut by the fed in rates, have gone up to all time highs.

Like the housing market, it sometimes takes awhile for reality to sink in. People are SO stubborn.

It's possible oil prices won't go down this year, but economic factors will force it down. This economy is going to bring other economies down with it, and oil will have a decline in demand. India and China are NOT independant, and will be taken down with the rest of the world.

mathjak107 · 02-29-2008, 04:50 PM

lets meet back in 6 months and review

businezguy · 02-29-2008, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mathjak107

lets meet back in 6 months and review

Yep, that's pretty much where things stand. The oil market, like the housing market, may take 1 or 2 years longer than anticipated to collapse, but it should occur.

Besides, there ARE some good things coming out of this issue. It looks like the Toyota Prius, and up-and-coming Honda hybrid are going to get some amazing MPG, and be more comparable in price to compacts than current hybrids. What's going to happen when folks are able to get cars that get 50 to 60 MPG or more, and cost almost as much as regular cars? What's going to happen when folks find out that energy demand for China will be significantly below expectations because their consumers have a very poor economy?

I'll say it again:

I wouldn't suggest investing in oil. I wouldn't suggest investing in housing. I wouldn't suggest investing in bonds. I wouldn't suggest investing in medical care.

All of the above are not, and/or will not be good investments.

mathjak107 · 03-01-2008, 02:37 AM

i would be buying commodity funds not as an investment but as insurance. you can't just leave rising prices like this unhedged. i would and am buying long term bonds , as portfolio protection against deflation and severe recession . no other asset class can respond as well with enough ooomph to a severe recession or deflation. just the last 2 days my TLT has risen almost 4% off setting some of the loss in stocks. even at the paultry 4.5% rate there is still 20-30% worth of protection there in capital gains. home builders a little to early. citi group and merril look like good speculations and although its a little early i think you want to be a little early to this party
. they will make investors a lot of money long term. you just have to tolerate some more potential drops.

depending how old you are or your comfort level in this economic enviornment its not about getting richer anymore, its about not getting poorer and its important to have a well diversified portfolio covering all the potential economic scenerios, NOT WHAT YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN BY THE SEAT OF YOUR PANTS

mathjak107 · 03-01-2008, 04:27 AM

what i think will happen if all our cars get 60mpg or china stumbles is opec will cut production to match to keep prices up . i always say supply and demand are not one word nor are they the same meaning. does it mean im right? beats me ........ does it matter if im right or wrong? not to much as i profit either way by the diversification in my investments