NOVA housing going up or going down ? Difficult to understand

[Finallystoppedlurking]

Originally Posted by sonnymarkjiz

Brooklynborddad hit the nail in the head. Take a drive down the 267 Toll Road and count how many big companies you'll see...it's a lot. Many companies that were based in DC are moving some of their offices towards the Dulles Tech Corridor. Tyson's, Reston, Herndon, and Ashburn have seen some major companies moving out that way like Raytheon, BAE Systems, Booz, Amazon Web Services, etc. building offices in that region in the last decade.

There are already some major developments coming up along the new Silver Line stops, as well. I know quite a few people who live in Ashburn or Brambleton who work in Chantilly/Reston/Herndon and never really need to go to DC.

A few years ago, you could buy a townhouse for 400K-500K in Reston. Nowadays, new build townhomes are going for nearly a million.
https://www.redfin.com/VA/Reston/198...home/114009600

and this is what i tell all my techie friends... there is no reason to be unemployed in this area between cdc and industry work. Hell Walmart IT is off the toll road. Most people i live around in ashburn work from home or travel 15 mins to chantilly or reston. rare to find to many people out here commuting to the distric but it happens.

On the flipside these very same people who do commute to reston/chantilly are waiting for the silver line...

then they don't have to take the stupid toll road or ox road or 50 or some backstreets around the aforementioned....

[Finallystoppedlurking]

Originally Posted by NOVA_guy

Interesting piece.

I don't have a crystal ball so who knows what will happen, with real estate you can't predict these things but I think with the farther out suburbs, the prices are starting to level out and have/will hit a ceiling eventually while Arlington, DC and Alexandria (McLean and Falls Church as well) continue to rise exponentially. Again, that's not to say Loudoun isn't a nice place to live but the evidence points to less and less people wanting to live that far out and wanting to be in/as close as possible to the city. This is also happening nationally, not just here so it's important to look at the trends.

I think Amazon is only going to exacerbate this as we're already starting to see.

i recently took a road trip down through richmond and norfolk onward....

downtown richmond and norfolk are going to major rejuvination and bird scooters are everywhere... all to day that there are a group.. thats not with the commuting lifestyle at all and are making their mark.

we joke at work saying city planners must have gone to a national gentrification convention because.... there are dog shampoos now in SE dc and art districts down south.. if the schools improve these locations will be unaffordable in the near future as the parents with families move in...

as far as loudoun... people are stll moving out there... in droves.. prices keep going up... in some sections more than others. Aldie and broadlands/bram, on loudoun seem to be thriving. other locations.. not so much.

[Finallystoppedlurking]

Originally Posted by NOVAmtneer82

That's one thing I've been noticing lately- the high prices farther out. They've never been 'cheap' in the 15 years I've been here but it used to be one could move out to Loudoun and save not only a huge chunk of change on a home but also get brand new construction and a sizable increase in square feet. You can still get the new construction part but even prices of townhouses out that way are insane. At least in eastern Loudoun. We at one point considered a move out there but with the commute not getting any better and the high prices on the Greenway, Toll Road and 66 if solo commuting - plus prices that aren't significantly lower, the decision was made to stay in Arlington.

we jumped out to the lou before the metro signs went up. the house we bought seemingly is 100k more in 9 months from what i can see. SFHs in aldie are now starting in the mid 600-high sevens. I remember when it was 500k.. and not much more that pwc....

what we also have noted is the shift towards townhouses over sfh.... there are some very nice models being built for what seems to be the mental downsizing trend and they aren't cheap.

[sonnymarkjiz]

Originally Posted by Finallystoppedlurking

we jumped out to the lou before the metro signs went up. the house we bought seemingly is 100k more in 9 months from what i can see. SFHs in aldie are now starting in the mid 600-high sevens. I remember when it was 500k.. and not much more that pwc....

what we also have noted is the shift towards townhouses over sfh.... there are some very nice models being built for what seems to be the mental downsizing trend and they aren't cheap.

Yeah, it's crazy how fast Aldie is growing. I remember back in 2010, it was nothing out there and brand new SF homes were being built for 400k. Nowadays, the SF homes are pushing a mil. There's this one neighborhood called Willowsford and the homes out there are crazy big. Really nice neighborhood, but again, it's def more even suburbia than even Reston and Ashburn are.

[dkf747]

Originally Posted by Finallystoppedlurking

and this is what i tell all my techie friends... there is no reason to be unemployed in this area between cdc and industry work. Hell Walmart IT is off the toll road. Most people i live around in ashburn work from home or travel 15 mins to chantilly or reston. rare to find to many people out here commuting to the distric but it happens.

On the flipside these very same people who do commute to reston/chantilly are waiting for the silver line...

then they don't have to take the stupid toll road or ox road or 50 or some backstreets around the aforementioned....

There's still a great many Ashburners (and beyond) heading to a job in DC. I see them heading for Route 7 or the Toll Road often. I'm sure many get off at Tysons, but I think many are hitting the Beltway headed for the GW Parkway. Neither of us have actual numbers, but I have no doubt that many are doing it. My daughter got ac job in DC recently. She did the commute for 2 weeks and then moved to Arlington. I used to do Ashburn to Rockville, and it was obvious I wasn't alone. You figure it out when you see the same car on the Beltway that you passed on Waxpool a while ago. I don't dispute that many now work in Reston, Herndon, and other nearby locations, just like we do now. I just wonder what the actual numbers are. I wonder if anyone knows?