Advise on housing and location in Nova (Arlington, Alexandria: sale, 2015)

[RethinkTwiceForOnce]

Hello folks,

I'm contemplating whether or not I should be buying a house in Nova in the next 6 months and where specifically would be a good choice location wise given my budget and lifestyle. It would be great help to hear perspectives from members on this forum as I've seen the quality of response after reading though many posts. This post would very likely help many millennial in their early to mid 30's that are in a similar situation.

First here are my circumstances.

- I've lived in Nova area for over 10 years and I'm currently renting in South Arlington. I've also lived in other popular areas within Nova. Rent right now is $1500.

- Recently married and plan on having a family in a year time. Wife doesn't plan to work after having kids (her choice) and I'm happy about that. She will start working again after kid start school in the future.

- My total compensation is 130k before taxes. I'm not counting wife's current or future income for mortgage/living expenses.

- My work allows me flexible hours so I can avoid Nova traffic i.e. either get into office around 11 am or around 5 am. I also have option to telework once a week. So my commute is roughly 25 min to Tysons every day.


So here are my questions.

1. Given the current housing market temperature and the Amazon effect in Nova it's a heavy sellers’ market. Would it be wise to wait a year or may be even two years before we start house hunting? Perhaps to see if the temperature cools off and we get better bang for our buck? We are in no rush to buy and we can wait.

2. Our budget in my opinion shouldn't be more than 350k - 400k. Perhaps stretch it to 450k for better schooling. Do you agree given the income? Wife and I have a very low key lifestyle. We are very paranoid about debt in general. We have no credit card debt, car or student loans. Right now I save roughly 5k a month. I can put down 20% and can cover up to one year of expenses from a rainy day fund. Obviously there will be more expenses as we start a family so I'm accounting for that as well going forward as I won't be able to save the way I'm doing now.

3. Which area should I target within Nova? I'd say our number one priority is good public school from elementary all the way up to high school as we can't afford private schools. Centerville, Chantilly, Ashburn seem like good options. Arlington is out of question as it's expensive.

4. Given our budget, I think a 3 bedroom townhouse would be more than enough. I'm not very found of condos and high HOA fees that i see in some listings in Zillow/Redfin. Recently built townhouses may be out of question for us with our Budget so we would be looking at older townhouse. How much should be kept in savings for maintenance from your experience in older townhomes?

5. It would be nice to be close to supermarkets and strip malls but that may not be possible and we’re ok with that. Right now, I can take a bus to Ballston Metro within 20 min time not that I use it often. We’re fine not being close to metro as both wife and I drive.

So I'd love to hear your feedback, put yourself in my shoes given the circumstances I've described above. What would you do? I've greatly admire if you can point out some zip codes that I can start looking given my priorities.

Also, sometimes I worry if I'm making a good financial decision because I'd be taking on roughly 300k-350k debt as I've never taken a significant debt like this before. Back in 08 and 09 when the housing bubble popped, I saw many people lost their jobs and ended up in foreclosure losing their down payment. At times I think I should save up and buy in cash in the next 5 years. Am I just being too paranoid?

Thank you!

[boyd888]

No one knows what housing will do, but I do think the "amazon effect" is greatly overestimated. They're only looking to a hire a couple hundred people this year and several million live in NOVA already.

Budget is fine for your income, but as you are aware $350K is on the low end. Ashburn Farm 20147 Reston 20191 Herndon corridor I think you could find something under $450K. Burke 22015 has lots of THs with not bad commute to Tysons, but you will get a lot more for your money further west.

I'd scratch Centreville to avoid I-66. Check HOA fees too some THs can be actual condos with $250+ monthly fees.

[Hal Roach]

This is about as good as you could do in that price range, but you would be at the lower end of FCPS. I knew the original owners of this house. It was an estate sale, non-probate, and listed for 469, before closing at 445. Full basement is not counted in sf. Might have a lot of strangers showing up to use the pool. Express bus to the Pentagon across the street. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...19636495_zpid/

[sonnymarkjiz]

Originally Posted by boyd888

No one knows what housing will do, but I do think the "amazon effect" is greatly overestimated. They're only looking to a hire a couple hundred people this year and several million live in NOVA already.

Budget is fine for your income, but as you are aware $350K is on the low end. Ashburn Farm 20147 Reston 20191 Herndon corridor I think you could find something under $450K. Burke 22015 has lots of THs with not bad commute to Tysons, but you will get a lot more for your money further west.

I'd scratch Centreville to avoid I-66. Check HOA fees too some THs can be actual condos with $250+ monthly fees.

I agree with this. Only realtors are hyping up Amazon...besides that, nobody else really cares about it. I've seen some landlords/sellers get greedy and try to raise prices like they did in San Francisco but it's laughable to compare Amazon to that, and I see many places sitting because people are getting too greedy.

I'd avoid Centreville because 66 is a disaster and I'd rather deal with the Dulles Toll Road than that. With your flexible schedule, somewhere like Sterling or Ashburn would be good for you. The townhomes in Ashburn that are 10 years old or so go for around 350-400 K for a 3 bedroom and the schools are rated very highly there. Plus, you have Rt 7 or the Toll Road that will be basically clear with your flexible schedule.

Other areas I'd suggest is the Springfield part of Alexandria near Kingstowne. The houses are older than Ashburn, but idk if the schools are as good or not.

[Middlin]

No one has a crystal ball as far as home prices, but rates are very, very good right now. I don't believe that waiting will work in your favor with respect to that. I think Burke and Springfield are going to be your best bet within your price range and good schools. West Springfield HS, Robinson and Lake Braddock

[Old Dominionite]

I second Burke (22015) and West Springfield (22152) as ideal options.

[RethinkTwiceForOnce]

Originally Posted by boyd888

No one knows what housing will do, but I do think the "amazon effect" is greatly overestimated. They're only looking to a hire a couple hundred people this year and several million live in NOVA already.

Budget is fine for your income, but as you are aware $350K is on the low end. Ashburn Farm 20147 Reston 20191 Herndon corridor I think you could find something under $450K. Burke 22015 has lots of THs with not bad commute to Tysons, but you will get a lot more for your money further west.

I'd scratch Centreville to avoid I-66. Check HOA fees too some THs can be actual condos with $250+ monthly fees.

Thanks for the reply. I'm checking out Ashburn farm now and they seem to fit the bill. I found some around 375k - 425k ranges. I'll continue to explore this along with Reston/Burke.

Agreed on high HOA fees with condo type TH and I've heard this multiple times so I'd be sure to avoid Centreville.

Thanks again.

[RethinkTwiceForOnce]

Originally Posted by Hal Roach

This is about as good as you could do in that price range, but you would be at the lower end of FCPS. I knew the original owners of this house. It was an estate sale, non-probate, and listed for 469, before closing at 445. Full basement is not counted in sf. Might have a lot of strangers showing up to use the pool. Express bus to the Pentagon across the street. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...19636495_zpid/

Interesting find. Thanks for sharing.

[RethinkTwiceForOnce]

Originally Posted by sonnymarkjiz

I agree with this. Only realtors are hyping up Amazon...besides that, nobody else really cares about it. I've seen some landlords/sellers get greedy and try to raise prices like they did in San Francisco but it's laughable to compare Amazon to that, and I see many places sitting because people are getting too greedy.

I'd avoid Centreville because 66 is a disaster and I'd rather deal with the Dulles Toll Road than that. With your flexible schedule, somewhere like Sterling or Ashburn would be good for you. The townhomes in Ashburn that are 10 years old or so go for around 350-400 K for a 3 bedroom and the schools are rated very highly there. Plus, you have Rt 7 or the Toll Road that will be basically clear with your flexible schedule.

Other areas I'd suggest is the Springfield part of Alexandria near Kingstowne. The houses are older than Ashburn, but idk if the schools are as good or not.

Yup, no one can look into the future or we all would be rich There are always talks of potential recession or slow down economic growth in the near 12 - 18 months by the economist (who have been predicting that since 2018 without any luck.

in Amazon's case, well the Relators need to make as many sale as possible whatever can grease the wheel better.

And yeah, Ashburn or Sterling are pretty good options, I've driven by route 7 to Leesburg couple times during the weekdays in the afternoon going west at 2 pm or 3 pm and no traffic.

I appreciate your feedback. Thanks!

[RethinkTwiceForOnce]

Originally Posted by Middlin

West Springfield HS, Robinson and Lake Braddock

Thanks for the mention. I'll look further into it.