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Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to do or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease, this epidemic won't have begun to peak.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to do or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to do or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to do or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
COVID-19 hospitalizations in Ohio for the last four days have grown at a 39 percent rate. If hospitalizations continue to grow at a 40 percent rate, in 10 days we'll have 4,194 hospitalizations.
COVID-19 deaths in Ohio have grown at a 68 percent rate for the last four days, but that perhaps is distorted by the low initial number. If we use a 40 percent growth rate, daily deaths in 10 days will reach 231.
I doubt if we have 4,194 ventilators in Ohio.
<<As of Saturday afternoon, 145 people had been hospitalized in Ohio for treatment of COVID-19. Sixty-two are in the intensive-care unit, said Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton....
Ohio is seven to 14 days behind the situation in New York City, Acton said.>>
<<Hospitals in Ohio are at 60 percent capacity, Acton said. But beds in the intensive care units are key.
Ohio currently has about 3,600 ICU beds, she said. About 11 percent of coronavirus cases [but 43 percent of hospitalizations need ICU care, according to the above data reported by Ohio] need ICU care.>>
Unfortunately, Ohio didn't says how many ICU beds currently are occupied. If Ohio COVID-19 hospitalizations do reach 4,194 in 10 days, and 43 percent require ICU beds, 1,803 of Ohio's ICU beds will be needed for COVID-19 patients.
The COVID-19 epidemic is beginning to reduce the numbers of healthcare personnel available.
<<Acton also noted that, statewide, 16 percent – or 91 cases – are healthcare workers who have contracted the virus themselves.>>
<<“I think that the president and I are aligned. We want to get this over with as quickly as we can... the frustration that he has, I share that frustration,” DeWine said. “The truth is that protecting people and protecting the economy are not mutually exclusive. In fact, one depends upon the other. We save our economy by first saving lives. And we have to do it in that order.”
The economy won’t be able to bounce back until people feel safe and are ready to get back to work and back to normal, he said, “but we’ve got to do this and we’ve got to get through this.”
“I’d love to be rolling in two weeks, but we just have to see where we are,” he said.
The governor also said based on modeling and analysis from health department officials, he expects the worst of the pandemic to peak in Ohio around the first week of May, indicating the stay at home order that went into effect in the early morning hours on Tuesday could have to be extended beyond its initial April 6 end date.>>
DeWine wants to end the lockdown within a few weeks even though he doesn't expect the COVID-19 epidemic to peak in Ohio until the first week of May, according to the Ideastream report????? Can't he count? Doesn't he think the lockdown will have to continue well past the peak of the epidemic?
Are reporters allowed to ask questions at DeWine's daily briefings? Here are some key ones: 1) Does he expect, as in New York, a significant shortage of ventilators? 2) When will Ohio run out of personal protection equipment and, as a result, how many of the state's healthcare workers and first responders does he expect will be infected? 3) What percentage of Ohio ICU beds are currently occupied with non-COVID-19 patients? 4) How long past the peak of the epidemic does DeWine expect the lockdown will remain in place?
Contemplating this information, persons IMO should hope they won't require hospitalization as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic or for any other disease or injury in coming weeks. Ohioans also should prepare not to shop for supplies for several weeks at a time.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25), then cumulative deaths.
For the first time in the last 5 days, the day-to-day increase in both reported hospitalizations and in deaths were less than 30 percent. Let's hope and pray this downward trend continues in the days ahead!
Given the ridiculously low testing rate in Ohio, typically restricted to the elderly and those with the most severe symptoms, DeWine in his 3/24 briefing apparently emphasized that a quarter of positively diagnosed cases in Ohio result in hospitalization.
DeWine's level of disclosure, blunt warnings, and desperation pales against those of NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whose state is at the current epicenter of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic.
Hopefully, as a loyal supporter of President Trump, DeWine will be able to secure the thousands of ventilators needed to double Ohio's ICU units, but it's doubtful. When persons begin dying in NY for lack of ventilators, likely every available ventilator will end up there, leaving those states ramping up behind NY in equally dire (assuming lower hospitalization rates) if not worse condition. NY testing rates are much higher than in Ohio.
Will DeWine complacently accept the deficiencies in the federal response effort as it becomes clear that Ohio's hospitals eventually will be overwhelmed and Ohio COVID-19 patients will die for lack of proper treatment? Or will DeWine demand federal help as Gov. Cuomo is doing in NY?
Remember that in yesterday's Ohio briefing, Dr. Acton said Ohio was 7-14 days behind NY. See post 4.
If Ohioans get very lucky, DeWine's relatively aggressive social distancing orders will flatten Ohio's hospitalization rate before our hospitals are overwhelmed and we need those extra ICU ventilators that are likely not available.
I wonder if the DeWine administration has done an inventory of Ohio's ventilator supply and is actively working to increase the supply. It's perplexing why there is no transparency on this issue if Ohio does need to double the number of ICU beds, as stated today by Dr. Acton.
Anybody heard about possible coronavirus infections in the US - late last year, like December? I came down with a very bad "cold" that would not go away for 6 weeks. Many similar symptoms: lack of taste/smell, very dry cough, difficulty breathing, bronchitis type symptoms. It was very frustrating, I went to urgent care twice, took antibiotics once to take care of a infection. It seemed so strange because I rarely get that sick and consider myself to be very healthy for 55.
I wouldn't be surprised. There is so much commerce out of Wuhan that it wouldn't be surprising if a lot of us already have antibodies and we don't know that yet.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25), then cumulative deaths.
Ohio warns of a significant increase in hospitalizations which will tax if not exceed Ohio's hospital capacity. It's not clear in the following article if the peak in new hospitalizations will take place by mid-April or by mid-May.
<<Instead, the projection from the OSU researchers is that the state is on target for a peak of new cases somewhere in the range of 7,500 to about 9,500 a day, occurring during the first half of April, according to the graphic Acton shared. Action said she hoped the curve peak eventually is in May.>>
Due to a lack of personal protection equipment, Ohio's hospitals likely will be a dangerous place for both healthcare workers and patients in coming weeks/months.
<<According to the new projections, the anticipated need for N-95 respirator masks is almost 42 times greater than what are available.>>
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25), then cumulative deaths.
Gov. Mike DeWine today warned that Ohio must TRIPLE hospital capacity by mid-April. That's two weeks from now! How is that possible? Who will staff all of those beds??? How does the governor provide such information with a paucity of detail? Why does the media report such a warning with no urgent consideration of the implications or concerns?
<<“I don’t want anyone to be alarmed, but I also want everyone to understand what we face,” DeWine said during his daily briefing, adding that two things are important.>> REALLY??? Shouldn't we all be very scared?
Ohio cases at the peak of the epidemic now could reach 10,000. What is important is projected need for overall hospital beds and intensive care unit (ICU) beds. DeWine failed to quantify the need for hospital beds and ICU beds, even though his warning about the need to triple the number of hospital beds suggests he possesses some information about the state's inventories of overall beds and ICU beds.
Evidently, DeWine's warnings and projections apparently are based on a new modeling report released by Cleveland Clinic epidemiologists. He also addressed the need for additional staffing.
<<DeWine said hospital staffing is also an issue. The state is trying to pull people in who have retired and is also working to use other kinds of doctors like dermatologist or plastic surgeons in a different capacity.>>
Basically that the Covid 19 virus will continue to get worse until about May 1st, when it will peak.
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