Strong markets indicate housing turnaround in Spring 2008!

[Charles]

"housing excess will be gone by the end of 2011. At that point, Orange County could quickly create another housing shortage in 2012, 2013 and beyond. In other words, the builders are more right and the shadow supply meisters are wrong."

from


Analyst: O.C. housing shortage coming soon - Lansner on Real Estate - The Orange County Register

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Charles

"housing excess will be gone by the end of 2011. At that point, Orange County could quickly create another housing shortage in 2012, 2013 and beyond. In other words, the builders are more right and the shadow supply meisters are wrong."

from


Analyst: O.C. housing shortage coming soon - Lansner on Real Estate - The Orange County Register

Charles, I think it will be longer than that. I would guess 3 more years before you see a turn around. I do think things have bottomed out, I think the job market will slowly recover but not for aboout another year or so and all the surplus property has to get sold.

Nita

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Charles

... the builders are more right and the shadow supply meisters are wrong." (from the Orange County Register)

Interesting; that's the opposite of what the L.A. Times said yesterday, but they're referring to a shadow inventory across the country.
Home sales and shadow inventory: 'Shadow inventory' of 1.8 million homes could prolong housing slump - latimes.com

[Vascodagama]

There are still a ton of mortgages that have not reset yet and when they do you will see another big wave of defaults. There are no positive indicators currently in the housing market. The future indicates much worse conditions.

CoreLogic Estimates Shadow Inventory at 1.8 Million Homes

"..., two studies, one conducted by the National Association of Realtors® and the other released by CoreLogic, follow different methodology but arrive at similar conclusions: shadow inventory is substantial, it will take a long time to clear it out, home prices will be pressured downward and it will strain the economy."

Case Shiller: Home Prices Sink, Double Dip Looms

Home prices in 11 key markets reached new lows in the month of January, according to housing data released Tuesday, rekindling fears of a double dip in the housing market. Of the 20 housing markets surveyed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, only two metropolitan areas -- Washington, D.C., and San Diego-- posted year-over-year growth. The 11 cities that suffered new lows in December -- among them, New York, Las Vegas, Tampa and Detroit -- sank further still in January, suggesting that prices have yet to bottom out in several markets.

[Charles]

O.C. homebuilding soars 146% - Lansner on Real Estate - The Orange County Register

[BRinSM]

increased supply will push prices down further if anything. i think it's pretty clear at this point that housing will remain flat at best for the foreseeable future throughout southern california.

[Coldjensens]

Originally Posted by BRinSM

increased supply will push prices down further if anything. i think it's pretty clear at this point that housing will remain flat at best for the foreseeable future throughout southern california.

Flat is an improvement.

[Vascodagama]

Home prices/values have continued to fall. The only reason price declines have slowed is the slow down in the foreclosure process or pause while the legal issues are being resolved. The NOD's are piling up though so once the issues are resolved we will see another huge wave of foreclosures come through.

[robabeatle]

^^^agreed

[serialdriller]

Agreed....brace yourself for round 2...

Orange county probably gonna feel it more this time.