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Old 01-22-2011, 09:05 PM
 
5,381 posts, read 8,648,212 times
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Certainly some people want to move there, but younger folks don't particularly like stucco boxes and it is the younger folks that are going to support future prices.

I'm not sure what is do desirable about big stucco boxes in master planned communities, but this sort of thing seems to appeal to boomers. Of course, the boomers have peaked and the younger generations will redefine what is and is not desirable. In 30 years the stucco boxes in South Orange county could be low-income multi-unit housing, that is assuming they last that long.

5.3% is not the historic average for real estate gains. Long term real estate has poor performance, which makes sense, after all its only the land that appreciates the structure is a depreciating asset.

Anyhow, I would rent in Orange County, there is far too much downside risk to buy right now. Also, there is a black swan people seem to ignore, namely the "big one". A quake on the San Andreas is going destroy real estate values in Southern California.

Certainly some people want to move there, but younger folks don't particularly like stucco boxes and it is the younger folks that are going to support future prices.

I'm not sure what is do desirable about big stucco boxes in master planned communities, but this sort of thing seems to appeal to boomers. Of course, the boomers have peaked and the younger generations will redefine what is and is not desirable. In 30 years the stucco boxes in South Orange county could be low-income multi-unit housing, that is assuming they last that long.

5.3% is not the historic average for real estate gains. Long term real estate has poor performance, which makes sense, after all its only the land that appreciates the structure is a depreciating asset.

Anyhow, I would rent in Orange County, there is far too much downside risk to buy right now. Also, there is a black swan people seem to ignore, namely the "big one". A quake on the San Andreas is going destroy real estate values in Southern California.
Sorry, but many master-planned communities are actively considering the future, and take it into consideration when arranging ease of access to shopping and other amenities. Planned communities like Aliso Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita and Ladera Ranch make it easier for people to spend more time close to home. So, it’s not by accident that these areas are attracting a primarily young demographic.

Published: Dec. 31, 2010
Updated: Jan. 1, 2011 10:13 a.m.
Aliso Viejo plans a greener future
Aliso Viejo plans a greener future | green, city, residents - News - The Orange County Register
A commitment to the environment also has an effect on the city's future demographics. Studies have shown that people in their 20s value living close to their jobs, shopping and entertainment. Less sprawl means less driving time and fewer greenhouse emissions, Armijo said.
"The suburban ideal is not as important to them as it is to the boomers," he said of younger adults.
Cutting down on sprawl could mean changing approved land use in some areas, Armijo said, although all Aliso Viejo residents are already within 2 ¾ miles of shopping and entertainment at Town Center.
"That's a really nice opportunity we have," he said.
Being more environmentally conscious will help the city continue to attract young, educated residents who have disposable income, Cave added. And with a growing population using natural resources, going green makes sense, she said.
"Why not be at the forefront?" she said.

Last edited by pacific2; 01-22-2011 at 09:21 PM..
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:10 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
964 posts, read 2,642,182 times
Reputation: 578
Quote:
Originally Posted by pacific2 View Post
Sorry, but many master-planned communities are actively considering the future, and take it into consideration when arranging ease of access to shopping and other amenities. Planned communities like Aliso Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita and Ladera Ranch make it easier for people to spend more time close to home. So, it’s not by accident that these areas are attracting a primarily young demographic.

Published: Dec. 31, 2010
Updated: Jan. 1, 2011 10:13 a.m.
Aliso Viejo plans a greener future

Aliso Viejo plans a greener futuregreen, city, residents - News - The Orange County Register

A commitment to the environment also has an effect on the city's future demographics. Studies have shown that people in their 20s value living close to their jobs, shopping and entertainment. Less sprawl means less driving time and fewer greenhouse emissions, Armijo said.
"The suburban ideal is not as important to them as it is to the boomers," he said of younger adults.
Cutting down on sprawl could mean changing approved land use in some areas, Armijo said, although all Aliso Viejo residents are already within 2 ¾ miles of shopping and entertainment at Town Center.
"That's a really nice opportunity we have," he said.
Being more environmentally conscious will help the city continue to attract young, educated residents who have disposable income, Cave added. And with a growing population using natural resources, going green makes sense, she said.
"Why not be at the forefront?" she said.
I think you're responding to the post 68???, as I agree with what you wrote. Consider using quotes to tie your response to the post you're contending, otherwise it get's confusing.
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:11 PM
 
5,113 posts, read 5,949,358 times
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Originally Posted by proudmommy View Post
First of all, most of the people who are buying in the newer master planned communities are the younger set, the 25-35 year old families with young kids.

And the younger generation is going to redefine style? To what? Something different than what the younger generation has desired for the past 100 years? Some other than SFRs in nice, safe, neighborhoods with good schools? Something "cool and urban"?, Ya right. Nothing like raising kids next to some dude puking in an alley.

Next, "stucco boxes" are probably 95% of the SFRs built in past 60 years, they're nothing new - look at the entire San Fernando Valley - tract homes - and there's a lot less diversity of style on any street than there is on newer masterplanned communities. Builders went to great lengths to ensure as few as possible homes on the same street look the same.

I don't think anyone is implying 5.3% is the historical average.

An earthquake will only destroy the structures and by your own words, those are depreciating assets. A quake won't destroy the land or make the location any less desirable.
Do you live in a HOA community?
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:15 PM
 
394 posts, read 964,306 times
Reputation: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by proudmommy View Post
An earthquake will only destroy the structures and by your own words, those are depreciating assets. A quake won't destroy the land or make the location any less desirable.
You make some very valid points. BUT, an earthquake of significant magnitude (a very likely prospect, BTW) could destroy the freeway systems, disable the power grid and generation plants, damage the water mains, make sewer systems and sewage treatment plants inoperable, turn many man-made hillsides and housing plains into quicksand and make life in SoCal un-bearable. And the State of California can't even balance the budget, let alone rebuild the entire infrastructure of the southern half of the state...
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:18 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
964 posts, read 2,642,182 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Don9 View Post
Do you live in a HOA community?
Yes. Las Flores.
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:19 PM
 
5,113 posts, read 5,949,358 times
Reputation: 1748
Quote:
Originally Posted by pacific2 View Post
Sorry, but many master-planned communities are actively considering the future, and take it into consideration when arranging ease of access to shopping and other amenities. Planned communities like Aliso Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita and Ladera Ranch make it easier for people to spend more time close to home. So, it’s not by accident that these areas are attracting a primarily young demographic.

Published: Dec. 31, 2010
Updated: Jan. 1, 2011 10:13 a.m.
Aliso Viejo plans a greener future
Aliso Viejo plans a greener future | green, city, residents - News - The Orange County Register
A commitment to the environment also has an effect on the city's future demographics. Studies have shown that people in their 20s value living close to their jobs, shopping and entertainment. Less sprawl means less driving time and fewer greenhouse emissions, Armijo said.
"The suburban ideal is not as important to them as it is to the boomers," he said of younger adults.
Cutting down on sprawl could mean changing approved land use in some areas, Armijo said, although all Aliso Viejo residents are already within 2 ¾ miles of shopping and entertainment at Town Center.
"That's a really nice opportunity we have," he said.
Being more environmentally conscious will help the city continue to attract young, educated residents who have disposable income, Cave added. And with a growing population using natural resources, going green makes sense, she said.
"Why not be at the forefront?" she said.
Now that article is scary and one of the reasons why I will never buy in a HOA community. If I put out the big bucks for a home then it's my home 100% and no one except city ordinance can tell me what I can and can't do.
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:21 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
964 posts, read 2,642,182 times
Reputation: 578
Quote:
Originally Posted by robbybee View Post
You make some very valid points. BUT, an earthquake of significant magnitude (a very likely prospect, BTW) could destroy the freeway systems, disable the power grid and generation plants, damage the water mains, make sewer systems and sewage treatment plants inoperable, turn many man-made hillsides and housing plains into quicksand and make life in SoCal un-bearable. And the State of California can't even balance the budget, let alone rebuild the entire infrastructure of the southern half of the state...

Can't argue with you there, but where is this discussion going? Of course catastrophes are possible but there aren't too many decisions we can make to avoid them. We had big quakes in 06, 33, 71, and 94 - but that didn't seem to affect CA in the long run. A monster quake? FEMA and the federal government would step in but again, it's almost off topic to this thread.
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:21 PM
 
5,381 posts, read 8,648,212 times
Reputation: 4550
Quote:
Originally Posted by proudmommy View Post
I think you're responding to the post 68???, as I agree with what you wrote. Consider using quotes to tie your response to the post you're contending, otherwise it get's confusing.
Gotcha.
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:24 PM
 
5,381 posts, read 8,648,212 times
Reputation: 4550
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don9 View Post
Now that article is scary and one of the reasons why I will never buy in a HOA community. If I put out the big bucks for a home then it's my home 100% and no one except city ordinance can tell me what I can and can't do.
To each his own. A master-planned community is definitely not for everyone. BTW, I didn't include the entire article, but Albert Armijo is Director of Planning Services for the City of Aliso Viejo.
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Old 01-22-2011, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
964 posts, read 2,642,182 times
Reputation: 578
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don9 View Post
Now that article is scary and one of the reasons why I will never buy in a HOA community. If I put out the big bucks for a home then it's my home 100% and no one except city ordinance can tell me what I can and can't do.


I would never live in a community that didn't have a strong, established, HOA.
Yes, I want people telling me what color house I can have.
Yes, I want people telling me that my grass is too long.
Yes, I want people telling me I can't put a 100 foot ham radio antenna in my back yard.
Yes, I want people telling me I can't park my boat with the blue tarp on it in my front yard.
Yes, I want people telling me I can't park an RV on the side of my house.
Yes, I want people telling me I can't leave my garage door open.
Yes, I want people telling me my trashcans can't be visible from the street or by the neighbors.

And from

Do homeowners associations raise property values? - Free Online Library:
"these organizations were practically unheard of in 1960, but today some 54.6 million people in the United States live in various neighborhood associations. That figure continues to rise each year "
and
"We have shown that HOAs increase house value. Our data indicate that houses in HOAs in Northern Virginia are worth, on average, more than 5 percent more than similar houses in the same neighborhood but outside of HOAs. Given those large advantages, it is not surprising that HOAs are growing rapidly."
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