Millennials simply can't afford to live in OC (San Diego, Compton: new construction, shop)

[LuvSouthOC]

Originally Posted by saibot

OK, let's play the real estate game. Coincidentally, it happens that my parents bought their family home in La Habra exactly 50 years ago, 1967.

They paid $40,000. According to an online calculator, that's the equivalent of $293k in 2017 dollars.

But is that house now valued around $300K? No, the zillow estimate is $928k. NOT even in the same ballpark!

How can anyone say it's as easy for homebuyers today as it was 50 years ago?

Nice foot work. It is not the same price in former dollars due to ever lowering interest rates during the last 30 years. Houses here are not a good long-term investment with continually increasing interest rates in our future.

[iExtrapolate]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Houston is still affordable because there is more open land around it and... the weather is not as nice as in OC and that turns a lot of people away. They have the room so land prices are not like OC, so not a good comparison. Plus Houston does have housing regulations and zoning.

Orange County is 1000 square miles & has a population of 3.0 million. That's 3000 people per square mile.

Houston is 600 square miles & has a population of 2.3 million. That's 3800 people per square mile

Those aren't platitudes. Those are hard numbers. Orange County is not significantly denser than Houston. The major difference between the two places is the regulatory environment.

With more people/square foot, Houston, TX has been able to keep housing affordable.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by saibot

OK, let's play the real estate game. Coincidentally, it happens that my parents bought their family home in La Habra exactly 50 years ago, 1967.

They paid $40,000. According to an online calculator, that's the equivalent of $293k in 2017 dollars.

But is that house now valued around $300K? No, the zillow estimate is $928k. NOT even in the same ballpark!

How can anyone say it's as easy for homebuyers today as it was 50 years ago?

No I agree it is not, but so what? That is life. Either make enough or you do not get to buy. No one has a right to live anywhere just because they want to. The prices would not be that high if there were not enough people who could afford it. CA was lower and my father bought one home for $9500.00 in 1952 in OC. Today it is worth $489,000.00. OK the number of people in OC then was less than 1 million and now it is over 3 million. People want to live in OC and have the money, or did in the past, and ... if you can't afford it, either improve your employment or ... move somewhere else.

I understand the frustration, but that is life. There are many other places to live that are afar less crowded or expensive and a better overall life can be enjoyed. True if family lives in SoCal it makes it hard, but again that is life. It is like saying I want a Ferrari but can only afford a KIA. OK, buy the KIA.

That is what I did, I bought what I could afford and could not buy in SoCal until I was in my 50's. I rented until then. I bought in 2000, sold in 2009 and now am buying my next home for cash and it costs more than the home in SoCal did in 2000, but I improved my financial position and ... only graduated from HS. It isn't easy and takes time, but it can be done of people focus on what they can do, not just want they want.

Other than some places where a collapse in Industry has occurred like Detroit, prices are going up and up and ... well more people, more investors and more foreign buyers exist. That will not change as the US and especially SoCal is a target now.

[iExtrapolate]

Originally Posted by payutenyodagimas

the antelope valley is waiting for developers and residents. but nobody is going there. why?

A significant portion of the higher paying jobs are close to the coast. There are builders who want to build homes there. There are people who want to buy the homes the developers will build there. What justification is there to stop the developers from building homes that people want to buy where there would otherwise be an abandoned oil field? "Why don't you just go to the Antelope Valley?" is not a rational justification for using force to keep someone from building a place for somebody to live.

Once again, I'm not a millennial who's butthurt that he can't afford to live here. I'm a millennial that can actually afford to live here, but the immature behavior and lack of economic understanding by so called adults that live in the area is frustrating and it really wipes out the quality of life for a lot of young people who don't have high earning power (most people can't/won't earn six figures; that's a fact of life). You would think people who can afford million dollar houses would be more intelligent, but I guess that bar really only applies to the new residents (not most older people living here).

[payutenyodagimas]

Originally Posted by iExtrapolate

A significant portion of the higher paying jobs are close to the coast.

you can only squeeze so much development into an area especially if infrastructures don't support it.


if the voters/residents want more development, then they should tell so by rezoning and providing more budget for mass transport if they really want high density cities


even Irvine Co who has the biggest landholdings for development still build SFRs instead of just building high rises/mixed use buildings

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by iExtrapolate

Orange County is 1000 square miles & has a population of 3.0 million. That's 3000 people per square mile.

Houston is 600 square miles & has a population of 2.3 million. That's 3800 people per square mile

Those aren't platitudes. Those are hard numbers. Orange County is not significantly denser than Houston. The major difference between the two places is the regulatory environment.

With more people/square foot, Houston, TX has been able to keep housing affordable.

The effective density of Orange County is actually 9,000 ppsm, as the eastern two thirds of the county are the Santa Ana Mountains, so everyone lives in the western 1/3 of the county

[pacific2]

According to the 2010 US Census, there were 3,807.7 people per sq mile in Orange County at the time. Land area is said to be 790.57 sq mi.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fa...rnia/PST045216

Houston, again, per the 2010 US Census, was said to have had 3,501.5 people per sq mi. Land area is said to be 599.59 sq mi.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fa...exas/PST045216

Therefore, OC is more densely populated than Houston. Also, even if a few developments in pricey RE markets have been scaled down, there is almost no unclaimed land available for new housing since OC has been nearly built-out. I think the largest single parcel, 25 acres, is in Aliso Viejo and owned by the US Postal Service.

BTW, in area, Aliso Viejo is a bit smaller than Laguna Beach (7.47 sq mi vs 8.85 sq mi) and is dense at 6,400.3 people per sq mi, per the 2010 census:
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/alisoviejocitycalifornia/RHI225216

2016 estimates put AV's population at about 51,424. So, that works out to about 6,884 people per sq mi; approaching 7,000.

Due to the fact that rentals are expensive in AV; new developments have opened since the 2010 census (with even more planned); Aliso is attracting millennials, some of whom come to work in IT, and many may be in shares, I strongly suspect that the next census will show AV's population density to be well over 7,000.


You listening, Houston?

[pacific2]

There are a number of affordable housing developments in Irvine, but not enough to meet county needs. You wouldn't even know, by looking at them, that these places tend to be for very low-moderate income families.

256-unit affordable apartment complex with resort-style pool, fitness center opens in Irvine
https://www.ocregister.com/2017/03/2...ens-in-irvine/
IRVINE – A brand new 256-unit affordable apartment complex with a resort-style pool, fitness center and dog park has opened in the developing Portola Springs community.

The rent price at Anton Portola is $876 per month for a one-bedroom apartment and $1,050 for two-bedroom, compared to the average asking rent of about $1,800 for apartments in Orange County.

The units are available only to very low income households, which make less than 50 percent of the area’s median income adjusted for household size. For example, the income limit for a family of three is $43,900.

Still, Anton Portola has exterior and amenities that make it indistinguishable from market-rate apartments, said Andy Davidson, vice president of construction for Anton Development Co., which built and manages the property.

Also:

First low-income family housing communities open at Irvine’s Great Park Neighborhoods
https://www.ocregister.com/2017/10/28/first-low-income-family-housing-communities-open-at-irvines-great-park-neighborhoods/

IRVINE — The first two all-affordable housing communities for low-income families in the developing Great Park Neighborhoods are now open, featuring clubhouses, a pool and a dog park.

There are a number of other affordable housing units in Irvine, like the one below, but obviously, not enough to meet demand.
Woodbury Walk | BRIDGE Housing

[DabOnEm]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

The effective density of Orange County is actually 9,000 ppsm, as the eastern two thirds of the county are the Santa Ana Mountains, so everyone lives in the western 1/3 of the county

Well the OC is not the only one with "effective" (weighted) density.

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Well the OC is not the only one with "effective" (weighted) density.

Quite true, Phoenix's density overall is 3,000 ppsm, but over 1/3 of the city is uninhabitable due to being mountains which are also parkland, so the useable area of the city is only 350 sq miles, which makes our effective density about 4,200 ppsm, and between McDowell and Bell Rd's (minus mountains) the effective density is almost 6,000 ppsm