O.C. GOP slides to 40% of electorate (live in, dangerous)

[Teckeeee]

Originally Posted by Yermum

Honestly doesn't surprise me much. The majority of Republicans that fled LA are dying off.

Asians and Hispanics moving in are usually dems.

The Asians in Irvine have money and vote conservative from my experience. People in conservative areas tend to vote conservative.

If you are talking Westminster that's a different demographic.

[rsmfan]

I think GOP will continue to slide here unless it goes through some kind of re-invention.
1. Some of OC was settled by conservative white flight from other areas. As this population passes on or moves, there is less motivation for this type of settler. The most desirable areas of southern CA are built out. If we want to live here, we have to make it here, and not keep moving on at the drop of something else newer down the road. One moving here, if white, will be OK with a multi ethnic community.
2. The defense industry was one of the big drivers for OC economy with solid jobs in the 1960s through at least part of the 1980s. See B1 Bob Dornan. This industry tended to have a conservative cast, at least up to the point of the funds they were getting from US treasury.
3. GOP has very backward policies on social issues. This is out of step with CA and even OC. Which tends to be socially moderate and more fiscally conservative.
4. My view is OC will eventually fall into place with other California coastal counties politically, probably in the next 10-20 years. This year I give Hillary Clinton about 50-50 to carry OC>

[Big L]

Point taken, but most of the far-left folks that I know here in Georgia voted for Clinton. The independents and more moderate Dems that I know here in Georgia went with Sanders.

[payutenyodagimas]

Originally Posted by Big L

This is true. The data in the article shows that while Democratic numbers have pretty much stayed the same, Republican numbers have dropped while "No party preference" has risen.


Bernie and Donald appeal to some because Bernie is not hard-left while Donald is not hard-right. I wouldn't vote for Donald even with a gun to my head (), but he is definitely not what most would have expected in a GOP nominee.

they wanted Cruz? Bush?

[NOLA101]

If Bernie is not Hard Left and Trump is not Hard Right, wow, I would like to see who is. One is a Socialist, the other basically a Fascist.

[CaliRestoration]

I'd agree on Bernie. He checks all the relevant lefty areas; Socialized healthcare, socialized education, increased government regulation of private industry, etc. He's about as far left as you can get without going all-out Marxist.

I'd disagree on Trump though. Trump has been center left for the past 30+ years. He's recently gone center right (in the past 12 months). I don't understand the accusations of "facism", makes me wonder whether people know they are actually using the word incorrectly, or just using it as a blanket derogatory term.

[Yermum]

Originally Posted by Teckeeee

The Asians in Irvine have money and vote conservative from my experience. People in conservative areas tend to vote conservative.

If you are talking Westminster that's a different demographic.

I wasn't able to to find historic data with enough granularity to support either hypothesis.

But you really think that Irvine has not become more blue since the 1980's? I honestly don't buy it.


Here's a cool interactive map though with Census tract data! Anyone interested in this stuff should check it out.

http://www.ocvote.com/maps/#33.6626/.../type=results|

[Big L]

Originally Posted by payutenyodagimas

they wanted Cruz? Bush?

Although Trump "won" our county overall (Gwinnett), the numbers really weren't that far apart between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. In the primary, Trump had 32.50%, Rubio had 30.12%, and Cruz had 25.69%. The rest of the crowd took up the remaining 11.69% with poor ol' Jeb getting less than 1% of the vote.


The results were different in the county where I work (Fulton). Rubio actually won Fulton with 41.63% with Trump at 26.57%. Cruz was a distant third at 14.57% and Kasich had 12.53%. With the expection of Carson at 3.28%, the rest of the crowd all had less than 1% each.

[NewbieHere]

Originally Posted by Yermum

Did you see the data in the OPs article?

Party Registration means nothing. In my house hold I'm the only one registered as Republican, the other registered as Democrat and Independent and they both are going to vote for Trump.

[CaliRestoration]

South OC will carry solidly Republican come November. North OC too. Central OC... will slide Democrat.