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I looks like the goals of the stay at home order have been met. New cases peaked in the third week of March and over 70% of CV cases have recovered. In the weeks before the March 22nd order our city and beaches were packed with tourist from all over the world. There was not an increase of new cases 10 to 14 days after the shut down as would be expected. The exact opposite happened. Number of active cases have steadily dropped to the point were we are now lowest in the nation. Yesterday 4/19 there were only 76 active cases on Oahu. Since the order last month, our unemployment is heading towards 50% and our local economy is now completely decimated. Does the political will exist to start opening up our state and restart our economy? Are we going to hold out until maybe there is a vaccine 12 to 18 months away? If we open up and there is a new surge in a few months do we shut it all down again?
I Imagine it will be after Memorial Day, before we see the stay-at home order cancelled. There will probable be a curfew in place like the last holiday we had, over the weekend. We will follow California and Nevada like said earlier.
Last edited by ScottStielow; 04-20-2020 at 06:02 PM..
Reason: Added information
I Imagine it will be after Memorial Day, before we see the stay-at home order cancelled. There will probable be a curfew in place like the last holiday we had, over the weekend. We will follow California and Nevada like said earlier.
If our cases continue to be low - I see the stay at home order lifted at the State level sometime between
May 5-15. Then the Counties will decide which I think that range is also likely, in my opinion.
The quarantine for arrivals ending I see in the range of May 31-June 30
If our cases continue to be low - I see the stay at home order lifted at the State level sometime between
May 5-15. Then the Counties will decide which I think that range is also likely, in my opinion.
The quarantine for arrivals ending I see in the range of May 31-June 30
Funny how you're more pessimistic than I was regarding the unemployment rate, but more optimistic regarding the arrivals. I hope you're correct in that quarantine would be lifted in that timeframe.
I really really think that the stay at home orders need some relaxing, especially if the cases stay low as the economy is getting annihilated right now. The problem is I doubt ige has enough leadership skills to make the right call one way or the other. If I had to guess, he'll lean towards being too conservative since he wouldn't want to be blamed for reopening the economy too early. But making that call would mean the economy would hurt that much more.
I really really think that the stay at home orders need some relaxing, especially if the cases stay low as the economy is getting annihilated right now. The problem is I doubt ige has enough leadership skills to make the right call one way or the other. If I had to guess, he'll lean towards being too conservative since he wouldn't want to be blamed for reopening the economy too early. But making that call would mean the economy would hurt that much more.
Yes! Exactly
The Ige strategy will be to defer decision making until the situation gets so out of hand that the feds have to step in to rescue. This is a quote from today's SA story, (Gradual lifting of Hawaii’s lockdown could start in a month) "The leadership team to produce Hawaii’s reopening plan was just formed and met for the first time Monday".
The virus peaked almost 3 weeks ago after a period of heavy tourism influx. We are down to zero new cases on Oahu as of Yesterday. One more month and we could start easing up on the lock-down. We are in big trouble.
Funny how you're more pessimistic than I was regarding the unemployment rate, but more optimistic regarding the arrivals. I hope you're correct in that quarantine would be lifted in that timeframe.
I can also be completely wrong on the timeframe - but if we make that timeframe tourism will be a small trickle.
Our dependence on lifting the quarantine is dependent on California and Nevada. When they open up - we can follow a couple of weeks later if it went ok.
We know weekend testing is slow - so no new cases on Oahu is great but might be an outlier - if we sustain that, the stay at home orders will lift sooner rather than later as it can't be justified.
What will be interesting - many workers with the paycheck protection program will be making more money unemployed with the extra $600 week on top of unemployment than actually working
I can also be completely wrong on the timeframe - but if we make that timeframe tourism will be a small trickle.
Our dependence on lifting the quarantine is dependent on California and Nevada. When they open up - we can follow a couple of weeks later if it went ok.
We know weekend testing is slow - so no new cases on Oahu is great but might be an outlier - if we sustain that, the stay at home orders will lift sooner rather than later as it can't be justified.
What will be interesting - many workers with the paycheck protection program will be making more money unemployed with the extra $600 week on top of unemployment than actually working
I dont think it's going to have a huge effect, to be honest. The PPP is too restrictive, and employees are not going to be happy getting put on the payroll making less money for 2 months, then going back on unemployment. The program should have given more flexibility to the employer to start up when they felt it's appropriate and use a deadline by the end of the year. Basically being used to kickstart businesses once the quarantines are lifted. But by forcing employers to pay employees as soon as the loan originates and having a termination date of 6/30/20, it really kills any effectiveness of the program.
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