What do you guys think of Annandale? (Arlington, Alexandria: sales, real estate market)

[drizzleton]

I've spent my whole life here and think it's a great place to live. but I often here people from other parts of Fairfax co. call it ghetto and trashy, or talk about the day laberors along rt. 236 and how they ruin the "downtown" area. Or they say that we're infested with gangs. Sure, A-town has some gang issues in certain apartment complexes (which make up a VERY small portion of the entire Annandale area) but it's no worse than Falls Church, Springfield, Arlington or Alexandria, and ESPECIALLY not as bad as the route 1 corridor. There are a ton of really nice, quiet, upscale neigborhoods here, especially west of 495 near NOVA, the houses off of Hummer road, or Braddock road between backlick and 236.

What do you folks think of Annandale?

[SaratL]

In my opinion, Annandale is just fine. I think most parents shy away because of middle school and High school or because the houses are not new and one can get a newer/bigger house out west where there are lots of kids etc. The apartments on 236 and the day laborer is definitely an issue (I think it is also an issue in Herndon etc) but there are many nice houses in Annadale on Hummer, behind Fairfax hospital etc. It is close to everything - beltway, Bike Trail, Dunn Loring metro, Hospital, Lot of Doctors offices, Tysons, Fairfax Trader Joes, Both airports, DC (I used to take kids to DC museums, Kennedy Center etc all the time which I doubt I could have done if I lived far west). We were never crazy about living in a community with tons of kids or living in crowded suburbia or commuting for hours so Annadale worked just fine for us.

[FindingZen]

The retail area on and near 236 isn't real pretty but I agree that there are a lot of nice neighborhoods there, especially as one gets out to the NVCC campus.

[car54]

My parents moved to Annandale in 1949. Their friends in Arlington thought they were NUTS for leaving civilization to homestead in the wild frontier of Annandale! Back then NOVA consisted of Arlington and Alexandria. They built their house off Hummer Rd, just inside the Beltway. Oh wait, the Beltway wouldn't be built for another 12 years or so. Little River Turnpike and Columbia Pike were 2-lanes...one in each direction.

I've lived here my entire life (pushin' 60!) and it sure has changed. I don't begrudge the guys hanging out at 7-11 looking for work, they are just trying to survive. I blame the Federal Gov't for not enforcing immigration laws. I'm convinced that the powers that be want that cheap labor, and will never get serious about illegal immigration.

The apartments mentioned caused an uproar when they were built in the 60's. Especially Fairmont Gardens and Carl Freeman's Americana Fairfax on Heritage Drive. Folks said, "There goes the neighborhood!". They'd be spinning in their graves if they could see those complexes now!

The gang thing is overblown, in my opinion. They're mostly kids of immigrants that work numerous jobs to get by. The gang is these kids' "family". Plus, they mainly just mess with each other, not the public at large.

Despite it's flaws, I think Annandale is still a great place to live. (especially if you like Korean food!)

[jackmcmahon]

Originally Posted by drizzleton

I've spent my whole life here and think it's a great place to live. but I often here people from other parts of Fairfax co. call it ghetto and trashy, or talk about the day laberors along rt. 236 and how they ruin the "downtown" area. Or they say that we're infested with gangs. Sure, A-town has some gang issues in certain apartment complexes (which make up a VERY small portion of the entire Annandale area) but it's no worse than Falls Church, Springfield, Arlington or Alexandria, and ESPECIALLY not as bad as the route 1 corridor. There are a ton of really nice, quiet, upscale neigborhoods here, especially west of 495 near NOVA, the houses off of Hummer road, or Braddock road between backlick and 236.

What do you folks think of Annandale?

Lets put it this way: anyone who bought in Arlington is very happy with their current property values compared to Annandale.

[NC211]

As someone who has an inside view of the commercial real estate investment activity of DC in general, Annandale, in my opinion, is probably close to the top of the list for the investment dollars to flow back into when the cycle returns. Why do I say this? Merrifield is going through it's rejuvenation process right now, with a few billion going into it for new retail, high-end residential apartments, and office. Fairview Park is coming up to higher occupancy levels, with some older buildings being completely renovated to Class A quality for Class A tenants for 20 year leases. I know this, because I've financed a lot of this stuff in my career. Annadale is on the development radar. What is happening in the area now, are projects that got committed to prior to 2008, and got stalled by the economy. They're now going forward. The addition of the Silver Line into Tysons will also start pulling high quality tenants back out of the downtown market. Many jumped from Tysons in 07-08 for reduced rent levels in the CBD, thinking this was their chance to get a "bargain". BUT, what has happened since then is that DC emerged as the safest commercial real estate market in the world. This has caused a huge bubble in the downtown market. An investor makes his money one of two ways in CRE. Either from the rent, or the sale. The rent income is what we call the capitalization rate "cap rate". The lower this rate, the lower the rental net income to the buyer, which puts more pressure on the future "sale"'component to make the money. For the past 10 years, the cap rate for downtown DC investors (office) has usually been in the 6-7% window, with a few true trophy quality assets dipping into the 5.75% range. Over the past 18 months however, the cap rate has fallen through the floor to about 4%. Say a property generates an annual revenue stream of $10 million a year. Divide that number by 6%, and you have the sales price for a property in 2007. Say that same property cut rents in 2008 to protect occupantcy to now generate a revenue stream of say $7 million a year. Divide that number by 4% to see what is going on right now. Pretty easy to predict the future for Annadale now. These investors who are buying these buildings in downtown, have no choice but to dramatically increase rents to a point where a normal 6% cap rate makes then money when they sell the asset. How does this help Annadales future?

Tysons knows this math, and they're scrambling to get ready for the exadus of tenants back to the area from the increasing costs of downtown DC. The Silver Line will allow office tenants to use the metro for meetings. Old stock that was vacated in 08 for cheaper fancy digs downtown has taken advantage of the open space to renovate to modern levels. Several apartment projects are underway at the Dunn Loring metro stop, including one about to happen right at the stop where the surface parking lot is (dont worry, you're getting a brand new parking garage with several hundred more spaces than what's there now). Big name retailers are coming into the area, like Harris Teeter and Whole Foods. Fed Gov tenants are heading their now too along Arlington Blvd and others in Fairview Park. When rents go up in the CBd, this activity is going to triple! This is the "jobs" spot in the city in about 3 years. Jobs are excellent for housing conditions. Annadale is strongly poised to become a high-end "subdivision" for all of this. When the dollars start showing up in Annadale, zoning and law enforcement will chase out the gang activity. Trust me, nobody is going to commit $200M for a new luxury apartment building or redu retail centers to class A quality without the firm commitment behind closed doors from those who can make change, happen. It's coming for Annadale. I'm willing to bet you won't recognize the area in about 10 years...

[brooklynborndad]

1. Annandale sure IS a mixed bag, with hidden semi rural feeling streets a couple of blocks from LRT, among other things

2. actually the main day laborer site is NOT in the downtown, but on the western edge

3. while the retail area on LRT shows some of the worst mistakes of 1950s/1960s suburban commercial development, there is change already happening, on a small scale - look at the new, award winning, TD bank branch

4. While there is debate about the local schools, its damned convenient to the high school that must not be named. Not that that affects many RE decisions

5. I continue to go back and forth about whether there will be large scale redevelopment absent a rail line, which I dont see coming any time soon. The convenience of the location is great, but so far almost all large scale redevelopment of older suburbs in the region has been associated with much better transit access. OTOH the county certainly does seem to INTEND to have redevelopment in downtown Annandale. but, OTOH, it does look to me like Tysons is going to soak up a LOT of the demand for office space near the beltway.

6. I am still not sure what the impact of the completed beltway HOT lanes will be. It will certainly make Annandale closer to Tysons in minutes than it is now, and will make it far more competitive for commuters to Tysons with places located west of Tysons. OTOH there will be no direct access to the HOT lanes from LRT - the nearest access will be Braddock, and that area will like be more impacted

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by jackmcmahon

Lets put it this way: anyone who bought in Arlington is very happy with their current property values compared to Annandale.

or compared to PWC. Or even compared to Loudoun, I suspect. Someone who bought in the transitioning nabes of DC is even happier.

[Carlingtonian]

We have two sets of friends who just moved to Annandale after returning from overseas postings with the feds. The neighborhoods are nice--quiet, with big trees, and attractive houses. The houses are not my all-time favorites (prewar Capes, Colonials, bungalows, and Spanish Colonials)--mostly 1960s split-levels. But they seem very spacious and are pretty in a Brady Bunch kinda way.

The only issue is the longer commute to DC, compared to Arl or Alex. These folks drive or take a bus to the Metro.

[azb]

We bought in Annandale a litle over a year ago, and have been pleased with the decision--despite the fact that Annandale was not even on our list when we started looking. The advantages to Annandale seem to be:

1. Some very nice neighborhoods--we live in the Hillbrook Tall Oaks neighborhood that has large lots, lots of trees, and lots of school aged kids for my son to play with. No gang or crime problems that I have seen in my neighborhood.

2. A decent commute to almost anywhere. I have a half an hour commute to the Pentagon, can get to Andrews AFB in about the same time, and most major shopping areas (Tysons, Pentagon City, Ballston) are only 15 minutes away.

3. Diversity. To some this is a disadvantage. Each to their own. To us, this is one of the delights of living here. Forget the Korea Town stereotype. This place is really diverse. No single ethnic group (Asian, White, Black, Hispanic) has more than 30% of my son's elementary school population, and kids come from all over the world. International Night at the school is a great deal of fun, and my first grader knows a lot more about the world than I did in high school.

4. Schools. Fairfax County schools, by national standards, are the best of the best. We don't have the test scores of the outer-burbs or wealthier (and less diverse) parts of NOVA, but if you look at the test scores in our pyramid (Columbia, Poe, Annandale) in light of the demographics, it looks like they "over-achieve" given the demographics. And I found very telling that the Wakefield Forest parents were actually upset about leaving Annandale HS to go to the "better" Woodson HS (which is agreat HS that serves much of Annandale, by the way). All I know is that my son has a very impressive, involved teacher at a school with an outstanding principal.

5. Cost. Perhaps because of the stereotypes, we found housing much more affordable here.

By the way, I bet folks living all over NOVA can make similar claims about where they live. True. The bottom-line is that there are real great neighborhoods all over NOVA and you shouldn't let stereotypes drive where you look to live.