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I still don't think it worth the money. It will only draw riders from the existing SS line (which itself needs to be more fully rehabbed). And the existing line loses money. A new line would lose even more. If we are going to spend money on transportation projects, we need to be connecting and fixing up our existing roadways, which everybody uses. SS trains would only be used by downtown commuters, which are a minority.
I still think express buses are more cost effective. The can be located where ever a parking lot can be leased. Buses are easily hired out, and pick up locations can come and go as needed. A train station cannot move and they can never be in every town. And you would not need to hire more government workers, it can all be out sourced at much lower cost.
They could either run to SS stations or directly downtown, or go places the SS can't go, like other locations like Naperville, Schaumburg, Oak Brook or other job centers. Routes are easy to add or delete.
The studies they use are always overblown. Five trains in and out a day aren't ever going to generate that kind of money. If it could Hammond, East Chicago, Gary would look far different then they do.
Sorry to rain on the parade. I am a train nut myself, but the finance just doesn't add up for a win.
Wait, rich, what do you mean "it will only draw riders from the existing SS line"? It will draw riders from the existing line and a ton more than that. It may not draw any new riders who currently take a different METRA train in Illinois, that is possible... not sure if that's maybe what you meant. But it'll add an enormous amount of people who currently drive downtown but would prefer to ride the train if a station was closer to home, and I'm one of them.
One thing I'm not sure of is how these studies can truly be done with any real confidence? I'm glad to see the numbers are strong enough to make a real push here and to qualify for federal funds, but I'd be very interested to see how they end up at those "potential ridership" numbers. How, for example, can you quantify the amount of people that currently work in NWI that would be willing to look for work in the city if a station was closeby AND actually get hired at a new job. How do you quantify the amount of people from Illinois that will see NWI as a more attractive place that will move there in the future and will take the train to work every day?
Wait, rich, what do you mean "it will only draw riders from the existing SS line"? It will draw riders from the existing line and a ton more than that. It may not draw any new riders who currently take a different METRA train in Illinois, that is possible... not sure if that's maybe what you meant. But it'll add an enormous amount of people who currently drive downtown but would prefer to ride the train if a station was closer to home, and I'm one of them.
One thing I'm not sure of is how these studies can truly be done with any real confidence? I'm glad to see the numbers are strong enough to make a real push here and to qualify for federal funds, but I'd be very interested to see how they end up at those "potential ridership" numbers. How, for example, can you quantify the amount of people that currently work in NWI that would be willing to look for work in the city if a station was closeby AND actually get hired at a new job. How do you quantify the amount of people from Illinois that will see NWI as a more attractive place that will move there in the future and will take the train to work every day?
Example: St. John resident works downtown. Drives up 41 and ends up getting on the South Shore at the East Chicago or Hammond station. New station opens in Dyer, yeah, shorter drive for him. He stops using the East Chicago or Hammond station. Net gain to system , Zero. He is not a new rider. But we just spent a huge amount of tax dollars we don't have to make his drive shorter.
Would more people start working downtown. The best answer anybody can say is: maybe....... Frankly, I don't see it happening. If you were starting a business with your own money with those odds, I would guess you wouldn't.
Here is the reasons why I say that closer trains won't increase downtown employment, at least not enough to be spending a billion plus and operating expenses forever.
1. The biggest problem is, not only do we have to attract riders to the new line, we have to attract riders to replace the riders that will be using the new line instead of the old, because it is closer to home. Riders from Highland, Munster, Dyer, Schererville, Griffith, St. John, Cedar Lake, Lowell, Lansing, Lynwood will all stop using the existing line. The northern communities aren't growing, they are actually still losing population, so getting new riders from those cities will be tough. As it is, I think most SS riders live in the suburbs, not the cities of NWI. Keep in mind, as it is, the SS uses tax dollars to fill its budget. Riders don't come close to paying for it. Less riders will only increase the losses.
2. Contrary to popular belief, downtown employment is not increasing, it is actually decreasing. Downtown residency is increasing a bit (other wise Chicago would have been down 300k people instead of 250k people), but not employment. So even if you want a job downtown, you haven't found a job yet, and your chances are not getting better.
3. Most people in Northwest Indiana, also contrary to popular belief, do not work in Chicago or even Illinois. They would rather have better roads or transit within NWI.
4. We will always be off the radar for the majority of Chicagoland. No amount of ad campaigns or a train line will change that. Even though we may be closer to places then the places people move to, the perception will remain. I know what I am talking about, I sold real estate. Many people are willing to pay the Illinois premium, even though they aren't getting anything for it.
Its hard to use a study to figure use. I think the best study would be express buses. Its really the only way to truly test if enough people would use a new line.
Another thought is: If most of the riders are from the suburbs, and we want the train closer. Build the new line and shut down the existing line.
Example: St. John resident works downtown. Drives up 41 and ends up getting on the South Shore at the East Chicago or Hammond station. New station opens in Dyer, yeah, shorter drive for him. He stops using the East Chicago or Hammond station. Net gain to system , Zero. He is not a new rider. But we just spent a huge amount of tax dollars we don't have to make his drive shorter.
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Without disagreeing with you, this doesn't quite fit my mentality. I work downtown, but refuse to take the train because simply how far the East Chicago/Hammond stations are from me. I can't justify driving that far from Dyer AND then taking a train. I would consider a train ride if the station was that close to me.
Seeing as though I'll be in Cedar Lake in a few months from now it is kind of a mute point. It would be amazing to see that Munster/Dyer Station as well as the Lowell & Valpo stations come to fruition though as loosely planned. I could see training to the city for work as well as training to Valpo for recreation. Valparaiso has an abundance of activities that me and family love to utilize. I could see Chicago residents training down to enjoy the non-city hustle bustle some weekends as well.
Example: St. John resident works downtown. Drives up 41 and ends up getting on the South Shore at the East Chicago or Hammond station. New station opens in Dyer, yeah, shorter drive for him. He stops using the East Chicago or Hammond station. Net gain to system , Zero. He is not a new rider. But we just spent a huge amount of tax dollars we don't have to make his drive shorter.
The incremental benefit/source of additional income/tax base is not targeting the current South Shore riders. You're right that in your example this individual from St. John would be a net zero gain to the system. It's for new riders.
Would more people start working downtown. The best answer anybody can say is: maybe....... Frankly, I don't see it happening. If you were starting a business with your own money with those odds, I would guess you wouldn't.
Maybe? You put a train station within 5-10 mins to someone's home instead of 20-25 mins with direct access to Chicago and you truly think it is possible that zero more people are inclined to take advantage of that asset? C'mon. IMO, what is in question is HOW MANY new riders there would be, not whether there WOULD BE new riders at all.
Here is the reasons why I say that closer trains won't increase downtown employment, at least not enough to be spending a billion plus and operating expenses forever.
Cost is estimated at $571 million, up to half of which would be paid for with federal funds through the FTA's New Starts program. So, maybe somewhere in the ballpark of $275-300m of local funding, the sources of which have already been determined. Not a billion.
1. The biggest problem is, not only do we have to attract riders to the new line, we have to attract riders to replace the riders that will be using the new line instead of the old, because it is closer to home. Riders from Highland, Munster, Dyer, Schererville, Griffith, St. John, Cedar Lake, Lowell, Lansing, Lynwood will all stop using the existing line. The northern communities aren't growing, they are actually still losing population, so getting new riders from those cities will be tough. As it is, I think most SS riders live in the suburbs, not the cities of NWI. Keep in mind, as it is, the SS uses tax dollars to fill its budget. Riders don't come close to paying for it. Less riders will only increase the losses.
You're right about the northern communities. That's not where the ridership growth potential is at. The potential for ridership growth is in the central or southern part of Lake County in the, as you label them, "suburbs". It doesn't matter where the new riders are being attracted from, and I would agree that the northern Lake County towns won't have any type of added ridership in the near future. That's why the projections for ridership growth are coming from the Dyer extension area, where the population growth/stability actually resides.
2. Contrary to popular belief, downtown employment is not increasing, it is actually decreasing. Downtown residency is increasing a bit (other wise Chicago would have been down 300k people instead of 250k people), but not employment. So even if you want a job downtown, you haven't found a job yet, and your chances are not getting better.
No doubt that jobs aren't easy to come by in the current job market. Isn't that why it would make the most sense to give NWI residents the most opportunity to land a job by providing them quicker and more direct access to the city? Then, residents in this area have the option of working closer to home in NWI, or downtown, both within a reasonable commute. Right now, too many people who live in NWI are being limited to looking for work only within NWI/south burbs, because they don't want the 60-90 min travel time to the loop, and who can blame them? You may be right that Chicago employment numbers may be ticking down, but the fact remains that opening up a more viable option of working in Chicago to NWI residents has to expand their employment opportunities by what, 5-fold, 10-fold? Either way, the point is that in a tough job market, this would only HELP people to land a job as it would bring many more potential employment opportunities into people's realm of possibility.
3. Most people in Northwest Indiana, also contrary to popular belief, do not work in Chicago or even Illinois. They would rather have better roads or transit within NWI.
Just as there are more people in the Illinois suburbs of Chicago that do not work downtown. Yet, the METRA train system in Illinois is still very valuable to a huge amount of people and families.
4. We will always be off the radar for the majority of Chicagoland. No amount of ad campaigns or a train line will change that. Even though we may be closer to places then the places people move to, the perception will remain. I know what I am talking about, I sold real estate. Many people are willing to pay the Illinois premium, even though they aren't getting anything for it.
I agree that there will always be people who won't consider NWI regardless of how close we are to the city and how good our transportation infrastructure is. But on the other hand there are a lot of people who would consider Northwest Indiana if getting to the city was easier, many that I've talked to and worked with (obviously a small sample size but no reason to believe it's not representative of others).
Its hard to use a study to figure use. I think the best study would be express buses. Its really the only way to truly test if enough people would use a new line.
Another thought is: If most of the riders are from the suburbs, and we want the train closer. Build the new line and shut down the existing line.
Now this we totally agree on! However, as just two of the 10 NICTD Board members are from Lake County (and the others from Porter, LaPorte, or St. Joseph counties) I find it hard to believe this will even be considered. It would make complete sense from a financial and ridership count standpoint, but the politics behind it I don't think will allow it.
Thanks for your insight. My comments/responses are in red beneath yours.
Last edited by svillechris; 01-28-2014 at 09:35 AM..
I think that it is great that Schererville recognizes the benefits it would realize by being positioned close to two of the stations along the route. Depending on where in Schererville, the Munster or Dyer station could work.
I believe it would be great for Highland to contribute to this too as well as St. John especially because St. John is on the route and would eventually have a station after Munster and Dyer.
Think it is shortsighted for the Hammond mayor to oppose this. The Region can only benefit as a whole from this development.
anything that can start to draw more residents should be welcome, they will pay taxes and slowly learn about the positives of places like Hammond and even Gary (Miller Beach, Marquette Park etc,)
This is the perfect time for such a development. The burgeoning youth population downtown, will be more than interested in more train options from Indiana to Millenium Station once they settle down and start families. These are the suburbs best-positioned to catch their attention.
I think that it is great that Schererville recognizes the benefits it would realize by being positioned close to two of the stations along the route. Depending on where in Schererville, the Munster or Dyer station could work.
I believe it would be great for Highland to contribute to this too as well as St. John especially because St. John is on the route and would eventually have a station after Munster and Dyer.
I would have been much more surprised had the town of Schererville not chosen to contribute their share toward the project. They would probably be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Also, generally whatever helps Dyer, also will indirectly benefit Schererville.
I will be interested to see what Dyer Town Council's final decision is, whether to contribute their share or not. You'd think it would be a no-brainer, as one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, beneficiaries of a train line coming to Dyer. But I think there is a lot of opposition there. Pretty big "TEA Party" contingent in that town.
The thing I'm not so sure about is how they realistically expect each town in Lake County to contribute 34% of their economic development tax rev to this. If I lived in, for example, Lake Station, I would be opposed to my town's leadership contributing money to this. Towns in Lake County that are located far from this proposed line or within the current rail's proximity (i.e. northern or eastern Lake County) won't see a dime of benefit back to their communities.
I would have been much more surprised had the town of Schererville not chosen to contribute their share toward the project. They would probably be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Also, generally whatever helps Dyer, also will indirectly benefit Schererville.
I will be interested to see what Dyer Town Council's final decision is, whether to contribute their share or not. You'd think it would be a no-brainer, as one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, beneficiaries of a train line coming to Dyer. But I think there is a lot of opposition there. Pretty big "TEA Party" contingent in that town.
The thing I'm not so sure about is how they realistically expect each town in Lake County to contribute 34% of their economic development tax rev to this. If I lived in, for example, Lake Station, I would be opposed to my town's leadership contributing money to this. Towns in Lake County that are located far from this proposed line or within the current rail's proximity (i.e. northern or eastern Lake County) won't see a dime of benefit back to their communities.
I agree. Some of the areas that would support/not support the effort are somewhat predictable. The only area that I wonder about it Cedar Lake? I believe they would see some benefit to a line extended to Dyer (and even more if extended to St. John). They are on the line anyway and could reasonably expect the line to be extended through CL to Lowell in the future.
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