[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

Greetings! Nice to see this thread once again resurrected. Well, overall, my summer forecast was somewhat of a bust, but at least I knew that this summer would not be a repeat of the last two torrid years. The excessive rainfall of July was not foreseen, August was a little more what I expected.

Taking a look between now into the fall and winter, in the short term.. a beautiful stretch of idyllic weather with comfortably warm days and cool fair nights.. skies will clear from north to south today and starting tomorrow.. perfect weather, with not much wind either (an uncommon characteristic for the last few months) Next weekend, another front moves in with a threat of rain statewide.. especially east of I-35. Next Sunday will be the best chance of rain.. models have up to an inch in places like Stillwater and Tulsa. Have a feeling this will be scaled back some but we'll see how the models evolve.

Looking into October, the autumn season and a peak into winter: long range patterns depicted on the CFSv2 model which has had a reasonable handle on it's accuracy indicates a warmer and drier than normal October but I'm curious about what could occur around or just after the second week of October which could bring some respectable cold fronts thru here resulting in possible early season frosts across the north and northeast parts of the state due to a blocking pattern that may take up residence across the North American continent.. if the jet stream configuration backs up just far enough west, we could see repeated cool air intrusions the last two weeks of the month but will be accompanied by only modest amounts of precipitation. If however, the jet stream sets up with the trough across the east, ridge of high pressure central states and a trough in the west.. mild and tranquil weather will be the dominant story .. again with below normal rainfall. One fly in the ointment.. tropical activity that I feel will ramp up in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during October with an outside chance of a decaying system that may work its way up into Oklahoma.. also a possible tropical system may affect the southern plains, Texas in particular coming from Baja California.. a small chance of that as well.. but I emphasize.. small chance.

Later on, going through November.. December and the winter of 2013-14, I see a potential for an overall milder and drier than normal winter BUT.. a possible mid Pacific el nino, which if that occurs, will be a modest el nino at best, this could activate the sub tropical jetstream that could give us some cloudy, chilly periods with potential snow and ice events. As of now, I give this about a 35% chance of this happening. I do think there will be parts of November, maybe December and the latter part of winter like February and March that could feature some healthy cold snaps. If a good snow cover can be established to our north from Kansas on north.. those cold outbreaks could mean business with some nights getting into the single digits above zero, even with little snowcover here in Oklahoma. But overall, I am guardedly optimistic of an overall milder and drier than normal winter for us here in Oklahoma.

Even further ahead.. a potentially snowier and colder than normal winter from the Pacific Northwest across the northern plains and the northeast may create some sharp contrasts in temperature across the central and southern plains, this may result in a stormier than normal spring for 2014.

As always, this is all based on long term trends across the northern hemisphere, this is speculation at best. We'll see how this all works out. Have a blessed day and lets try to keep this thread alive.

Edit: Just looked at the latest CFSv2 model.. suddenly it's suggesting some rather wet periods during the 2nd and 3rd week of October.. a turnaround from several days of an opposite forecast. I suspect this may be a "burp" on this run.. Only God knows.. and I'll keep on trying.

Interesting observations and analysis. I agree with you on the development of the blocking pattern for October as the PNA is forecasted to flip back into its positive phasing, allowing for heights to rise off the West Coast. The NAO and AO are then forecasted to flip negative resulting in more intrusions of colder air into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Also, what are your early thoughts regarding Fall and Winter for Wisconsin? I'm hoping to put some new tires on the Subaru by November before the snow starts flying here. My drive to work involves a large number of rural roads with 270 degree corners.

[rockyinyourradio]

Latest models still imply a pretty decent amount of rain for especially central, southern and parts of eastern OK for Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. I'm thinking about .75 of the OKC area, maybe up to 1.2 inches for places like Okemah, McAlester and Holdenville on down to Ardmore. Severe weather not expected but some storms could harbour some strong wind gusts and small hail. After the weekend, another stretch of fine weather with near normal temperatures expected. The following weekend (Oct. 5-6) may cool off substantially with night time lows in the 40's across the northeast half of the state.

On a footnote with my last post, been doing some more studies on this upcoming winter..still think that we'll see more above normal temperatures than below, but I'm seeing some interesting correlation's regarding other years with similar weather patterns. I'm really wondering if we could see some bonified arctic outbreaks at least graze our region.. becoming a little more concerned that we could see at least one substantial ice storm somewhere in Oklahoma as well. Lets hope not. Overall, I expect the winter to be drier than normal, but I'll be watching how this mid Pacific el nino materializes which as I said could throw a monkey wrench altogether in my prediction. I'll give another updated winter weather forecast around the first of November.

[rockyinyourradio]

Beautiful stretch of weather this week until about Friday.. then what could be about a 5 day stretch of unsettled weather with periodic bouts of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather threat will be mitigated by marginal instability but what could be some healthy amounts of rain is a reasonable possibility, especially late Sunday, but most likely in the Monday to Wednesday time frame (10/13-16). Best chances for 1 to locally 3 inches of rain, starting this Friday 10/11 to Wednesday 10/16 will be from roughly Purcell to Stilwell on south.

Further ahead, another respite after next Wednesday for a few days then more precip. possible the following week. No unusually cool weather expected.. overall, near normal temperatures.

I am continuing to research into how are winter may pan out. What is fascinating is that in the high arctic above about 65N latitude, especially on the Asian continent (northern Russia).. snowcover is the fourth highest ever recorded for this time of year.. this may very well influence our upcoming season.. beginning to already think my initial prognostication of a mild, drier than normal winter may be canned. More to come on this.. I'll put out my final winter prediction right around November 1.

[#1soonerfan]

I'm crossing my fingers for a cold winter. We haven't had a snow day in 2 years!

[GraniteStater]

I'm seeing signs of a Northwest flow pattern developing by later in the month into early November. The NAO and AO are now forecasted to go into negative territory in two weeks (hasn't occurred yet) and the PNA is reversing sign- meaning the ridge off the Pacific Ocean will get stronger. Snow cover upstream is always crucial to how a winter weather pattern sets up. This gives me high confidence that the Northwoods will have deeper snow by the end of November.
I expect Oklahoma to see a colder than average November potentially. This month I expect near average temperatures.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Originally Posted by #1soonerfan

I'm crossing my fingers for a cold winter. We haven't had a snow day in 2 years!

Me too!

[rockyinyourradio]

Starting later thisevening through Tuesday night, we will likely have a pretty wet period setting up. Monday thru Tuesday should be the most unsettled. Monday may feature some severe weather across western and central OK. with the main threats being hail up to half dollar size and damaging winds to 65mph. Still not certain about though as some of the parameters required for severe weather are barely there. However..
total rainfall amounts may exceed 3 inches (maybe 4"!) from an area from Atoka to Talihina down to the Durant and Idabel region.. basically SE third of Okla.

About 12-16 days out, what may be the end of the growing season is an increasing concern. A pretty substantial arctic surge is possible. I'll believe it more once I see consistency in the model runs. I am confident though that the period between Oct. 20 through the end of the month will average at least 4 degrees below average with temps. lowering to at least 35F in Stillwater and Tulsa to 38-40F for the OKC area.. but if the GFS run from midnight has it's way.. we could see 25-30F widespread throughout much of the state during that time frame.. not confident it will be that cold, but the potential is there.

[rockyinyourradio]

Just a quick note.. I'll take a stab at the winter forecast here within a couple of days. New data is interesting for sure. In the short term, up to 3" of rain for parts of eastern and SE Okla. through noon tomorrow.

Early next week, another very wet system that will mostly affect the eastern half of the state, especially SE.

Overall, near normal temps. Could be a wet November if long range data verifies. My last post suggested alot of cold that actually just stayed to our north and east, so while it materialized, it just missed us. More soon. Be Blessed!

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

Just a quick note.. I'll take a stab at the winter forecast here within a couple of days. New data is interesting for sure. In the short term, up to 3" of rain for parts of eastern and SE Okla. through noon tomorrow.

Early next week, another very wet system that will mostly affect the eastern half of the state, especially SE.

Overall, near normal temps. Could be a wet November if long range data verifies. My last post suggested alot of cold that actually just stayed to our north and east, so while it materialized, it just missed us. More soon. Be Blessed!

Oklahoma Meso has two day rain amounts in the 3.5 to 4.5" range southeast of Tulsa. Here in Stillwater we got bypassed as usual by the heavy part of the system. Around .2" fell. Rainfall for the year just went over 30". Only two months left to get the average amount of around 36". However, it's nice this time of year to get bypassed by unusually cold outbursts.

[debbie at bouontiful]

I may have got an inch and I am in SE OK>>