When will the Great Climate Migration to Ohio begin in full force? (Cleveland: 2015, insurance)

[WRnative]

Reading about housing affordability in Ohio, my immediate thought was that housing affordability in Ohio and other Great Lakes states was doomed.

//www.city-data.com/forum/ohio/...omparison.html

Over the next 20 years, expect housing prices in Ohio to rise much faster than incomes. Why?

Because now it's raining in the winter in Greenland, and global ocean ice sheets are rapidly disappearing (NOAA reports the Bering Sea had no ice cover in 2018), land-based glaciers in Greenland are collapsing and the process of glacier collapse now is beginning to unfold in Antarctica. Read about the research studies released just in 2019, even last week. We are entering a period of rapid sea level rise acceleration that will threaten heavily populated, low elevation coastal areas, greatly impair the financial resources of coastal states and the federal government, and inevitably result in a mounting migration to perceived relative climate "havens."

Greater Clevelanders well understand how rainfall accelerates snow melt. In the cryosphere, when protective layers of highly reflective snow are eliminated, darker ice and ocean surfaces absorb much higher levels of solar irradiance, increasing ice melt rates.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47485847

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...elting-faster/

https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/152/h...ls-rapid-decay

From late 2018:

https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/...cutive-Summary

The impact on Ohio was discussed in this thread, especially posts 20 and 26 in the following first thread and post 6 in the second following link.

//www.city-data.com/forum/ohio/...ge-ohio-2.html

//www.city-data.com/forum/ohio/...and-akron.html

Note that while the melting of sea ice contributes only minimally to sea level rise (due to the physics of displacement), the collapse of glaciers (such as Thwaites in Antarctica; see fourth link at top of the post) anchored on bedrock directly impact sea level rise. Humans have been inured to the consequences of melting sea ice (it's too bad that polar bears now have a much shorter hunting season on the Arctic Ocean ice sheet), but the accelerated melting of land ice will inundate beaches and then coastal communities, and we'll be powerless to stop it as accelerating ice melt already is locked into the global climate.

Increasing rainfall in the Arctic region also is accelerating permafrost melt and methane release.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0307091457.htm

Warming oceans are eroding both the ice sheets and glaciers of Antarctica. The release of methane, 80 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, from thawing Arctic region permafrost is mounting. Mankind's consumption of fossil fuels continue to mount, throwing ever more fuel into an already raging fire. Within the last six months, even in recent weeks, the scientific warnings have become catastrophic.

Carbon dioxide emissions globally from fossil fuel consumption reached over 37 billion metric tons in 2018.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rs/2215508002/

In the last six months, I've learned two new scientific terms -- cryosphere and albedo. I'm not going to explain the terms in detail, but anybody interested can research them. What matters is this, consider how fast ice in a glass melts, even at 40 degrees F.; within the past decade, man-made global warming has warmed temperatures in the cryosphere increasingly above the melting point of ice and much of the warming has impacted especially the oceans, even in Antarctica, rapidly eliminating all ocean ice, eroding portions of glaciers below sea level, and threatening the calving and collapse of Antarctica's massive glaciers, a process already well underway in Greenland.

Admittedly, we are just at the nascent stage of accelerated ice melt. NASA shows a long-term sea level rise rate of 3.2 millimeters per year, but (scroll over the following graph) the rate has accelerated to 5 millimeters per year (20 millimeters in 4 years; now about 1/5th inch per year), and this rate will rise exponentially in the years immediately ahead just as cryosphere ice melt rate now is rising exponentially.

89.9 on Oct. 11, 2018, up from 69.9 on Oct. 14, 2014:

https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understand...ean-sea-level/

Albedo (reflectivity of the earth's surface) is greatly reduced when sea ice melts, and when rain melts snow turning the surface of land ice sheets into darker ice and destroying layers of highly reflective snow.

Sea level rise will now become much more rapid, rising exponentially. NOAA already is projecting about a foot of sea level rise in Florida by 2030, most of it to occur in the later years of the next decade. The prospect is that these estimates will rise, perhaps significantly, and projections for 2040 will be frightening.

Inundation won't be the only problem. Failing septic tank systems, widely used in Florida, and impaired water supplies, will require billions of infrastructure solutions, which may only be short-term. Southern Florida media are attempting to warn residents with a collaborative website, but even that website likely is sugar-coating the problem. Harold Wanless, chairman of the geological sciences department at the Univ. of Miami, says efforts should be focused on containing the environmental threats (toxic waste dumps, nuclear power plants, etc.) that could contaminate the ocean environment after the inevitable inundation.

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2019/...e-projections/

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2019/...he-waterfront/

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/

Here's a definitive presentation that Harold Wanless delivered in Coral Gables well over three years ago. As noted in the links above, ice melt is accelerating just as anticipated by Wanless.

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Workshop - Oct 1st, 2015

There is a chart in the presentation that shows how closely global sea level correlates with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. With carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now above 410 parts per million, and it never exceed 300 ppm in the last 500 thousand years, over 70 feet of sea level rise already is locked into the system, according to the Wanless presentation linked above.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14845/figures/4

Within the next two decades, perhaps sooner rather than later, a mass climate change migration will begin to the Midwest, especially the Great Lakes region, and perhaps some other areas of the U.S. such as the mountain areas and northern plains. Housing prices in Ohio and elsewhere in the Great Lakes region will rise much faster than income.

Two recent books well summarize scientific research and detail the calamity well underway.

When Will Climate Change Make the Earth Too Hot For Humans?

https://www.amazon.com/Uninhabitable.../dp/0525576703

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/scien...rld-180971188/

[ferraris]

I don't see why you think housing prices would increase without incomes also increasing. In this scenario, where significant parts of the country become uninhabitable/undesirable, why wouldn't businesses and dollars migrate along with the people?

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by ferraris

I don't see why you think housing prices would increase without incomes also increasing. In this scenario, where significant parts of the country become uninhabitable/undesirable, why wouldn't businesses and dollars migrate along with the people?

Because I believe the U.S. and global economies will be impoverished by climate change, unless drastic actions are taken soon to transition away from fossil fuel consumption. Yes, wealthier persons will move to climate "havens," but so will persons who have lost all of their housing equity and with little other wealth.

And standard of living has little to do with nominal wealth -- consider the impact of the destruction of the ocean fisheries as a source of protein with ocean warming and acidification.

[Panther79]

Wow, this thread is a huge joke! It was 34 degrees with a wind chill of 24 yesterday on March 16th! I’d love to know where the “global warming “ is? Lol

[ZnGuy]

He’s a fool to think that any climate change is man made ��

[ferraris]

Originally Posted by Panther79

Wow, this thread is a huge joke! It was 34 degrees with a wind chill of 24 yesterday on March 16th! I’d love to know where the “global warming “ is? Lol

I think this thread is a little alarmist, but this is such an old and broken argument. There's a big difference between weather and climate. Even if you don't subscribe to it being caused by man, the climate has definitely been changing over the past ~100 years. To deny that is equivalent to being a flat earther.

[Bo]

I'm wondering why OP wants the opinion of us Internet schlubs when there are ~20 articles cited in that original post that likely have opinions far more expert than any of ours. Some of the people in those articles are likely on Twitter. Ask them directly!

[TheEmissary]

Although I accept that Global Climate Change is real and present, I wouldn't be bulldozing the GM Plant in Lordstown to open a Palm Tree Farm just yet! There's still quite a number of Ohio residents moving here to North Carolina. Florida and Miami will feel the effects of sea level rise first and may stop a few Ohioans moving to the Sunshine State. But Cleveland isn't going to be as balmy as Savannah anytime soon!

[WRnative]

Facts:

1) The Carolinas in just a few years have experienced two 500-year floods.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/2...ichael-matthew

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/18/u...s-history.html

2) As temperatures in cryosphere now are much more regularly above the melting point of ice, ice melt rapidly is accelerating. Additionally, the cryosphere's albedo is falling and the thawing of massive amounts of methane are increasing, both potentially disastrous negative feedback loops which will compound mankind's ability to reduce global warming. Actually read post 1 and the accompanying links. E.g., it's now raining in the winter in Greenland. Unlike Georgians, Ohioans well know the impact of winter rainfalls on snow and ice accumulations.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/...es/albedo.html

Sea level rise is expected to rise exponentially from this point forward, accelerating from the current 1/5th of an inch per year to likely one inch per year or more by 2030 and by two inches or more by 2040 (e.g., the NOAA expects as much as a foot of sea level rise by 2030, which implies much higher annual sea level rise later in the decade). Expect shockingly increased estimates of sea level rise in the next several years due to better satellites and intensified research (such as of the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica). ICESat-2 will allow scientists to calculate the rate of ice melt across the cryosphere much more accurately.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2794/c...asas-icesat-2/

<<But it is not just the Arctic that scientists are worried about. NASA’s newest space-based radar, Icesat 2, found that the Dotson ice shelf in Antarctica has lost more than 120 meters in thickness since 2003.>>

https://learningenglish.voanews.com/...s/4699442.html

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2833/i...a-ice-forests/

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2838/h...s-rapid-decay/

See the video here:

https://thwaitesglacier.org/

As beaches begin to disappear, as coastal erosion becomes relentless, as the inundation risk and tidal flooding places great demands on infrastructure and raises insurance premiums, the migration to coastal areas and states likely will halt and even reverse. The development-oriented economies of coastal states will be negatively impacted.

Tybee Island has an elevation of only 10 feet.

3) Rapid intensification now is a fact for all Atlantic hurricanes.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...rm/1602722002/

4) Rising atmospheric temperatures and rainfall in the southeast will make like in the region increasingly unpleasant.

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2019/...e-threatening/

5) Winters are rapidly diminishing in Ohio as global warming takes hold.

[walker1962]

Coincidentally, there was a news article just today discussing the trend of seniors leaving Florida fearful of more flooding and more immediately, rising insurance costs. Georgia and NC may benefit most but the latter is gets its fair share of hurricane activity as we saw last year. I don't see the upper Midwest benefitting as much as places like Tennessee, north Georgia, parts of Texas and the Pacific Northwest. The desert southwest has its issues due to lack of water already.