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These maps indicate the challenge in the U.S. as we've developed a significant anti-mask, anti-vaccine, anti-science culture that is much larger and more problematic than in many other nations, such as Australia and New Zealand. The disparity in public health measures and culture., and case and death rates, varies greatly even within states.
If even 40 percent of persons wear masks that's significantly better than in counties such as my Lake County, where very few persons wear masks even though the positivity rate is over 11 percent.
My guess is that on the Ohio University campus both the mask mandate and the vaccine mandate are strictly enforced, and this can have a big impact on reducing transmission in the Athens community. Athens city schools likely also are enforcing their mask mandate.
Athens also has a vaccination mandate for city employees, according to this article, which certainly sounds as if Athens is enforcing stringent public health measures contrary to your representations.
Athens County's lowest positivity rate among all Ohio counties didn't happen by accident. It would be interesting to know what the vaccination rate is in Athens County versus other Ohio counties, especially several southwestern Ohio counties still experiencing a significant Delta surge. If I have time sometime, I might see if Ohio county vaccination data is available.
I can't speak on the vaccine mandate side of things.
For masking, I'm not debating that the mandate exists here. However, from my personal experience living in Athens and frequently visiting bars and other venues on weekends, the majority of people ignore the mandate. Of course the city won't admit that they aren't putting much (or any) effort into enforcing it. Although indoor masking on OU's campus may be enforced by the school, it doesn't do much good when those same students are packing into the bars maskless for multiple nights per week. The county also had a ~11% positivity rate during the beginning of September even though the mask mandate was in place multiple weeks beforehand.
As for that article about the Halloween block party being canceled, that decision was pure safety theater, especially since the event was outdoors. People are going to party this weekend regardless...probably more indoors now lol.
This is all lovely but any conversation without age adjusted mortality is missing a massive part of the picture.
Please feel free to research and share statistics that demonstrate your concern. Candidly, given the fact that vaccination rates are highly correlated with COVID mortality, and generally the elderly are much more highly vaccinated than younger Americans, and with increased immunity boosts given third doses, your concern seems misplaced for mortality statistics DURING THE DELTA SURGE with vaccines so readily available.
Persons who want to dismiss the effectiveness of public health measures such as vaccination and masking because of demographics never in my experience provide a cogent explanation of their concern using the statistical data available.
So your statement IMO, having spent a relatively significant amount of time actually examining the statistical data, is, at best, unfounded. E.g., are the percentage of elderly residents in a county or state really materially different, and does it matter IF there is a high rate of vaccination among the elderly?
What is shockingly unexpected is how much vaccination rates among the elderly vary from county to county, at least in Ohio. So given the weaker immunity systems among the elderly, a county with low rates of elderly vaccination would be more vulnerable to the COVID virus. See discussion below.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianGC
I can't speak on the vaccine mandate side of things.
For masking, I'm not debating that the mandate exists here. However, from my personal experience living in Athens and frequently visiting bars and other venues on weekends, the majority of people ignore the mandate. Of course the city won't admit that they aren't putting much (or any) effort into enforcing it. Although indoor masking on OU's campus may be enforced by the school, it doesn't do much good when those same students are packing into the bars maskless for multiple nights per week. The county also had a ~11% positivity rate during the beginning of September even though the mask mandate was in place multiple weeks beforehand.
The national vaccination rate for those aged 65 or greater is over 80 percent. For Ohio, the percentage of the elderly fully vaccinated is near 89 percent, but only 37 percent for aged 12-17 and 56 percent for aged 18-64. In California, the respective percentages are 88, 59 and 70 percent.
The CDC offers detailed county-by-county vaccination statistics. Examining several Ohio counties, I was shocked by the difference in vaccination rates, most especially among the elderly! Click on any county in the following map to see the vaccination statistics, and the positivity rate for any Ohio county.
I randomly looked at Noble County, and was shocked to see that only 45 percent of those 65-years-old and over were fully vaccinated, much lower than state-wide and national averages, and virtually the same as other age cohorts in Noble County.
In Athens County, about 84 percent of those aged 65 or greater are vaccinated. As only 51 percent of vaccine-eligible residents aged 12 and over are fully vaccinated, the vaccination rates obviously are much lower among more youthful cohorts, who therefore are more vulnerable to COVID infections and the consequences.
Here are the CDC fully vaccinated statistics for Ohio's major urban counties: Hamilton (Cincinnati; aged 65 and older 87percent, 12 and older 66 percent); Franklin (Columbus; 88, 68); Cuyahoga (Cleveland; 85, 67); Lucas (Toledo; 86, 61); and Summit (Akron; 86, 65).
In Los Angeles County, CA, where there is vaccine mandate for school children, a state-wide mask mandate and the positivity rate has fallen below 1 percent, the respective percentages are 79 and 72. In New York County (Manhattan), where the positivity rate also is below 1 percent, the respective fully vaccinated percentages are 81 and 82 percent, where employment vaccine mandates and apparent parent willingness to vaccinate their children actually has raised the overall percentage above the elderly percentage.
Based on Athens County's relatively low vaccination rates for younger age cohorts, the masking mandates there must have been very effective in reducing transmission.
The CDC offers detailed county-by-county vaccination statistics. Examining several Ohio counties, I was shocked by the difference in vaccination rates, most especially among the elderly! Click on any county in the following map to see the vaccination statistics, and the positivity rate for any Ohio county.
You don't have to click on counties in the above referenced map to find the statistics for any county, although that's the fastest method if you can identify a county just by looking at the map.
Another option is to use the pop-up menus at the above linked CDC website, even though the pop-up menus are somewhat clunky. Just select Ohio in the state pop-up menu and then the desired county on the county pop-up menu.
The CDC website is a very valuable tool in assessing the status of the COVID epidemic in your county of residence, work, etc. IMO, the positivity rate in a county is the most important statistic. Until the positivity rate is below 5 percent, and IMO below 1 percent, my personal belief it's ridiculously foolish not to wear a good N-95 mask (such as the 3M "Aura" N-95 masks available at Home Depot) when engaging in more risky, non-social activities such as shopping indoors, sitting in a theater, etc.
Even though I'm fully vaccinated with a third dose of the Moderna vaccine (which has higher quantifies of MRNA material than the Pfizer vaccines), I've becoming culturally Japanese and wear an N-95 mask religiously when shopping and engaging in other indoor activities not involving social interactions such as dining with friends. I'm elderly with some co-morbidity risks. I've researched COVID for well over a year now, and am very conscious that COVID is NOT the flu, even though the flu is not anything that I treat lightly (I remember being deathly ill with a 104 degree temperature from the flu as a pre-teen; my dad took me to the emergency room, but, in those days, they didn't have antiviral drugs or any other procedures to treat even marginally ambient patients). As I've repeatedly posted, and recent research confirms my fears, long COVID sequelae can permanently diminish the health of even those with mild or asymptomatic COVID infections, and that the incidence of long COVID is much greater than the percentage of persons who die from a COVID infection. Neither our political leaders nor most of the U.S. media discuss long COVID let alone address the policy consequences of its reality.
A study published in the "American Journal of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine" last week details the impact of long COVID on patients. Shockingly, and IMO disgustingly, it's one of the very few studies of long COVID to have been conducted and published. The study is from the Mount Sinai Health System, which claims to be the largest academic health system in New York City .
Neglect of long COVID is a major failing of not only state governments, especially in Republican dominated states such as Ohio that resist imposing necessary public health measures to blunt transmission, but also of the Biden administration. The Biden administration's COVID experts, and President Biden himself, promote hospitalization and death as the only "severe" consequences of a COVID infection. Anybody who has studied long COVID IMO would certainly consider it a serious and too often severe consequence of a COVID infection.
<<Patients experiencing post-acute COVID syndrome (PACS, also known as “long COVID”) may have symptoms for at least 12 months after initial COVID-19 infection, significantly and negatively impacting their cognition, ability to work, participation in physical activity, interaction with others, and overall quality of life, according to a new Mount Sinai study....
“With millions of Americans at risk of developing PACS by the end of the pandemic, a second, longer-term public health emergency has emerged.... “This study is a concerning reminder of how severely debilitating PACS symptoms are, the toll they take on health and wellness, and the fact that, without active treatment, these symptoms appear to persist indefinitely....”
The most common reported symptoms were fatigue (82 percent of patients), followed by brain fog (67 percent), headache (60 percent), sleep disturbance (59 percent), and dizziness (54 percent). Researchers performed a more detailed evaluation of the severity of self-reported cognitive impairment and discovered that more than 60 percent of PACS patients had some level of cognitive impairment (either mild, moderate or severe), with symptoms including diminished short-term memory, difficulty remembering names, and issues with decision-making and daily planning.
In total, 135 patients answered questions about their employment pre- and post-COVID-19, and the number of patients in full-time work (102) went down to 55.>>
While the Mt. Sinai study included only 156 patients, as implied in the above press release, long COVID could impact millions of Americans.
In the U.K., as part of its national healthcare system, detailed statistics are kept about the health of the British people and the incidence of disease. The population of the U.K. is 67.22 million, about one-fifth of the U.S.
<<Thousands of people with long Covid are being fired or discriminated against at work because of their condition, campaigners believe.
Some 405,000 individuals [over 2 million if extrapolated to the U.S.] are suffering from symptoms that have persisted for at least a year since they were infected, according to data from the Office for National Statistics.
As a result of their conditions, which can be debilitating, many have been unable to work and forced to take long-term sick leave. In some instances, people with long Covid have been sacked from their job....
Women were disproportionately affected, the research showed....
“This is a significant loss of skilled workforce,” said Long Covid Support. “The prevalence of long Covid in women has serious and potentially long-term negative implications for gender equality in the UK labour market. It may also impact child poverty.”>>
While the British Office of National Statistics (ONS) studies the prevalence of long COVID in the U.K., to my knowledge no similar effort is undertaken in the U.S. From the above article:
<<In total, more than one million [five million if extrapolated to the U.S.] people living in the UK are experiencing persistent symptoms after an infection of Covid-19, figures from the ONS shows.
In its most recent survey of private households up to 5 September, the ONS estimated 1.1 million people had Long Covid symptoms for more than four weeks after their infection.
More than 830,000 people said they still had symptoms at least 12 weeks after being infected. Of these, the ONS found 211,000 people were reporting their ability to carry out day to day activities was being “limited a lot” by their symptoms.>>
The U.K. has a higher vaccination rate than the U.S.
While the U.S. has experienced 2,297 deaths per million residents, the rate in the U.K. is 2,056. The U.S. reported case rate per million residents is 140,296 per million residents, compared to 131,949 in the U.K. COVID cases likely highly correlates with the incidence of long COVID.
Given the above statistics, the rate of long COVID in the U.S. may be higher than in the U.K.
More than half of COVID survivors in this study developed long COVID.
<<Long-term symptoms of coronavirus infection, known as 'long COVID,' affects more than half of COVID-19 survivors, and health care systems should be prepared to treat them, researchers say....
Ssentongo said vaccination is the best way to avoid getting COVID-19 and reduce your odds of long COVID even in the presence of a breakthrough infection.>>
Long COVID likely will reduce American productivity by impairing the work force.
<<Although many people with COVID-19 get better within weeks, some people continue to experience symptoms that can last months after first being infected, or may have new or recurring symptoms at a later time.1 This can happen to anyone who has had COVID-19, even if the initial illness was mild. People with this condition are sometimes called “long-haulers.” This condition is known as “long COVID.”2>>
COVID long haulers potentially are eligible for Social Security disability. Given the 12 months condition for Social Security disability, such claims may mushroom in coming months. It would be informative if the Social Security Administration provided transparency about the number of such claims and the number of claims approved.
Persons who want to dismiss the effectiveness of public health measures such as vaccination and masking because of demographics never in my experience provide a cogent explanation of their concern using the statistical data available.
Well, today's your lucky day.
Youtube "vaping with masks." You'll see that aerosols (which is how COVID is spread) go through and around non-medical grade masks. Even a metastudy at the CDC's website found "no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks..." Which is what you'd expect from a device that holds in aerosols about as well as a colander holds water.
I agree that COVID vaccines reduce hospitalization and serious cases of COVID. But as a public health measure, we've seen COVID run rampant through places with high vaccination rates. We've also seen COVID rates peak and then fall in places with low vaccination rates, just as every previous epidemic of respiratory viruses has ever done.
I haven't dug into the data you've provided, but I get the impression that it's based on observations of things that seem to be related. As you know, correlation is not causation--and I don't think you're doing statistical correlation (correct me if I'm wrong). Observational studies can be useful for making hypotheses, but usually not for determining causes since they're fraught with confounding variables. In the case of Gov. DeWine observing masks and cases in schools, for instance, he wasn't even citing a study. Observations like this don't take into account the healthy user effect, quality of individual schools' ventilation systems, how crowded or spacious the schools are, or the kids' exposure to COVID outside of school.
As to being anti-science. Maybe it's just the people I talk to, or the sites I visit, but I've found far more science (or at least data) denial on the other side: VAERS denial, natural immunity denial, vaccinated-spreader denial, and ad hominem/straw man attacks ("anti-vaxxers!"). All while saying, "Follow the science!"
Youtube "vaping with masks." You'll see that aerosols (which is how COVID is spread) go through and around non-medical grade masks. Even a metastudy at the CDC's website found "no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks..." Which is what you'd expect from a device that holds in aerosols about as well as a colander holds water.
I agree that COVID vaccines reduce hospitalization and serious cases of COVID. But as a public health measure, we've seen COVID run rampant through places with high vaccination rates. We've also seen COVID rates peak and then fall in places with low vaccination rates, just as every previous epidemic of respiratory viruses has ever done.
I haven't dug into the data you've provided, but I get the impression that it's based on observations of things that seem to be related. As you know, correlation is not causation--and I don't think you're doing statistical correlation (correct me if I'm wrong). Observational studies can be useful for making hypotheses, but usually not for determining causes since they're fraught with confounding variables. In the case of Gov. DeWine observing masks and cases in schools, for instance, he wasn't even citing a study. Observations like this don't take into account the healthy user effect, quality of individual schools' ventilation systems, how crowded or spacious the schools are, or the kids' exposure to COVID outside of school.
As to being anti-science. Maybe it's just the people I talk to, or the sites I visit, but I've found far more science (or at least data) denial on the other side: VAERS denial, natural immunity denial, vaccinated-spreader denial, and ad hominem/straw man attacks ("anti-vaxxers!"). All while saying, "Follow the science!"
Just read a couple of your links and quickly realized that what we have here is a well-written, but entirely disingenuous example of anti-vax Big Lie propaganda. You carefully cherry-picked and misrepresented what was said in the links that I read, which at any rate were taken out of context or were outdated.
It's your lucky day because I don't have time to live in C-D forums and play whack-a-prevaricator with the multitude of Big Lie propagandists that post in C-D forums. When I have time, I might respond in-depth to your deceptions. In the meantime, hopefully nobody will fall for your dangerous statements.
I've addressed the effectiveness of masks and vaccines repeatedly in the following thread, especially since July during the Delta surge. If someone has a few hours, they can start with post 288 and read my many posts since then, which debunk the thrust of your propaganda.
The data well demonstrates that states with higher rates of vaccine and mask mandates (such as California) have lower case and death rates than states with leaders that promote your brand of propaganda (such as Florida), especially during the Delta variant surge. Also consider the much lower COVID case and death rates in nations such as South Korea and Japan, both with mask-wearing cultures but with delayed availability of MRNA vaccines compared to the U.S., even though both nations have very limited use of social distancing measures such as lockdowns.
This thread also discusses mask effectiveness AND that even vaccinated individuals can transmit the COVID virus, a reality which is just another reason to mask up and get vaccinated. It's NOT a reason to avoid vaccination, as implied in your post, as vaccinations protect against hospitalization and death, and hopefully against the acquisition of long COVID sequelae. See post 258.
Clearly medical scientists, hospitals, doctors and nurses wear N-95 respirator masks to protect themselves. Persons actually interested in obtaining similar protection can read posts 90 and 94 in this thread.
You implied with this dangerous statement that vaccinations don't work. Yet the research you quoted was directed at the impact of the highly contagious Delta variant. Nations with any significant amount of unvaccinated individuals were therefore slammed by the emergence of the Delta variant, more especially if masks weren't being employed to mute transmission. Haven't you heard the phrase "epidemic of the unvaccinated?"
Israel also discovered that the Delta variant was sufficiently virulent to defeat the limited immunity conferred by two doses of MRNA vaccine spaced too closely together. Persons should read the following article carefully and then grasp the extent of the bunk you are promoting.
Israel, unlike the U.S., is providing third doses of COVID vaccine to its entire vaccine eligible population. Are you arguing that they are doing so because vaccination doesn't work, despite studies to the contrary?
<<1 158 269 individuals were eligible to be included in the third dose group. Following matching, the third dose and control groups each included 728 321 individuals. Participants had a median age of 52 years (IQR 37–68) and 51% were female. The median follow-up time was 13 days (IQR 6–21) in both groups. Vaccine effectiveness evaluated at least 7 days after receipt of the third dose, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago, was estimated to be 93% (231 events for two doses vs 29 events for three doses; 95% CI 88–97) for admission to hospital, 92% (157 vs 17 events; 82–97) for severe disease, and 81% (44 vs seven events; 59–97) for COVID-19-related death.
Interpretation
Our findings suggest that a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective in protecting individuals against severe COVID-19-related outcomes, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago.>>
<<Israel on Sunday made booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccine available to everyone age 12 and up who received the second shot at least five months ago, in an effort to combat spiraling coronavirus infections.>>
The problem with the original two-dose vaccine regimen reportedly is that the second dose was spaced too closely to the third dose in order to rapidly build immunity to blunt the surge ravaging the country. Some persons hope the third dose, spaced five months or more after the second dose will provide more lasting protection. For those with weakened immune systems, this does not appear to be the case, as the government just announced the availability of a fourth dose for those immunologically impaired.
As to being anti-science. Maybe it's just the people I talk to, or the sites I visit, but I've found far more science (or at least data) denial on the other side: VAERS denial, natural immunity denial, vaccinated-spreader denial, and ad hominem/straw man attacks ("anti-vaxxers!"). All while saying, "Follow the science!"
You are an anti-science poster of deceit, deliberate deceit IMO. Have you no shame???
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Long COVID and recent studies
