What Amazon’s HQ2 will mean for house prices in Ashburn? (Arlington: sales, apartments)

[Piney Creek]

Originally Posted by erock139

Of course I'm biased because I just bought in/moved to Stafford and am banking my retirement on someone willing to move out for a little more home.

I think Stafford will benefit, too. Most, if not all the satellite burbs will. Just like with Loudoun, Stafford will have some employees move in, and you will also have some former residents from Arlington cash out their now pricey homes and move to Stafford.

[Tarheelhombre]

How about Lincolnia?

[paytonc]

Originally Posted by Deeman804

At that point, you might as well live in Stafford.

Or Burke or Manassas, where the other VRE branch goes. Any of those won't involve a transfer. Nor will Huntington or Springfield -- and none of these are as pricey as Loudoun.

Something else that GMU's housing impact analysis mentions, which others upthread have also hinted at, is that a great many homes nearby are owned by Baby Boomers who are at retirement age. A big part of housing solutions for the region will be more senior-friendly housing (which often will be a bit denser than what exists today), which can open up existing housing stock for families.

Shuttle buses are a bit of an X-factor in determining commute times -- especially given that buses are allowed use of the 66/395 HOT lanes and even Dulles Access Road lanes. Both Loudoun and Prince William currently run commuter buses into Crystal City, and Amazon runs an extensive Seattle-region shuttle network.

[skeddy]

it will have zippo effect, skyrocketing home prices are real estate market hype.

[NC211]

Originally Posted by skeddy

it will have zippo effect, skyrocketing home prices are real estate market hype.

I’m guessing you skipped the first week of economics 101.. it’s called supply/demand.

Let’s not all forget here that it’s not just Amazon, but the inevitable support businesses that will follow and feed from Amazon too. Amazon is the catalyst event only here.. a big one, yes, but a trigger event, not the main event once this is all done and said for. Let’s also not forget that Apple is still buzzing a few control towers as well, looking for a new runway to call an annexed home. We have the talent pool here for both. The DMV is right up there with San Jose and the best of Sillycon Valley when it comes to tech talent.

Ashburn. Well let’s take a look back at the past 10 years. Namely Brambleton area. We hit a massive recession. What happens? Toll Brothers invaded and doubles down on Loudoun Valley Estates. Sells like crazy. Sequestration? Hello Willowsford. Vacancy statistics up and down the toll road around Reston and Herndon hitting in the 20%’s for office space on that post 9/11 product (meaning less jobs there), yet prices climb in Ashburn while inventory tries to keep up with demand. In fact, interesting here, what you could buy in Brambleton in 2011, is now what you can buy near western side of Leesburg (12 miles away).
Yes, I think Amazon effect will play a role. Not quite as dramatic as if it were going to the CIT site, but there will be some seen influence for Loudoun via Crystal City.

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by NC211

I’m guessing you skipped the first week of economics 101.. it’s called supply/demand.

Let’s not all forget here that it’s not just Amazon, but the inevitable support businesses that will follow and feed from Amazon too.

One of the big questions is where do the support businesses go? In CC itself (AMZN wil not take ALL the empty space there, and it looks like they plan to move into new buildings in Pentagon City in a few years, so releasing some of their CC space maybe?) ? In Potomac Yard in Alexandria? In North Arlington? Tysons? Dulles area? DC or Md?

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by NC211

Ashburn. Well let’s take a look back at the past 10 years. Namely Brambleton area. We hit a massive recession. What happens? Toll Brothers invaded and doubles down on Loudoun Valley Estates. Sells like crazy. Sequestration? Hello Willowsford. Vacancy statistics up and down the toll road around Reston and Herndon hitting in the 20%’s for office space on that post 9/11 product (meaning less jobs there), yet prices climb in Ashburn while inventory tries to keep up with demand. In fact, interesting here, what you could buy in Brambleton in 2011, is now what you can buy near western side of Leesburg (12 miles away).
Yes, I think Amazon effect will play a role. Not quite as dramatic as if it were going to the CIT site, but there will be some seen influence for Loudoun via Crystal City.

Isn't that because of people commuting from Ashburn to Tysons, which has had a pretty strong office market?

[NC211]

Originally Posted by brooklynborndad

Isn't that because of people commuting from Ashburn to Tysons, which has had a pretty strong office market?

Tysons is certainly a massive drawl (I live in leesburg and work in Tysons myself). But many others go further in as well. Have neighbors who have for the past 15 years commuted by car from Leesburg to downtown DC every day. Kids go to school downtown as well. I personally don't get it, life's too short for that nightmare scenario, but they seem to be ok with it. We hardly see them. They don't want to move closer because they can't get the same amount of house they have now (original owners since 2000).


Silver Line is going to be interesting on the area. I think it has potential to be a game changer myself for Ashburn. Not so much for Reston and areas past Dulles to the east, but for us, I think so..


I'm not sure where the feeder companies will locate. I'm willing to bet many in CC as space permits though. But I'm curious to see how HQ2 and AWS blend together here over the coming few years. Given top secret clearance requirements, it seems to make sense to me to relocate those folks closer to the Pentagon location, eventually. But who really knows.


If Apple hits here on the VA side....oh dear lord, are we all screwed traffic-wise. I'll be commuting via my son's electric scooter...

[Abraham Walker]

Anyone else feels like this announcement was a hype fest for our area?

1. Amazon's presence puts a small dent in the commercial vacancy in the National Landing area.

2. The reports are starting to show a modest increase in the price of homes in the area.

[Piney Creek]

Originally Posted by Abraham Walker

Anyone else feels like this announcement was a hype fest for our area?

1. Amazon's presence puts a small dent in the commercial vacancy in the National Landing area.

2. The reports are starting to show a modest increase in the price of homes in the area.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "hype fest" but if what you're saying is Nova got an incredible amount of promotion out of all this, yeah. I agree. And I'm all for it! I like seeing our corner of the world being presented as desirable, especially to millennials and techies. Not that it wasn't before, but getting hype like this is like getting an extra dollop of whipped cream on your pudding. If the "Amazon effect" turns out to be mostly hype, that's ok too. Even if only 50% of the hype actually happens, the effect of having it here is positive.