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Thanks for the info Mr. F. My husband is getting an influx of stock in November of this year and May of next year, so our target for buying will be summer of next year, though nothing says we have to, but it would be nice to stop renting. We don't have a huge budget, but we'll have 20% for a $400,000 house at the end of next May. I guess we'll just wait and see where things go.
Oh I see, you picked only SFR sales. That's only part of the market, and condo prices and SFR prices are tied together economically speaking (as one is an alternative to the other).
That being said, even RedFin's incomplete data for SFR reflects what I was just saying, except the drop is even more drastic because Condo prices didn't sky rocket "as high" as SFR:
August 11th 2008: $298 a square foot
August 11th 2010: $262 a square foot
A 2,000 square foot single family residence on average, dropped by $72,000 during a period of heavy government stimulus into the market.
Without that stimulus, a $100,000 - $120,000 drop is very easy to see, especially since that would still technically bring these homes to early bubble prices (but closer to the historical norm of 1.3% appreciation over inflation before the bubble).
Thanks for the info Mr. F. My husband is getting an influx of stock in November of this year and May of next year, so our target for buying will be summer of next year, though nothing says we have to, but it would be nice to stop renting. We don't have a huge budget, but we'll have 20% for a $400,000 house at the end of next May. I guess we'll just wait and see where things go.
Thanks, again.
V. =)
Veronika, I have no doubt you and your husband will own a home. You two have saved the 20% down payment which shows discipline on your part that is rarely seen in this industry.
Don't fall into the "prestige" argument of renting vs owning. That is a marketing gimmick invented by our industry (I've been to many real estate seminars where "Pride of Ownership" is promoted as a marketing slogan of choice to entice buyers). When it comes down to it, you have your marriage, your health, and the pride of being a responsible, honest human being. That trumps any pride from owning something material such as a home, especially when you see the irresponsibility of those who dared call themselves "owners" in the past 8 years.
Be patient, save your money, and that $400,000 home will get a lot bigger by the time it's "right" to buy in this market.
Veronika, I have no doubt you and your husband will own a home. You two have saved the 20% down payment which shows discipline on your part that is rarely seen in this industry.
Don't fall into the "prestige" argument of renting vs owning. That is a marketing gimmick invented by our industry (I've been to many real estate seminars where "Pride of Ownership" is promoted as a marketing slogan of choice to entice buyers). When it comes down to it, you have your marriage, your health, and the pride of being a responsible, honest human being. That trumps any pride from owning something material such as a home, especially when you see the irresponsibility of those who dared call themselves "owners" in the past 8 years.
Be patient, save your money, and that $400,000 home will get a lot bigger by the time it's "right" to buy in this market.
Thank you again for your insight. You sound like an honest real estate agent, which is so hard to find. We had a wonderful, honest and very patient agent (he worked with us for 2 years, while we were trying to figure out the market) up in the Seattle area, and I'm hoping to find one here.
My only concern is my two kids (they are 2 1/2 and 1 1/2). Due to being raised by a struggling single mom, I've moved 40+ times in my life, and attended 18+ schools up through college. I want to buy a house and NEVER move my kids if I can help it. I pretty much only have the time constraint of wanting to own a place by the time they're ready for pre-K so we still have time. I'm not overly fond of the apartment we're renting, so the sooner we're out of here, the happier I'll be, but I don't plan on moving again until it's into something we own.
What subjective, intangible, unmeasurable differences are there? Is there a difference in the culture, the people, the "types" of people?
I don't live in either community but I've driven around them and researched them.
Ladera seems and feels more dense. Las Flores seems a little more spread out.
Las Flores seems like a subdivision; Ladera seems like a small town. Ladera seems like a package deal - you're buying more than a home - you're buying a place in an active organization.
Las Flores seems and looks like a community of more homogeneous architecture and design - the homes have a commonality though they aren't totally cookie cutter. Ladera seems to have all sorts of different styles/designs/architectures/periods on the same street.
Las Flores seems to be an appendix of RSM. Ladera seems more independent and isolated.
Ladera is served by three elementary schools which feed into one middle school yet kids from that one middle school are split between two high schools. Las Flores kids are all on the same school plan, the same elementary school, the same middle school, the same high school. That might have an effect on some kids' long term school friendships.
I'd just advise you to not feel into the trap of thinking Mr. Fantastic or anyone else actually knows what's going to happen. Been there, done that - saved money renting instead of buying for five years, lost money somewhere else anyway. There's better uses of your time than postponing a house purchase for five years (there's no guarantee this second slide down is actually going to happen anytime soon, if at all) to try and time the housing market using whatever anybody can read on pop economics blogs. It's not like the real estate slump is a secret anymore. I've been looking to buy in Ladera Ranch and all the pretty theories about unemployment and the impending second coming of The Crash fly out the window when you start facing the cold hard reality of actually finding & actually bidding on a house in Ladera.
When I started looking I was pretty nonchalant about it but after actually showing interest and bidding on some houses I was met with unexpected stiff competition. I'd certainly love for someone to hand me my next house on a platter for a 10% discount to listing but so far for the well priced houses that just isn't happening. And I'm looking for the larger >3000 sq. ft houses - you would think there would be less competition there, but no.
When you have the 20% down ready, I'd just focus on getting the right house instead of the timing. Lots of foreclosures and short sales in Ladera means prices are all over the place in Ladera. One guy will sell his house for 265$/sq. ft, the next week another will sell the same floor plan with a bigger lot and more upgrades for 30$/sq. ft. cheaper. It's pretty random. You'll get more out of knowing the local market than from trying to time it.
Your time would be better spent learning the ins and outs of which tracts you like in Ladera, finding the trends at the local level, and finding the prices for individual tracts and floor plans. North Ladera isn't really trending down that much because it was all built 2000-2002 and there's plenty of equity left there. People who bought in the 500-600k$ range at that time are still sitting on a good 200-300k$ in equity. Not much of a rush to sell, despite all the anecdotes.
Things get worse as you move lower south, with Covenant Hills being the latest and most upside down neighborhood. Still, besides the talk about Ladera being "foreclosure ranch", it's gone down ~30% from peak to current prices, more or less in line with Orange County trends. So for now Ladera isn't worse as anywhere looking at the numbers.
Veronika, we just went through a similar process (although for us, we were torn between Irvine and Ladera, two very different places, and we are renting since already own a house up north, in the San Francisco Bay Area, that we lease out). Obviously, we don't share all of the same concerns.
Regardless, we chose our new (rental) home because:
- The community is indeed a mini-city, with tons of amenities, parks, pools & aquatic park, and most importantly, walking trails.
- You can walk to shopping, schools, and people actually do it unlike in most other O.C. places we explored. Coming from Palo Alto, we were shocked to see empty streets with few people walking and biking. People seem to be married to their cars. In LR, we are finding a healthier lifestyle.
- The schools you listed are exactly the ones we wanted and got (Chaparral, LR Middle, Tesoro High) because they seem to be the highest-ranked combination/ path in a non-Irvine community.
- The community is pretty and well-maintained. I like the quiet library. The houses are not huge (ours is 2000 sq. ft., although we are comparing this to a 62-year-old, 1148 sq. ft. house in Palo Alto with one bathroom and appraised at $1.2 million). Also, the houses are spaced VERY close together - no yard, just a patio. We miss our spacious garden. But this lends itself to interaction with your neighbors. If your neighbors are friendly, like ours are, then this is a good thing. The risk is that it could go the other way.
- Overall, people (at least the adults) are friendly and cheerful. However, in spite of the ethnic diversity of our neighborhood and Ladera in general, we have run into a higher number of ignorant albeit well-intentioned people among school parents than we are used to, coming from the SF Bay Area. One person, for example, trying to be helpful told my wife that my daughter should connect with so-and-so girl because they are both "dark-skinned." This would apparently make her more comfortable??? Okay, we're in California, aren't we....
- The children are a different story altogether. We have yet to meet kids in the 9 to 13-year-old age range, especially girls, who are polite, friendly and welcoming, or even approachable. So far, most of the pre-teens we have met come across as spoiled airheads with little motivation to perform and succeed in school. Also, in a place that purports itself to be "conservative" and "family-oriented," a surprisingly high percentage of the girls (yes, including 12-year-olds) are allowed by their parents to walk around in tight tops with bare mid-riffs and sexy, "Daisy Duke" cutoff short shorts. Really short shorts. If my daughters tried to wear something like that at 16, I would still ground them. In other words, for the extremely precocious girls around here, fashion and boys seem to be the only focus. The boys are not too different. The ones we have met are smart alecks who try to be slick and cool. One came up to my daughter on photo ID picture day, during new student registration, and said something like, "Hey beautiful! Looking gorgeous?" (She was dressed nicely with hair brushed for the photograph.) When he got a piercing glare from her, he went off slinking.
But to be fair, this is something I have seen in most South Orange County communities, not just in Ladera. I guess it's just part of the culture. Let's see if my current viewpoint changes over time as we get to know the people and the area more intimately. Sigh.
However, in spite of the ethnic diversity of our neighborhood and Ladera in general.... exactly the ones we wanted and got (Chaparral, LR Middle, Tesoro High)
Ethnic diversity in Ladera Ranch?
Middle Schools, Percent White
Las Flores Middle 83
Niguel Hills Middle 76 Ladera Ranch Middle 74
Vista del Mar Middle 74
Redwood Middle 73
Arroyo Vista Middle 72
High Schools, Percent White Tesoro High 79
San Clemente High 74
Dana Hills High 73
Aliso Niguel High 68
Capistrano Valley High 64
San Juan Hills High 58
Junipero Serra High 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by missionhome
Ladera Ranch (which is probably the whitest community on earth)
Quote:
Originally Posted by OC Newcomer
The boys are not too different. The ones we have met are smart alecks who try to be slick and cool. One came up to my daughter on photo ID picture day, during new student registration, and said something like, "Hey beautiful! Looking gorgeous?"
So what's wrong with that? Sounds like a friendly, innocent compliment.
I've got three girls in Ladera Ranch AYSO and I haven't noticed anything totally whacked out with the kids. In fact, I've had a couple junior high school kids ride their bikes into my driveway and introduce themselves. I was thinking these guys are way more polite than I was when I was a junior high school punk.
Last edited by Charles; 09-07-2010 at 08:46 PM..
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