Underdog politicking in special election (Columbus, Zanesville: college, gated, live in)

[Cida]

The special election in a region that stretches from the affluent suburbs of Columbus to the Appalachian foothills east of Zanesville could be the next big test of the vaunted “blue wave” brewing for November. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race a tossup.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/13/u...ion-house.html

[Natural510]

Tough to say for any election with the ridiculously gerrymandered congressional map in this state, and of course Putin's upcoming visit, surely before midterms.

[MillennialMaverick]

It's important to note that every major poll for the past 3 months, regardless of how close it tends to be, shows Balderson winning this election.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%2...election,_2018



In fact, the Green Party candidate seems to be taking away votes from O'Connor in a significant manner--as much as 5%. While it typically wouldn't be significant, when we consider the closeness of this race and the fact that O'Connor has yet to win any major poll, any voter split can be fatal--electorally speaking.


It's also important to consider that there are two extraordinary factors at play here that are undoubtedly influencing the vote:



1) There is no incumbent in a competitive seat, which tends to get the electorate riled up. Increases the sense of urgency, if you will. If Pat Tiberi didn't resign, I'll bet this seat--regardless of its relatively low partisan cook rating--wouldn't even be discussed, considering the comfortable margins he's always won by.



2) This district is mostly made up of suburban voters, whom President Trump has trouble resonating with. While unfair to the candidates, midterm elections tend to reflect how constituents feel about the President. These voters are Republican through and through, as evidenced by the counties' Presidential voting record, but Trump's appeal tends to resonate stronger with rural Republicans than suburban Republicans. In most cases, they still end up voting Republican--they may have issues with the character of the man at the helm, but the principles and policies are all the same.



Regardless, I feel Balderson will win both the special election in August and then the midterm election in November. Once he wins in August he'll have the advantage of incumbency and then he'll comfortably hold the seat.


All with a grain of salt, of course. We live in tumultuous times.

[floater]

I agree with the above. I am surprised people think it’s actually a toss up

[304eer]

Originally Posted by floater

I agree with the above. I am surprised people think it’s actually a toss up

It's not. Democrats are grasping at straws to try to drum up support. Balderson will win this by around 10%

[WRnative]

O'Connor seems to have serious momentum -- the most recent poll shows Balderson favored by just one percent. The key likely will be the turn-out by Democratic Party voters, Independents, and the Trump base, respectively. Key issues may be Medicaid expansion, restricting gun rights for those judged dangerous, and raising Social Security and Medicare eligibility ages.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nnor-6594.html

O'Connor is a moderate Democrat, but unlike the Republican Balderson, O'Connor supports the Affordable Care Act and opposes rolling back the Medicaid expansion, which has been vehemently opposed by Republicans in the Ohio legislature, including Balderson. Republican Gov. Kasich, who formerly represented this Congressional district in Congress, supports Medicaid expansion in Ohio and did an end-around his Republican Party in order to enact it. Kasich emphasizes that Medicaid expansion is vital to combating the severe Opioid Crisis in Ohio. Normally Republican parts of this district have been ravaged by the Opioid Crisis.

<<But Balderson says Washington, D.C., “Republicans ran on repealing Obamacare, and it’s time they make true on their word.”

But opposing the ACA and its Medicaid expansion, in particular, may not play well in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, which was once represented by popular Ohio Republican Gov. John Kasich, who approved of Medicaid expansion.>>

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bruceja.../#37394b435bda

Ironically, this election may be a referendum in a heavily Republican district on Medicaid expansion and therefore Trumpcare vs. Obamacare.

The Columbus Dispatch has endorsed O'Connor.

<<views Medicare and Social Security as earned social contracts and would not raise eligibility ages.
Calling for common-sense solutions to gun violence, O’Connor would support a “red flag” law to take guns away from those judged to be a threat, which Balderson rejects. O’Connor advocates applying the federal no-fly list to deny guns to those deemed too dangerous to board airplanes....

On entitlements, Balderson did not support Ohio’s Medicaid expansion and would raise the age of eligibility for Medicare and Social Security.>>

http://www.dispatch.com/opinion/2018...-for-open-seat

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...troy-balderson

[MillennialMaverick]

Ohio 12 may have decades ago been represented by Kasich, but it very recently went for President Trump by a large percentage--and he ran on the platform of repealing ACA and leaving medicare/caid expansions to be decided by the states--which the Ohio legislatures has done to their duty in opposing. Considering Trump's victory in both the 12th district (by 11 points) and the state of Ohio by 8 points (impressive for a swing), these issues have been litigated by the constituents and they have spoken as to which policy direction they wish to go on.


Also, Balderson received both the endorsement of Kasich and Trump--which isn't an easy feat to accomplish considering how opposed Kasich and Trump are to each other.



Personally, I don't see how Kasich plays much of a factor at all here. He's a lame duck governor and proven himself to not be a conservative with his endorsement of medicaid expansion and egregiously expressing his anti-second amendment sentiments. I think the voters of 2016 did a good service rejecting Kasich's presidential bid, as he was running on a considerably more conservative platform when he wanted to be president. Now that he's a lame duck and has no chance of winning in 2020? The cat comes out of the bag.



I also wouldn't consider a known liberal newspaper's endorsement to have any impact on the race. They're preaching to the choir with their audience, which isn't going to convince independents or sway Republicans.



Tomorrow should be interesting.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by MillennialMaverick

I also wouldn't consider a known liberal newspaper's endorsement to have any impact on the race.

The Columbus Dispatch is the region's leading newspaper and isn't considered liberal by anyone except Trumpies. It may be more moderate under its new editorial leadership. The Dispatch's endorsement of O'Connor may influence independent voters the most.

I also wonder if Green Party voters will waste their votes, especially in a special election (which won't impact future ballot eligibility), rather than cast their votes for O'Connor, certainly the most environment-friendly candidate compared to the Republican alternative. What voters say in a poll can change when actually in the polling booth, particularly for Green Party voters under these circumstances.

Given momentum, a good policy comparison, and the possible support from Green Party voters, it wouldn't surprise me if O'Connor actually wins by a couple percentage points.

It's definitely a very interesting election contest.

[Rosebush1]

Originally Posted by WRnative

The Columbus Dispatch is the region's leading newspaper and isn't considered liberal by anyone except Trumpies. It may be more moderate under its new editorial leadership. The Dispatch's endorsement of O'Connor may influence independent voters the most.

I also wonder if Green Party voters will waste their votes, especially in a special election (which won't impact future ballot eligibility), rather than cast their votes for O'Connor, certainly the most environment-friendly candidate compared to the Republican alternative. What voters say in a poll can change when actually in the polling booth, particularly for Green Party voters under these circumstances.

Given momentum, a good policy comparison, and the possible support from Green Party voters, it wouldn't surprise me if O'Connor actually wins by a couple percentage points.

It's definitely a very interesting election contest.

The Columbus Dispatch changed hands a while ago. The formerly moderate to slightly conservative paper is now decidely liberal. Franklin county is more liberal too. Big demographic changes.

[WRnative]

The Emerson College poll is the most recent and is the first to show O'Connor with a polling lead. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percent given the poll's small sampling of likely voters. Seven percent of respondents are undecided.

<<Independents are breaking 56% to 28% for O’Connor, and the Clinton voter seem more loyal to their party candidates in this election that those who voted for Trump. Clinton voters are breaking for O’Connor 95% to 3%, while Trump voters are breaking for Balderson 89% to 7%. A gender divide has emerged as well in the race. Males back Balderson 53%-42%, while females break for O’Connor 51%-40%. >>

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/defaul...h12-8.5.18.pdf