Are we starting to hit the ceiling? (Irvine, Santa Monica: how much, big house)

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Caligirl8

I don’t know, this past month has been pretty telling seeing price reductions on homes for sale as well as rentals...

I don't see price reductions. I just see homes sitting on the market longer than they used to.

[ElDiabloJoe]

I agree with CA4Now. This feels like a Buyer's respite, a temporary plateau after the rush-rush-rush sizzling hot summer sales season. A temporary case of Buyer exhaustion.

There is no reason to expect a crash. The economy grew at a very high 4+ percent, unemployment is at record lows, salaries and wages are up, taxes are lowering, inflation is controlled, interest rates are still quite low (30 year fixed rates were 10% in the mid 90's and 20% in the 70's!), lenders are not allowing "stated income," the majority of loans are fixed and not adjustable, and the stock market is enjoying record highs.

There is no red flag indicating a hiccup in the economy for the foreseeable future.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe

I agree with CA4Now. This feels like a Buyer's respite, a temporary plateau after the rush-rush-rush sizzling hot summer sales season. A temporary case of Buyer exhaustion.

There is no reason to expect a crash. The economy grew at a very high 4+ percent, unemployment is at record lows, salaries and wages are up, taxes are lowering, inflation is controlled, interest rates are still quite low (30 year fixed rates were 10% in the mid 90's and 20% in the 70's!), lenders are not allowing "stated income," the majority of loans are fixed and not adjustable, and the stock market is enjoying record highs.

There is no red flag indicating a hiccup in the economy for the foreseeable future.

True, but those who can't afford a home want a collapse regardless of who it hurts.

[BB_210]

I agree with the sentiment, prices seem to have topped out, but don't expect major reductions.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by iExtrapolate

The 2008 housing collapse in California was the second best investment opportunity available to the general public ever.

What was the first?

[payutenyodagimas]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

What was the first?

after the war, when OC was really full of oranges, when the freeways were being built, before Disney was built

[pacific2]

Statewide, sales are down and prices are up:

Sales declines signal housing market shift, Realtor economist says
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/09/17/sales-declines-signal-housing-market-shift-realtor-economist-says/

Sales were down in all four counties covered by the Southern California News Group, dropping 8.9 percent in Los Angeles County, 9.7 percent in Orange County, 6.6 percent in Riverside County and 4.3 percent in San Bernardino County.

The trend matches what’s been happening statewide, as the cost of buying outstrips the capacity of more and more home shoppers...

The median price of a Los Angeles County house – or price at the midpoint of all sales – hit a record $607,490 in August, up 6.4 percent year over year. In Orange County, the median soared to a record $838,500, up 6.3 percent.

The median price of a Riverside County house was $400,750, down from the previous month but up 3.2 percent year over year. In San Bernardino County, the median was $290,000, also down from July but up 7.4 percent from August 2017 levels.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by pacific2

Statewide, sales are down and prices are up:

Sales declines signal housing market shift, Realtor economist says
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/09/17/sales-declines-signal-housing-market-shift-realtor-economist-says/

Sales were down in all four counties covered by the Southern California News Group, dropping 8.9 percent in Los Angeles County, 9.7 percent in Orange County, 6.6 percent in Riverside County and 4.3 percent in San Bernardino County.

The trend matches what’s been happening statewide, as the cost of buying outstrips the capacity of more and more home shoppers...

The median price of a Los Angeles County house – or price at the midpoint of all sales – hit a record $607,490 in August, up 6.4 percent year over year. In Orange County, the median soared to a record $838,500, up 6.3 percent.

The median price of a Riverside County house was $400,750, down from the previous month but up 3.2 percent year over year. In San Bernardino County, the median was $290,000, also down from July but up 7.4 percent from August 2017 levels.

Along with becoming the 6th largest economy, California’s housing market has been the best performing of any and that’s music to the ears of investors. Zillow gives it a healthy 8.8 out of 10 and forecasts of 9.3% price growth. California has less owners with negative equity and fewer delinquent mortgages.



https://blog.managecasa.com/californ...market-report/


This screen capture from Zillow reveals prices are on a steady incline and show no quit. The forecast is for further price appreciation.


The market typically slows after Summer, but the market is still going up in price, so no drop of any significant proportion is likely.

[Finper]

The first foreclosure is now in my complex since the crash. Hope this isn't a bad sign

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by expatCA

California has less owners with negative equity and fewer delinquent mortgages.

That's not saying much. Considering the amount of appreciation since 2009, if you are in a negative equity position, you seriously messed something up.

A home I own in Laguna Niguel just recently went into escrow. Original purchase price was in the mid-$600k in 2012. Has been rented with ZERO down months for basically 5 and a half years at an average of $3,600 a month. That's approximately $240,000, or around $44,000 a year (salary of your typical admin assistant).

It's appreciated in price 160%.

I'm not saying this to brag, but to make the point that there are very few circumstances (that I can imagine) where someone actually comes out negative if they bought in the past decade.