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I have been wondering if you have an opinion about what the severe storm season might be like this spring/early summer. Some people I have spoken with think it could be a bad one since the winter has been relatively mild. Others believe we won't have many storms or tornadoes.
Any predictions or is it still too early to contemplate?
Still trying to piece together what I think may transpire.. initially, I'm becoming more confident that after about the first week of March, we'll see an active period of unsettled weather which could include at least one severe weather outbreak.
As you know, we've been unusually dry overall since the first of the year, which caught me by surprise. The first part of winter pretty much transpired like I forecasted, with 2 significant ice storms, but little in the way of snow..also, it was a bit warmer than I expected. Most el nino's feature at least normal precip. and cooler than normal temps. The overall warm sea surface temps. across both the Pacific and Atlantic basin (Gulf of Mexico included) exacerbated the temperature anomalies and perhaps played a role in the subnormal moisture.
The one thing that concerns me with this season, is that the positive sea surface temperature anomalies could play a role in this upcoming season. As mentioned, we are about to get into a more active period with an strong sub tropical jet stream fueled by what may be a western trough that will aid in moisture transport into our region. So, I'm reasonably confident that we'll see some bountiful amounts of rain for both Oklahoma and especially Texas with at least one severe weather outbreak which may include tornadoes.
Further ahead.. I think April could also be active interspersed with dry, uneventful stretches of weather. May, which is our peak severe weather time, may be slightly below normal for severe weather along with slightly to moderately above normal temperatures. A couple of the long term models suggest this, but of course, these are only computer models, subject to substantial error.
My gut feeling in summary.. a stormy start, a quiet finish. And I still believe an overall hotter and drier than normal summer. More soon when time permits.
I'm always ready for rain (I love rainy stretches of weather!), but I can do without the hail and tornadoes. <smiling> As you posted earlier, I hope this thread perks up some. I expect it will as we get closer to storm season. I know I always check it out even if I don't post a lot.
I also hope we don't get into another drought situation like we had in previous years. That was the pits around here!
I'm always ready for rain (I love rainy stretches of weather!), but I can do without the hail and tornadoes. <smiling> As you posted earlier, I hope this thread perks up some. I expect it will as we get closer to storm season. I know I always check it out even if I don't post a lot.
I also hope we don't get into another drought situation like we had in previous years. That was the pits around here!
Well, I love rain too educator1953! The only down side is wading thru the mud around our barn to care for the horses. My chief complaint with Oklahoma are these long stretches of blazing sun and lengthy dry stretches. The seasonal affect disorder you may be familiar with; when people suffer from long stretches of dark, cloudy days..Well, I have the opposite affect, where too many days of monotonous, boring, sunny weather, drives me crazy. The heat has the most negative effect on me though.. it seems to get worse as I grow older.
An addendum to my last post, looking at the newest data, possibly some localized severe weather in the form of gusty winds and some hail are now possible early next week (Monday evening, maybe Tuesday) followed by another interesting system later next week which if the models verify, may bring a little snow to northern Okla. Not holding my breath on that, I think as far as our snow season.. we can stick a fork in it. The new data still implies an active period after about March 9-10th or so and should last about two weeks. This will likely include some severe weather with the core of this active weather in northern TX. (Waco, DFW).
Also, more about our summer.. two long range models that at times in the past have some accuracy (the CFSv2 and the JAMSTEC) hint at near normal temperatures and precipitation for Oklahoma. I want to believe it, but too many years after a strong El Nino suggest the opposite. In addition, expansive sections of the Pacific and Atlantic ocean's continue to experience unusually warm sea surface temperatures. This leads to an overall warming of the atmosphere which can enhance temperatures by up to 2 degrees F. The one thing in our favour that may temper the heat is if; a BIG if.. we get ample rainfall this spring. That will increase evapotranspiration, increasing moisture in the lower levels, thus raising precipitation. The Gulf of Mexico continues slightly to moderately above normal sea surface temps. with the exception of close to the coastal sections from LA. to northwestern FL. This can only help with rainfall if high pressure sets up in the east and troughiness sets up over the intermountain regions. However, long range models project what could be an abnormally hot summer across much of the heartland and into the central and northern plains and midwest. This has merit in accordance to analogues of past years with similar weather patterns. Therefore, I can see a summer that may have it's wet periods initially but I still give it a high chance (65% chance) of it being overall hotter and drier than last year, but unlikely will have the hellish heat of 2011-13. My initial prediction is for places like Lawton, OKC and Tulsa to experience at minimum 15 days of 100F or better and maybe as many as 25 days. The hottest period should be in August with unseasonable heat persisting into early September.
I am projecting the El Nino to be history by early summer and for the Pacific equatorial basin to transcend into a mild La Nina (anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures) by early November. This will likely persist thru 2017 or at best be neutral (La Nada!). Typically, La Nina's bring cooler and overall drier winters and hot, dry summers).
Resurrecting this thread for the severe weather episodes that will be unfolding this upcoming week. Sunday evening, if storms do form could be vicious with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Best chances in northern OK. from Hydro/Kingfisher to Pawhuska on north.
Tuesday, if models verify, may be at the least a moderate risk day, maybe our first high risk of the season.. with a couple of isolated large supercell thunderstorms with all modes of severe weather possible, including violent tornadoes that could be EF3 strength or better. Now is a good time to review your severe weather safety rules and safe spots to go to as I give it about a 60% probability that there will be at least 3 or 4 damaging tornadoes within the state on this day.
Friday into the weekend could be another big event.. still the data is waffling on it though, but my feeling is more severe weather with possible tornadoes.
Later the following week, another round of severe weather could occur.
I still believe that this period we are now entering in and lasting to mid May will be the apex of our season, thereafter quickly transcending into an early summer pattern. I expect hotter and overall drier than normal conditions for the mid June thru early September time frame.
Please lets keep this thread afloat with your reports, questions, comments... whatever. I'll try to monitor this when I have time. All the best, be safe and weather aware.
Where would you say is the dividing line between the more humid/less humid parts of Oklahoma in summertime? I used to spend every summer near Poteau, Oklahoma, and the heat combined with the humidity made for a very uncomfortable situation. Part of my family just relocated to Tulsa, and I'm wondering if the Tulsa area ( or even further northeast, such as the Bartlesville area) would be less humid than southeastern Oklahoma. I ask because I am toying with the idea of relocating ( at least for 6 months) to OK from Southern California, but the heat and humidity are concerns.
So. Cal is too crowded and expensive, but we don't often get extreme heat and humidity.
Last edited by AnthonyJ34; 04-24-2016 at 11:31 AM..
Reason: Spelling
Where would you say is the dividing line between the more humid/less humid parts of Oklahoma in summertime? I used to spend every summer near Poteau, Oklahoma, and the heat combined with the humidity made for a very uncomfortable situation. Part of my family just relocated to Tulsa, and I'm wondering if the Tulsa area ( or even further northeast, such as the Bartlesville area) would be less humid than southeastern Oklahoma. I ask because I am toying with the idea of relocating ( at least for 6 months) to OK from Southern California, but the heat and humidity are concerns.
So. Cal is too crowded and expensive, but we don't often get extreme heat and humidity.
I think the line is pretty much down the middle of the state, generally speaking. Say along with I-35. Western Oklahoma is more desert therefore less humid than eastern Oklahoma which is much greener. This is just an estimate though. The whole state gets pretty darn hot!
I think the line is pretty much down the middle of the state, generally speaking. Say along with I-35. Western Oklahoma is more desert therefore less humid than eastern Oklahoma which is much greener. This is just an estimate though. The whole state gets pretty darn hot!
The poster gives the impression that socal is cooler in summer than OK... depends on where you live. I lived in Riverside and during summer it was more the rule over the exception that it would be over 100. 110 wasn't unusual. It was dry but not desert dry and it felt every degree of that. OK is more humid and hot, in comparison. Add in the thick smog during spring and summer which looked like a dull grey cloud, and OK feels a lot more comfortable.
One great advantage OK has is its air is not grey goop even in the more crowded areas. One main reason I had to be out of Riverside was I'd make it about a block before I had to get inside or at least sit down. Even if you don't feel the damage, it effects you. I've been told I have reduced lung capacity from growing up in heavy smog.
I will say that the storms there are loud and messy, more likely to do damage from floods, but they don't have the scary days like tomorrow, which I'd just like to have over.
The dry line's getting active in SW OK, with a tornado warning for Tipton. Pretty significant Doppler couplet in the vicinity. My in-laws in Fairview have been getting doused with rain, but no hail.
The poster gives the impression that socal is cooler in summer than OK... depends on where you live. I lived in Riverside and during summer it was more the rule over the exception that it would be over 100. 110 wasn't unusual. It was dry but not desert dry and it felt every degree of that. OK is more humid and hot, in comparison. Add in the thick smog during spring and summer which looked like a dull grey cloud, and OK feels a lot more comfortable.
One great advantage OK has is its air is not grey goop even in the more crowded areas. One main reason I had to be out of Riverside was I'd make it about a block before I had to get inside or at least sit down. Even if you don't feel the damage, it effects you. I've been told I have reduced lung capacity from growing up in heavy smog.
I will say that the storms there are loud and messy, more likely to do damage from floods, but they don't have the scary days like tomorrow, which I'd just like to have over.
You are right. Summer can be very hot in Southern California, depending on location. I live about 8 miles inland ( as the crow flies) from Seal Beach, so our weather here in Cerritos stays relatively mild in summer, but it still gets warm. Right along the coast the temps rarely get much above 80-ish, but the inland areas routinely get up into the upper-90s/low-100s. But rarely do we get southeastern-Oklahoma-style humidity along with the heat. But the smog does make the heat worse. The valleys get heavy smog days, as do some parts of the mountains. But the coastal areas have pretty good air year round, thanks to the sea breezes.
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Significant severe weather likely this week.
