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Yes, actually South Sterling. We were engaged, but she called if off last year. We still remain good friends and we work together, but it's not the same. I thought she was the ONE. But thanks for the kind sentiments. We better get back on topic now, this isn't the relationship forum. LOL
I know. I don't want coartist88 to smack us both upside the head!
It's one thing to harbor animosity towards elected officials who you deem to be accountable for your city's impending collapse (which I can respect you for). It's another thing entirely to become so blind-sided by that anger and frustration with the apathy of the general public towards your city's political machine that your civic pride vanishes altogether. Dan, you're quite guilty of this.
I'm guilty of what? No civic pride? Your kidding me right? I just spent last thursday, friday, and today completely cutting, mulching, mowing and tree cutting a neighbors property in my neighborhood because she cannot afford a landscaper nor does she have the equipment and ability to do it herself. She is actually looking to sell her house and move because she can no longer afford to live in the city. I put over 24 hours into her property and I'm going back tomorrow. Sweat equity will help increase the $$ she makes on the house to move.
Don't lecture me about Scranton Paul. Lets remember for everyone else's sake where you are and where I am ok. You don't live here and yet you feel that you can question my civic pride. I have taken one for the team on more then one occassion for what is right in this city and I wll not be lectured by someone that doesn't even live here.
It is Doherty's fault and whether you can believe it or not thats your problem. Our annual budgets have easily doubled in the last 7 years and our debt went from a $7,000,000 surplus to close to half a billion in long term debt in less then 8 years and you are going to tell me that its not Doherty's fault.......
Honestly what have we really recieved in return for that debt...
Treehouse, bridge to nowhere, parking garages, lower police presence, poorly equiped fire dept., increase in violent crime, decrease in population, increase of homes on the market.
Where is the pot of gold at the end of that rainbow? Your very quick to point that critical finger at those of us that are actually living in the city and speaking the truth about it, because really when it comes down to it you have no idea whats its like to live here.
Well I'm sure weluvpa (Dan) will be thrilled to see this thread. It has been only a couple of months since I last checked the city-wide MLS listings on the Greater Scranton Board of Realtors web site, but since then the number of listings for single-family properties in the city has swelled to a staggering 317, which is up by roughly 1/3 since earlier in the season.
I honestly have no explanation as to what has caused a sudden spike in the number of people putting their homes on the market in the Electric City. Lackawanna County in its entirety had 1,084 single-family homes on the market via the MLS as of this evening, and I believe that figure is likewise up. What gives?
Take a simple absorption rate analysis; absorption rate only rates to amount of inventory, not supply. Again, this is a simple absorption rate analysis, this is not broken down by segment and does not address many economic factors that would go into something as complex as a land sub-division feasibility appraisal.
If you've ever relocated or know someone who had his/her home bought out by a relocation company for a job transfer, this is the analysis that the companies want the appraiser to utilize:
absorption: The number of homes sold in a given period, I'm apt to use a quarterly period in softening/declining markets. For a quarterly period divide the total number of homes sold by three. For the latest quarter in Scranton there were 97 sales, or, about 32 homes sold per month. The previous 7 quarterly periods absorption rates were as follows: 26, 23, 33, 44, 34, 32, 45. Take special note of the rate for Q5, 44 homes per month. A YOY comparison shows that 27% more homes sold per month in market conditions of a year ago. I emphasize that period for two reasons. One, the Summer months are typically the best for sales in our area; two, we ideally want to compare apples to apples.
Well, that only tells half the story. Now for some bad news for people trying sell their home.
inventory: The inventory for the Scranton school district goes like this for the last eight quarters beginning 05/29/08 - 08/29/08: 319, 312, 302, 312, 311, 237, 194, 197.
supply: To get an inventory of supply you would divide the number of homes for sale in a period by the absorption rate. The IOS for the previous eight quarters looks like this: 10 months, 12 mos, 13 mos, 10 mos, 7 mos, 7 mos, 6 mos, 4 mos. I think you get the picture.
This is typical of softening markets, not declining markets. If you want to see one in decline, ask me to analyze some portions of the Poconos...there is about 5 years of inventory in some markets there. The anomaly of what's happening now is that it's not a 'buyers' or 'sellers' market. Financing for sub 700 FICO scores is almost non-existent unless you elect to utilize the FHA financing program - then you play the worry game as the home is torn to shreds by the appraiser to see if it meets the Minimum Property Standards set forth by HUD.
Another thing to remember is that this is an aggregated view of the Scranton market area - these numbers tell only a portion of the story. For example, if you live in an entry level home in the Hill Section you may be better off than someone with a comparable home on East Mountain. A market analysis needs to be performed on each market area and the price segments within those areas to get a handle on what's happening.
Lastly, some of the economic factors omitted from my cursory analysis include building permits issued, unemployment levels, sub-division approvals, population migratory patterns, etc, etc. These can really skew the numbers in different directions.
But, you'll have to cut a check with a bunch of zeros on it to get that level of analysis .
Sorry for the long-winded answer ScranBarre, but, you seem like a very intelligent guy and thought you might enjoy another tool to have in the belt. The problem for the general public is in finding out the absorption rate. Good luck on getting those numbers from a Realtor!
To all who have participated in this discussion, Scranton is political in every facet. You're either at the table or on the menu. This is probably true of every small city and hamlet that dots NEPA's valleys; I don't believe it's fair to single out and laud the incapacity of one local government to fairly govern itself when there is such parity in ineptitude and malfeasance throughout the region.
I live in the suburbs north of Scranton and have seen the countryside rapidly eaten up by suburban sprawl. To say that the sprawl has brought Scranton to it's knees would be the understatement of a lifetime.
Stop sprawl and watch the city fully begin to enter the gentrification stage. If you want to see for yourself check out the census numbers for the last 50 years for The Abingtons, North Pocono, up and down valleys, Tunkhannock, Dalton, etc.
American FactFinder - the numbers are very disparaging for Scranton. Trend it out as long as there remains vacant land to develop in the suburban and rural areas; Scranton will continually lose until these areas are forced to stop sprawl.
To all who have participated in this discussion, Scranton is political in every facet. You're either at the table or on the menu. This is probably true of every small city and hamlet that dots NEPA's valleys; I don't believe it's fair to single out and laud the incapacity of one local government to fairly govern itself when there is such parity in ineptitude and malfeasance throughout the region.
I live in the suburbs north of Scranton and have seen the countryside rapidly eaten up by suburban sprawl. To say that the sprawl has brought Scranton to it's knees would be the understatement of a lifetime.
Stop sprawl and watch the city fully begin to enter the gentrification stage. If you want to see for yourself check out the census numbers for the last 50 years for The Abingtons, North Pocono, up and down valleys, Tunkhannock, Dalton, etc.
American FactFinder - the numbers are very disparaging for Scranton. Trend it out as long as there remains vacant land to develop in the suburban and rural areas; Scranton will continually lose until these areas are forced to stop sprawl.
Good post. The problem is urban sprawl will never really stop in this region. Companies see vacant land and will pounce on it in a second to put up their business or build a home. The town that they're building on will cite economical growth and progress for them, while the business will tout they are bringing jobs to the region. It's pretty hard to stop sprawl when there is a lot of money involved for both parties. It's win-lose situation. You're winning economical growth, but losing land.
For the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton MSA it has been a win-win (unless you live in Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, or Hazleton). Property values have grown exponentially relative to their historic rates in the suburbs whiles they have grown at more sustainable levels in the three urban areas.
For the East Stroudsburg micropolitan statistical area it has been the exact opposite. The level of growth was not anticipated and therefore preparations such as infrastructure were insufficient. Unless employment follows the migration of residential sprawl to the Poconos I fear that many of the rural communities will become blighted and abandoned.
NYRangers 2008 - I believe I've read you are from the Sterling area, or somewhere near there in Wayne County. Please correct me if I'm off.
The thing that boggles my mind is how the areas in Pike and Wayne Counties have experienced similar growth to Monroe but do not have problems that are happening there. I'd love your input as you probably have a better perspective living amid the growth.
To bring this full circle onto the original topic - in my opinion the markets in Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Wyoming are softening as a normal reaction to adverse economic conditions; Wayne and Pike are softening but at a more accelerated rate than Lack, Luz, and Wyom; Monroe has been in a decline for about 6-8 months - if mortgage market conditions don't improve soon, prices in this market will spiral downward dramatically. I think I wrote in an earlier post that some parts of Monroe County has over 5 years of inventory - now I've never worked in retail but I imagine the only way to decrease one's inventory is to liquidate it. This is all while the interest rates for negatively amortizing mortgage products have not begun to float yet.
I hate to be gloomy and doomy, but that's what I get paid to do. Plus, it is apparent from the original post that this is becoming essential information for everyone and not just banker empty suit types.
The one upside to our area is that we won't face the volume of foreclosures that many other parts of country have and will have. Nevada, Arizona, California, Michigan, Florida have been hit with so many foreclosures that the foreclosures HAVE become the market values and what the typical homeowner is competing against when marketing his/her home. TG it's not likely to happen here.
Well I'm sure weluvpa (Dan) will be thrilled to see this thread. It has been only a couple of months since I last checked the city-wide MLS listings on the Greater Scranton Board of Realtors web site, but since then the number of listings for single-family properties in the city has swelled to a staggering 317, which is up by roughly 1/3 since earlier in the season.
I honestly have no explanation as to what has caused a sudden spike in the number of people putting their homes on the market in the Electric City. Lackawanna County in its entirety had 1,084 single-family homes on the market via the MLS as of this evening, and I believe that figure is likewise up. What gives?
For the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton MSA it has been a win-win (unless you live in Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, or Hazleton). Property values have grown exponentially relative to their historic rates in the suburbs whiles they have grown at more sustainable levels in the three urban areas.
For the East Stroudsburg micropolitan statistical area it has been the exact opposite. The level of growth was not anticipated and therefore preparations such as infrastructure were insufficient. Unless employment follows the migration of residential sprawl to the Poconos I fear that many of the rural communities will become blighted and abandoned.
NYRangers 2008 - I believe I've read you are from the Sterling area, or somewhere near there in Wayne County. Please correct me if I'm off.
The thing that boggles my mind is how the areas in Pike and Wayne Counties have experienced similar growth to Monroe but do not have problems that are happening there. I'd love your input as you probably have a better perspective living amid the growth.
To bring this full circle onto the original topic - in my opinion the markets in Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Wyoming are softening as a normal reaction to adverse economic conditions; Wayne and Pike are softening but at a more accelerated rate than Lack, Luz, and Wyom; Monroe has been in a decline for about 6-8 months - if mortgage market conditions don't improve soon, prices in this market will spiral downward dramatically. I think I wrote in an earlier post that some parts of Monroe County has over 5 years of inventory - now I've never worked in retail but I imagine the only way to decrease one's inventory is to liquidate it. This is all while the interest rates for negatively amortizing mortgage products have not begun to float yet.
I hate to be gloomy and doomy, but that's what I get paid to do. Plus, it is apparent from the original post that this is becoming essential information for everyone and not just banker empty suit types.
The one upside to our area is that we won't face the volume of foreclosures that many other parts of country have and will have. Nevada, Arizona, California, Michigan, Florida have been hit with so many foreclosures that the foreclosures HAVE become the market values and what the typical homeowner is competing against when marketing his/her home. TG it's not likely to happen here.
I'm originally from Long Island. Moved to NEPA, the Hideout, in 1986. Moved to West Scranton in 2002. I'm in the Sterling/Newfoundland area quite a bit though,
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